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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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Oct 2 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Drawing the second half. Not bad at all.
😂
Get in. Great second half performance. 😂
Good to show a bit of pride. Score is same as 2-1 really, in ratio terms. 😂
#alwayslookonthebrightsideoflife
Have you thought of it like this… minus Haaland - that’s a very respectable 3-3 draw.
Thanks.
😂
With the rate of goal scoring in the last 7 minutes, we’d have won, had they granted extra time, and that rate had been sustained.

And we scored the best goal.

Thanks.
One has to note however, in the spirit of magnanimity, that with gas prices so high, all of its downstream derivative industries, are likely to outperform, at this time.

At least in the first half.
😂

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
Oct 3
When I blogged that a U-turn was inevitable a week ago, the pushback was pretty intense…

bbc.com/news/business-…
Asked by Nick R about my story that OBR was sidelined from issuing a forecast alongside the mini budget, and whether he agrees it was a mistake given market reaction, part of a wider mistake of ignoring independent advice “I don’t recognise that at all… we acted at high speed”.
Chancellor says it is a complete distortion to say there is a “Kwarteng premium” of £960 a year on mortgages…

He says last weeks moves are down to the US Fed rises, dollar rises etc.

…
Read 8 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Oct 2
Former Cabinet minister Michael Gove tells LauraK “a number of mistakes were made last Friday” in the mini budget
PM says “I understand how worried people are… these are global problems.. we had to act”…

“I stand by the package… but I do accept we should have laid the ground better”
This is the 5 year Govt borrowing chart from past month Laura just showed - first step up is the mini budget - note almost imperceptible impact of the energy announcement on June 8th
Read 8 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Sep 30
NEW
Not a great surprise…

Standard & Poors announces UK sovereign rating now on negative outlook from AA rating due to “rising risks to UK fiscal position… sizeable budgetary loosening announced Sep 23rd risk a substantial widening of the U. K. 's fiscal imbalances”
S&P: mini budget measures: “we believe risk raising cost of government borrowing and complicating the task of bringing inflation, which measured 9. 9% in August 2022, under control.”

“we estimate general government deficit will rise to an average 5. 5% of GDP annually 2023-25”
S&P: “for now it is unclear whether the government plans to ultimately introduce fiscal consolidation measures to bring debt back on a downward path and we assume that the package will be funded by debt, as announced.”

Ie they don’t believe current fiscal promises
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Sep 30
As PM meets OBR, £ is back up to USD levels during mini budget..

Not aware of precedent for this, eg Chote didnt meet Cameron in this way.

..OBR, whose offer of mini budget forecast was rejected, despite having provided a draft on first day of administration, in strong position
Why strong?

OBR demonstrate fierce independence, by insisting on offer of forecast and publishing transparent letters detailing how rejected.

Now, as Charlie Bean told World Tonight, he anticipates that Treasury might disagree with OBR over long term growth impact of Govt plans
Ex OBR/ BoE’s Bean says “quite likely” Chancellor/PM will take “different view” on impact of supply side policies incl tax cuts. OBR cautious without “genuine evidence” whereas gets sense Truss/ PM have a “particular view..not shared by bulk of economists or empirical evidence”
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Sep 29
NEW

OBR confirms on record my story from 9 days ago that it prepared a draft forecast for new Chancellor waiting for him on first day at Treasury 6th September, and that an offer for a legally compliant forecast to accompany the mini-budget was rejected.

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
In a letter from OBR chief Richard Hughes to SNP MPs @alisonthewliss and @ianblackford_MP

* We sent a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new Chancellor on 6 September, his first day in office. We offered, at the time, to update that forecast
“In the event, we were not commissioned to produce an updated forecast alongside the Chancellor’s Growth Plan on 23 September, although we would have been in a position to do so to a standard that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility”… OBR
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
Sep 28
Bank of England new statement:

Delays gilt sale which was start of reversing QE… will not hesitate to raise rates to return inflation to target
And announces purchases of long dated Government debt - so more QE like policy to help with financial stability as longer gilt yields spiral above 5%

NB not a monetary policy decision, MPC has been informed
Wow…

Bank for financial stability reasons is intervening in the gilt market, with a QE like intervention for long term bonds… reflecting high yields.

Was decision of the financial policy committee not the MPC who were informed.

MPC decision to start reversing QE pushed back
Read 9 tweets

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