GSUA reported 58 shelling locations today, there are roughly another 40 unnamed locations.
FIRMS Data: 2022-10-03_17:55
Added 24 locations to kml
Filtered 7 locations by proximity to other fires
Removed 47 false positives
Lyman
The AFU liberated Borova♥️, Shyikivka, Izyums'ke and Druzhelyubivka.
Borova makes me especially happy since I've been reading their telegram feed since early May. t.me/borova_gromada
GSUA reported shellings in Nevs'ke and Terny which confirms AFU advancing east of Zherebets river. According to rybar, advanced UA units are operating on the high ground overlooking the P66 road between Kreminna and Svatove.
Possibly a sighting of trucks from 237th Tank Regiment in the Kreminna area. t.me/sashakots/36191
Bakhmut-Donetsk
Nothing new on the eastern front. The Lada lottery keeps spinning, the RuAF are pleasing mothers in the Russian federation every day.
The AFU repulsed attacks in the following directions: Zaitseve, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Odradivka, Vyimka, Spirne, Nevelske, Mayorsk, New York, Pobyeda and Pervomaiske.
Kherson north.
I have seen a lot of evidence of a AFU advance down to the Dudchany area. I find the reports believable.
Things are starting to look "not great" for the RuAF in the northern parts of the Kherson region.
It seems like we once again have seen the Russian version of controlled retreat.
I want to thank everyone sending me information on Twitter and on Discord. I read every message, I try to respond but some times I just don't have time.
If you guys have not noticed (sorry if I'm Cpt Obvious), this is what the AFU seems to be doing.
They envelop a town trying to force a retreat. Every time RU retreats they loose equipment and personnel.
By keeping the Russians moving, they keep having to take position at unprepared locations. Lyman was the first major positions after the AFU crossed the Oskil river, RuAF had about a week or so to prepare defenses here before the AFU caught up.
We can already see the next envelopment in progress, and I expect we will see a similar situation as in Lyman where the AFU try to push around.
There has been rumors about AFU attempts to advance south of the SD river, and I believe these are part of that plan.
I think this is the next step. The Eastern AFU grouping will advance to the north of Kreminna and turn south east. This will force RuAF to retreat from Kreminna.
I think the Borova grouping will turn east while the Kupyansk group keep advancing to the south east to expand and connect the two bridge heads.
At this point I would expect attempts to envelop Svatove.
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The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992