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david D.

@secretsqrl123

Oct 3

what i am seeing..
death of a airforce.
the SU-25. ru numbers of fixed wing aircraft are 265. if you say that is too high lets halve it. 133. if so then the vast majority of the losses are SU-25s. of a fleet of 192.

if 100 of them are SU-25 losses (trust me its higher) that means that over half are gone. add into that, aircraft need down time, they need parts, and they will wear out needing depot lvl fixes

they are not getting down time and many are getting battle damage that cant be fixed on the runway, many are seen coming back with huge holes in them, needing a huge amount of parts... they dont have

Read 7 tweets

david D.

@secretsqrl123

Sep 30

what im seeing.
the speech today can have some effects.
1. give germany a chance to do the right thing.
2. ensure that the west opens up everything to the ukr, military surplus, production, and support.
3. will open more types of gear to come into the ukr.

4. will force countries on the fence to act (turkey / greeks)
5. will stiffen the fighting spirit of the UKR army
6. will force the ukr gvt to do some amazing combat attacks.
7. will force georga into doing something
8. force china to pick a side
9. aircraft (F16) in play

10. all the assets frozen in the west are now gone
11. you will see the amount of people fleeing russia increase and not slow down
12. ru will be forced to fill the new lands with russians.. this will mean more dead russian civilians coming home.
13. who will by oil now?

Read 4 tweets

david D.

@secretsqrl123

Sep 30

combat words.
breakout.
russians will try to do a breakout from lyman as we speak. it will probably be groups of 20 or less trying to go through the woods and towns in the rear to get to friendly lines. a small number of wounded or dead enders will stay behind

if the ukr army does its job and links up this will mean groups of mostly disarmed ru troops will be running into ukr paratroopers in the woods. without support it will probably go bad for the ru troops.

BUT you want the ru forces to try for a breakout. small groups of nearly unarmed troops in the clear running is far better than facing them dug in lyman thinking they have nothing left to lose. having them give up there positions, supplies, and armor is the best plan

Read 4 tweets

david D.

@secretsqrl123

Sep 29

this is what i have been predicting "The lack of equipment for transporting personnel of the occupation troops is planned to be supplemented by the mobilization of civilian trucks and cars." they are drafting civilian vehicles for combat.

the civilian vehicles are needed for the russian economy. taking 30-40,000 trucks away from the economy will do great things (not ). who is going to move food, and products for the civilians? and who is going to maintain the vehicles drafted?

they are not sturdy military spec vehicles for off road, they are on road vehicles that require different parts and maintenance the army is not ready for. soon you will see fields full of thousands of wrecked, burned, and trashed trucks that were abandoned for things like filters

Read 4 tweets

david D.

@secretsqrl123

Sep 28

for the first time in about 70 years russia is going to have to field large light infantry units. in the 1950s for the most part all of the russian army, marines, and airborne were all given armored vehicles.

the issue is that i have been tracking this and about 3 months ago stockpiles of AFVs started to run out. first BMP3s, then BMP2s were running out from storage. a BMP2 loss was replaced by a BMP1.

then as the upgraded BMP1s ran out you started to see more and more with sagger launchers still installed (OLD)... then russians reported that BMP units would get MTLB replacements...

Read 6 tweets

david D.

@secretsqrl123

Sep 23

what im seeing...
this thread is probably going to be a eye opener for some and piss others off. but i want to say something and back it up...
russia has lost or will lose 100,000 troops (dead).
i think the ukr numbers are a little low, and the western numbers are just crazy low.

and here is why, and how i got there....
the army. pre war it was about 300K
add on to that about 300K in the res forces (both normal res and BARS forces)...
it seems they have been used up to a point that only 1 new unit really has been formed (3rd corps) but all other units

are 30-70% manned now. divisions are having to combine and more and more im seeing disbanded or units not talked about any more. and more and more units are listed as just ... crushed (4th tank) unable to function due to losses.

Read 13 tweets

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