Kwasi Kwarteng: “What a day. It has been tough…no more distractions, we have a plan and we need to get on and deliver it.”#CPC22 Image
KK: “With economic growth everybody benefits and I mean everybody.”
KK: “the path we were on was clearly unsustainable. That’s why we’re cutting taxes for working people.”
Kwarteng: “I know the plan put forward ten days ago has caused a little turbulence.” Some awkward laughs in the audience. Given the chaos in the mortgage markets I wonder if by the end of the day that understatement will not only be on every news bulletin but feel ill judged.
Chancellor then says govt approach will be “backed by an iron clad commitment to fiscal discipline.” Which a) does not align with growth package last week which is anchored in unfunded tax cuts b) is another hint of departmental spending cuts to come.
Still remarkable to hear a Conservative Chancellor, after 12 years of Conservative government talking about rejecting the idea of “slow managed decline”
Kwarteng’s biggest applause is for pledging to “replace and repeal EU law which is holding our country back.”
Kwarteng: “I am unashamedly a pro-business Conservative.”
The speech showed that the government still isn’t willing to accept that its actions prompted much of the market unrest in the wake of the mini-budget. As a result of that it leads to comments like the “bit of turbulence line”- thereby prolonging political pain.

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More from @lewis_goodall

Sep 30
NEW: I understand “multiple” Conservative MPs are in talks with Labour in Parliament to defeat elements of the “mini-budget. Particular focus on 45p rate. Focus is on sending a signal to markets.

Only takes around 35 Tories to rebel for defeat.

More on my @LBC show shortly
More details here lbc.co.uk/news/tory-mps-…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 29
NEW: two new polls out show enormous leads for Labour.

Survation: 21 points
YouGov: 33 points.

That is wipeout territory for the Conservatives.
As I said, would be almost total wipeout for Conservatives l. Even Blair only had a 13 point lead in 1997. This would be Labour majority of over 300. Now these polls will probably settle but what will deeply concern Tory MPs is even if lead closes it’s a huge gap.
I’d also say that what these polls won’t reflect is the Lib Dems picking up more seats as a result of tactical voting. So situation for Conservatives may be even worse than it appears on headline polling.

You have to go back to 1998 to find a poll lead this big.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 29
Radio ivs brilliantly done but especially effective because of three fundamentals: 1) Truss not a good communicator 2) she doesn't have an answer to the key question- what good are tax cuts (or energy package) if their value is wiped out by the consequence of her other decisions?
3) Truss wanted to answer every question about the energy package for which she has derived almost no political credit. And that's because she changed the conversation by having the tax cuts along side it. It's too late to change it back.
Perceived (and indeed actual) incoherence is her problem everywhere right now. With voters on relationship between energy package, tax cuts, inflation and mortgage rates and with the markets which, do not buy the idea of fiscal policy and monetary policy working so at odds.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28
The only public comments we’ve had from the Prime Minister over the last couple of days have all been about foreign affairs: Ukraine, Shinzo Abe and Georgia Meloni.
Normally this would not be unusual given it’s been the Labour Party conference. But there have been, well, other events happening. No 10’s belief is that by saying nothing it is confident and doesn’t reek of panic. It’s an approach with which some Conservative MPs are not happy…
Looks like the silence will be broken tomorrow am though. Am assuming it’s part of a wider local radio broadcast round, if not fair play Tees have got a hell of a get…
Read 7 tweets
Sep 28
NEW: Bank of England to stage QE style intervention and buy long dated UK government debt. Huge intervention. Implies that if they don’t do so and therefore restore stability “there would be a material risk to UK financial stability.”
This, in response to the response of a government fiscal event, rather than larger external shock, is extraordinary.
Huge concern in the City about risk of contagion to other markets, pension, insurance etc (hence IMF intervention).
Read 8 tweets
Sep 28
A reminder that we were told one of the central points of Friday was to talk about growth and stave off a severe recession. Instead we’re talking about the IMF. Effect on the economy and confidence potentially chilling.
Example: we were told PM tonight stamp duty cut essential to ensure growth. Now we’re talking about a house price fall of 10%.
And again, this isn’t necessarily about the what but instead the how. If the measures had been in a proper budget, proper OBR process, proper mid term fiscal plan we would probably be in a different place. Suggestion this is markets’ fault/a left wing IMF is risible.
Read 4 tweets

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