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Oct 3 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
BREAKING: Lithuania declares Russia's charge d'affaires persona non grata and asks him to leave within 5 days
Lithuania's rhetorical support for riots, defections and protests in Russia over mobilization are the latest point of tension between Moscow and Vilnius

Russia has accused Lithuania of Russophobia and distracting its people from its own "pressing problems"

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More from @SamRamani2

Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Sep 30
Alexei Navalny has written a new essay on the drivers of Russia's war with Ukraine and Russia's post-Putin political future

Some thoughts /1
Navalny's main argument is that defeat in Ukraine is not enough. The West should create a climate where Russia will never want to start a war again.

This is challenge, as "permanent mobilization," a large sanctioned economy and imperialism will tempt Russia to war /2
Navalny argues that Putin has a domestic off-ramp if Russia loses to Ukraine, as he will say that Russia was attacked by NATO and the collective West

The overwhelming focus on the West in today's annexation speech points to this /3
Read 9 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Sep 23
Four Russian State Duma deputies want to join the mobilization for war in Ukraine. Some more details /1
Dmitry Sablin, Deputy Chairman of the Defence Committee, was a key anti-Maidan activist who was involved in a June 2014 attack on Ukrainian border guards in Mariupol

Sablin also has extensive real estate assets in annexed Crimea /2
Vitaly Milonov, one of the most extreme conservatives in Putin's coalition, also wishes to join

Milonov has met with Yevgeny Prigozhin and his ally sociologist Maxim Shugaley in Donbas, which was officially linked to humanitarian aid /3
Read 5 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 30
Gorbachev played a key role in developing Russia's current influence in the Middle East. Some thoughts /1
Gorbachev facilitated Russia's normalization with Israel

Gorbachev decried the lack of Soviet-Israeli relations in 1987 and allowed for the emigration of Soviet Jews. A drastic reversal from the Soviet Union's prior "Zionism is imperialism" stance /2
Gorbachev also helped thaw tensions with Iran, which created a path to current cooperation

Khomeini's 1988 letter to Gorbachev and the 1989 Gorbachev-Rafsanjani Summit healed rifts over Afghanistan, and Iran's fears of Soviet support for communism in Iran and expansionism /3
Read 6 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 30
I spoke with some experts in Moscow about how Russia views Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson. Some thoughts /1
The prevailing view is that Ukraine's counter-offensive is unlikely to succeed in swiftly recapturing Kherson

Instead, it might resemble Ukraine's efforts to recapture land in Kharkiv region in early May and may not even be as successful as that /2
Ukraine's counter-offensive was aimed at diverting Russian forces from Donetsk but is even more tied to Russia's referendum push in Kherson

The view in Russia is that Ukraine will continue shelling targets in Kherson to prevent a referendum from being held /3
Read 6 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 24
Russia's Black Sea strategy has fluctuated markedly in the six months since the Ukraine invasion

As Ukraine targets Kherson and Crimea, Russia's Black Sea influence is under threat. Some thoughts /1
In the initial stages of the war, Russia's Black Sea strategy was the most successful component of its military operations

Crimea became a logistical hub, Russia swiftly occupied Kherson and blockaded the coast for Ukrainian exports /2
Turkey's blockage of warships via the Bosporous was not viewed as seriously problematic in Russia, as it also impeded the path of NATO warships

Russia proceeded to weaponize food and energy exports, and use its Black Sea presence to smuggle Ukrainian grain /3
Read 5 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Aug 23
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is approaching its six month anniversary

I have outlined the most significant implications of the war for Russian politics and foreign policy /1
The war illustrated the resilience of Putin's regime

Despite sanctions and military losses, Kremlin narratives about Ukrainian ultra-nationalism and the existential NATO threat have durably increased public support for Putin, his Cabinet and even the unpopular State Duma /2
The war shows that hardline nationalists pose a greater challenge to Putin than liberals

They pushed him to go all the way to Kyiv and urged him to reject diplomacy with Ukraine, while liberals went underground. They are now pushing for a general mobilization of society /3
Read 11 tweets

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