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Vitaly Profile picture
@M0nstas
Oct 2, 2022 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 3 min read β€’ Read on X
Scrolly
Road T0403 is the route to Beryslav that supplies πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί foothold on Inhulets.
Checkpoints on a way to Beryslav:
1. Novooleksandrivka
2. Dudchany
3. Mylove - Novokairy
Is it for real?
T0403 crossings with internal roads.
Doesn’t look promising for any emergency retreat.
What about the weather in Beryslav?
🌧 + rural roads = RybarCraft
Ceasars can reach most of the rural area, while mech will take care of the road.
Break through was expected but unpredictable.
The regional T0403 road over the dam looks like it was already shelled.
How good all other roads should look like?

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More from @M0nstas

Vitaly Profile picture
Mar 25
Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad

By the end of November, the future appeared grim. However, recent successful operations by the AFU have brought a glimmer of hope, stabilizing the front lines pushing back the enemy.
Despite these positive developments, the battle is far from over.
0/13 Image
1/ After stabilizing the Kursk axis, Russia may shift its focus to Pokrovsk, aiming to secure the Malynivka road junction and the Udachne mine to sustain offensive momentum.
2/ Meanwhile, AFU are working to push Russian units beyond the Solona River and maintain control over the M04 and T0515 roads, which are critical for logistics and maneuverability.
Ukraine can also prepare some alternative path to M04 over the fields towards Dobropillia. Image
Read 15 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Mar 17
1/9 Threw russian reports into GSUA data to find some patterns.
New battlefield correlation data reveals fascinating insights into Russia's war tactics and reporting patterns. This matrix exposes key relationships - and potential misinformation - in combat operations. Image
2/9 Russian territorial gains strongly link with their attacks and troop losses. This confirms the "costly advance" pattern - Russia gaining ground primarily through persistent attacks and willingness to accept casualties.
3/9 What's striking is the disconnect between Russian advances and Ukrainian equipment losses. These operate as separate clusters with minimal relationship, suggesting Russia's territorial gains aren't achieved through equipment superiority.
Read 10 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Mar 15
0/7 Analyzing russia's combat efficiency in Ukraine through correlation data.
This matrix reveals key relationships between russian tactics, losses, and territorial gains - providing statistical evidence of what's working and failing on the battlefield. Image
1/7 Analysis of Russian losses in Ukraine reveals telling patterns. Combat engagements (repelled Russian attacks) strongly correlate with Russian troop losses (0.60), confirming the high casualty rate of offensive operations against prepared positions.
2/7 Russian guided bomb (KAB) usage shows negative correlation (-0.27) with combat engagements, suggesting these weapons are deployed separately from ground assaults, likely targeting rear areas while infantry attacks elsewhere.
Read 8 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Dec 9, 2024
#4Fun
There are 3 interconnected graphics: the number of repelled attacks and Russian losses @GeneralStaffUA
and territorial changes by @Deepstate_UA
While the raw data is difficult to interpret, applying a 7-day average reveals some patterns. Image
Image
The DS data has some lag and may require adjustments, but it offers valuable context, particularly for interpreting the number of unrepelled attacks. Since September, there have been five distinct spikes in Russian losses.
Notably, the correlation between attack spikes and loss spikes began to diverge after the Russian Kursk operation, shifting the losses wave function by approximately seven days relative to repelled attacks.

Each attack phase lasts roughly three weeks.
Read 6 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023
#Thoughts
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί "Lost" fortification section on the Volnovakha front.

There must be at least two lines.
Majority of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί fortifications are build on the hill behind the water stream and the link between those valleys.
For some reason second line is missing on the Vremiivskiy lendge. Image
Without control of Vuhledar there was no chance to build anything along Kashlahach river.
The ledge made the area too deep to justify the construction 25km away from the front.
Incomplete uneven fronts complicates and hight expectations postponed the decision, So non were build. Image
While @Nrg8000 map shows a continuous lines of fortifications.
@AndrewPerpetua use dots in the data representation. Image
Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Jun 16, 2023
#Map #Volnovakha
Reports about πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ activities near Vuhledar opens another window of opportunity at Volnovakha.

The city is extremely important on that flank and for Mariupol liberation, there are no options to avoid the fight before any further movement.

Image
Volnovakha is a watershed, all the rivers goes there so its a natural direction for the offense.
Defense is defined by
a1. main fortifications protected by the streams and lowlands
a2. the forest that protects the city from the North.
a3. 20km deep buffer. Image
In order to break the city πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ should prepare the battlefield for it.
Important task is to cut of H20, but T0512 would be out of reach.
City is surrounded by the villages it would be a hard task to get over it.

Pavlivka - Petrivske - Krasna Poliana road is the starting point. Image
Read 5 tweets

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