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Oct 2 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
More and more stories about the Ukrainians making a significant advance in Kherson Oblast--mostly seem to be pushing down from the north along the Dnipro.
Here is one attempt to map it--thought this cant be confirmed at present.
The specific locations mentioned seem to be coming from Russian online chatter. If this is accurate, its a major problem for the Russians, will probably have to retract their line significantly from the north east.
@DefMon3 attempt to map what might be happening (again he admits that this has yet to be confirmed. If accurate, you can see what I mean about the Russian postion in the north being in real peril.
more reporting of a possible 'collapse' of the Russian line in Kherson.
stories that Russian command and control has broken down so spectacularly in Kherson that one unit has gone onto social media to beg for air support.
Some morning updates on Kherson.
Ukrainians seem to be pushing down the bank of the Dnipro.
Some photographic evidence emerging that the Ukrainians are pressing down from the North in Kherson.
Another map of the same advance
Now Russian sources are claiming that the Russian Army has pulled out of Dudchany and that there are no reinforcements on the way.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 3
The most interesting thing about the reaction to Elon Musk’s peace plan might be what it says about Russian and Ukrainian views of how the war is going. Russian media broadcast news of Musk’s ideas without criticism.
Whereas in Ukraine there is universal condemnation, which has even reached to Zelensky.
In other words, the Ukrainians are convinced that they will do much better than Musk’s plans, while the Russians aren’t rejecting it.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 3
It’s fascinating that it seems to be mostly those who were saying in February that Russia was so strong that Ukraine should be sacrificed that are now saying that Ukraine can’t be made too strong to save poor Putin from humiliation
I think what it shows is that the realists have no understanding of war. First they made it sound easy; with the awesome Russian army streaking forward like in some video game and taking whatever they wanted. Now they act like it’s some tap you can turn off and on with Ukraine.
Doesn’t work like that. You can’t just dial it up and down easily. Tell me what support in particular you want to stop to slow Ukraine down?
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 2
Been asked why I didnt make Putin's illegal annexation the story of the week. Actually, I think its being overstated in importance as Im not sure what it actually changes, beyond giving Russians a bad concert. Im skeptical for the following reasons.
1. The point of this invasion was to seize Ukraine. Putin made that clear in February. So annexation was always on the cards. This was just a cack-handed as Putin doesnt even control everything he annexed, as is painfully obvious even for Russians
2. I dont see how this makes the use of Russian nukes more or less likely. If Putin is going to use them its because he sees no other alternative to save himself. The government's been threatening nukes all the time, and drawn red lines that they dont enforce (Crimea)...
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 2
Weekend Update, pretty clear what the important development is of the week, and its this, not Putin's chaotic mobilization. The Ukrainian capture of Lyman points the way to how Ukraine is set on prosecuting the war against significant Russian military formations.
Wrote this yesterday. Think the way the Ukrainians captured Lyman and forced out Russian forces shows how they plan to fight the war in the coming months, as they basically try and drive the Russians out of the east and west by attacking logistics.
The Kharkiv campaign probably gave a false idea of how quickly the Ukrainians will be able to move. @MBielieskov gave a succinct description from the Ukrainian view. Basically they hit the Russians were they had too few forces.
Read 18 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Oct 1
Agree with this. Will tweet about this in more detail during my weekend update 2mrw, but the Battle or Lyman is in many ways more revealing than the Kharkiv campaign. The Kharkiv advance happened because the Ukrainians hit the Russians where they were mostly undefended.
That allowed a fast, deep advance into empty space as the Russians had nothing to slow the advance. What has just happened around Lyman is far more impressive in a way. The Russians had made this a major priority area for months, seemed to have lots of troops in the area.
So the Ukrainians had to methodically take on a much larger enemy that seems tolerably well armed. Still. The Ukrainians fixed them in Lyman, hit their logistics to the north and then surrounded the city from both sides. This requires planning and executing of the highest order.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 28
At @BritishAcademy_ conference on Russo-Ukraine War. Fascinating talk by @Joanna_Szostek on Ukrainian public opinion pre Feb 24. By 2020 A majority of Ukrainians were desirous of good and friendly relations with Russia, just wanting it to be based on 2 independent states.
And the Ukr city which wanted the best relations by far was Mariupol. There twice as many residents (42%) would have preferred a customs union with Russia over one with the EU (21%).
So Ukrainians were not automatically hostile to Russia or wanting conflict, Ukrainian public opinion was warning to Russia, and the Russians have proceeded to basically wipe out the most pro Russian part of Ukraine.
Read 17 tweets

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