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Oct 2 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 3 min read
Road T0403 is the route to Beryslav that supplies πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί foothold on Inhulets.
Checkpoints on a way to Beryslav:
1. Novooleksandrivka
2. Dudchany
3. Mylove - Novokairy
Is it for real?
T0403 crossings with internal roads.
Doesn’t look promising for any emergency retreat.
What about the weather in Beryslav?
🌧 + rural roads = RybarCraft
Ceasars can reach most of the rural area, while mech will take care of the road.
Break through was expected but unpredictable.
The regional T0403 road over the dam looks like it was already shelled.
How good all other roads should look like?

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More from @M0nstas

Vitaly Profile picture
Oct 1
September in 2 pictures
Enemy losses in numbers
KIA - 11260
Tanks - 357
APV - 604
Artillery - 284
MLRS - 49
Anti-air - 23
Aircraft - 30
Copter - 21
UAV - 58
Missiles - 50
Vehicles - 547
--
Retreated from 9000 Km2
Still in control of ~115 000 Km2
Money pit (sponsored by my guess)
KIA (dead) - $2200M
Lada (crippled) - $1500M
Tanks - $700M
APV - $400M
Artillery - $400M
MLRS - $50M
Anti-Air - $200M
Aircraft - $600M
Copter - $200M
UAV(158) - $30M
Vehicles - $100M
--
Total ~ $6.5B
$3.7B are optional

Read 4 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Sep 30
Kupiansk - Svatove - Starobilsk axis
The Oskil front
Siversk counter offense
Read 5 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Sep 29
While πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί is fortifying Lynam and waiting for the reinforcement, πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ want's to cut all the available routes for that.
The Krasna river upstream basin is covered by ravines and shaped by 3 tributaries Kobylka, Duvanka and Hnyla.
The area is poorly developed with roads in the valleys along the rivers.
The most mobile army will benefit the most from this terrain.
Hills are NW-SE oriented that makes them less attractive for defense
Main roads
P66 - Shortest route πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί - Troitske - Nyzhnia Duvanka - Svatove. The backbone of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί supply, the closes one to front line in the valley of Hnyla river and already looks more like a route than a road.
There is a detour through Tymonove that leads to Nyzhnia Duvanka.
Read 8 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Sep 27
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ development of Lyman front and expansion of Kupiansk - Dvorichna foothold opens up a lot of options an a battle for Svatove.
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί troops are squeezed from 3 sides and still holding their positions assumingely without full information. Image
1. Main Oskill foothold Sviahohirsk -Borova axis
2. Kupiansk bridgehead has also expanded in last days
3. Lyman defense with Zarichne -Kreminna corridor.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ managed to strike in the middle of it, according to πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί sources, and moving uphill to meet at Nevske
4. Zherebets offense - target to close up πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί troops in Lyman by catting of any escape routes over this area.
Western banks are steep and forested so πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ can throw defense into a valley.
Unfavorable terrain is marked by absence of fields. Image
Read 8 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Sep 21
What does 300 000 mobilized units means
3rd AC was prepared in 3 months and that was 15k
300k ~ 20 Corps's
How long could it take and what the structure of those regiments would be
In a pink world 300k personal is enough to form 375 BTG
It would need
3750 Tanks
8000 APVs
6750 Artillery/MLRS
3750 Anti-Air

Personal munition isn’t count.
All of this should be prepared and transported to the front line.
So what about πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί reserves to meet this goal
Once again best charts from @Volodymyr_D_
Let's assume that only 30% are in proper conditions
13k (4k) Tanks
15k (4.5k) APVs
7k (2k) short range / 5k (1.5k) long range Artillery
3k (1k) MLRS
Read 15 tweets
Vitaly Profile picture
Sep 19
From 29 of August by OC South reports Russia has lost 125 Tanks
In case there were 30BTGs ~ 300 tanks Ukraine has managed to destroy 40% of all available tanks in the area.
The front should fall on 30% threshold.
Also 125 Artillery units were lost both towed and self propelled.
It's should be a half of all the available artillery according to original estimates
also more than 60% of original tanks were destroyed
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί should be close to the edge, or is it?
in 2014 these BTGs comprised a tank company, three mechanised infantry companies, two anti-tank companies, two or three artillery batteries, and two air-defence batteries.
Wiki showed this:
Read 6 tweets

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