Thread by @alexstubb

The war in Ukraine has short-, medium- and long-term ramifications. Few reflections on all three after Putin’s two recent speeches and the situation on the ground. Base case is still the same: Putin and Russia growing increasingly desperate. A 15 point🧵.

1/15

First, in the SHORT TERM it is naturally about war and peace. Russia’s strategy has not changed. The aim is to secure a land link to the Crimean peninsula and continue the weaponisation of energy. Testing limits of hybrid warfare by blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline.

2/15

The referenda and annexation of semi-occupied regions, combined with the partial and and times farcical mobilisation of troops, are a sign of desperation from Putin. He is losing on the battlefield, at home and abroad. Therefore strong language on nukes and nation.

3/15

Black swan would be a Russian declaration of a unilateral ceasefire. Would test the West’s resilience in Ukraine’s fight for its territorial sovereignty. Ukraine’s strategy continues to be to get back the lost regions with the help of Western arms, intelligence and finance.

4/15

Another black swan would be the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Threats, bluffing or not, have to be taken seriously. Nato is a deterrent, but Putin is wounded and unpredictable. Yes, rest of the world would turn against him, but he could already be in a ”so what”-mode.

5/15

In a world where principles often collide with reality, a transactional peace could be a scenario where Ukraine gets the territories back (including Crimea) and Russia avoids international prosecution. Controversial? Yes. Realistic? Probably not.

6/15

Second, in the MEDIUM TERM the West must start preparing for reconstruction and integration of Ukraine. This will entail money and difficult political decisions on both EU and Nato membership. Basecase is a divided continent, with a European Ukraine and isolated Russia.

7/15

Russia will not get through this without regime change. Essentially it is about whether it wants to live in the past or build a future. I predict unrest and even a partial dismantling of current Russia. Certainly a loss of influence in the region.

8/15

The big question is what kind of a regime will follow. After unrest and instability, the tendency is to go for hardliners who try to restore stability. This does not give much hope for democratic change in Russia, but you never know. Without hope, there is nothing.

9/15

The key variable in the medium term is Western resilience. Is Europe able to stay united over the winter or will Putin be able to split the pack? I predict he will not and that despite some noise from the flanks, Europe will continue to support Ukraine and sanction Russia.

10/15

Third, LONG TERM predictions always difficult, but here is a try. I am confident Ukraine will get out of this with its head held high. The opposite is true for Russia. The question is how humiliated and isolated it will be, and for how long. No-one knows.

11/15

At this stage it is clear that Europe will have a new security order. The OSCE was supposed to be the base, but Russia refused to stick to the rules. Is it going to be Versailles (humiliation) or something else? Ball is always in the court of the winners.

12/15

I keep stressing that this is not only about Russia and the West, it is as much about the West and the Rest. We live in a new world disorder where the basis of our international rules and institutions will have to be revised. This will not be easy.

13/15

A potential new division of the global order will require compromises, or to put it more bluntly, transactions between principles and realities. This does not mean that we need to give up our own values, but it does mean that not everyone will follow.

14/15

Final point: the war might be local, but its ramifications are global. In tech there is a saying that ”The best way to predict the future, is to invent it”. What is your take on all of this?

15/15