1/ Elon Musk has too large an audience to simply ignore this, and others have eloquently told him to fuck off already (which I'm here for) but I'd like to go point by point and explain why his ideas are misguided and impractical.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000
2/ "Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision."
First, it's just insane to poll people in an active and contested warzone, even during a ceasefire.
The UN observers aren't staying forever. What happens to voters who vote the 'wrong' way after one side wins?
First, it's just insane to poll people in an active and contested warzone, even during a ceasefire.
The UN observers aren't staying forever. What happens to voters who vote the 'wrong' way after one side wins?
3/ Second, what exactly is Elon Musk picturing here?
Hypothetically the referendum happens and comes back with Donetsk voting to join Russia 53%/47% with UN observers reporting intimidation and irregularities at 26% of voting places.
What the fuck do we do with that?
Hypothetically the referendum happens and comes back with Donetsk voting to join Russia 53%/47% with UN observers reporting intimidation and irregularities at 26% of voting places.
What the fuck do we do with that?
4/ Third and most importantly, the premise here is that Russia is entitled to any territory it can partially/temporarily hold, if it can get local residents who haven't fled to vote a their way in a referendum while their army controls the streets.
That's not how anything works.
That's not how anything works.
5/ "Crimea formally a part of Russia as it has been"
Even the Istanbul negotiations, which Putin never truly backed but which American isolationists love to point to, did not go this far and instead fudged the question of Crimean ownership.
Even the Istanbul negotiations, which Putin never truly backed but which American isolationists love to point to, did not go this far and instead fudged the question of Crimean ownership.
6/ Setting aside the historical dubiousness of Elon Musk's claim, this isn't the middle ages or a game of Crusader Kings III.
You don't just get to keep any illegally annexed territory you can point to a historical claim for.
You don't just get to keep any illegally annexed territory you can point to a historical claim for.
7/ "Water supply to Crimea assured"
The idea that Ukraine has to not only cede its sovereign territory to Russia but also agree to provide it with guaranteed infrastructure services in perpetuity feels a bit rich, but compared to the other items on the list it's almost quaint.
The idea that Ukraine has to not only cede its sovereign territory to Russia but also agree to provide it with guaranteed infrastructure services in perpetuity feels a bit rich, but compared to the other items on the list it's almost quaint.
8/ "Ukraine remains neutral"
This is the one that really gets my goat.
What does "neutral" mean, exactly?
No NATO?
No EU?
Ukraine is in neither right now and Putin is ceaselessly referring to it as a puppet of the West regardless.
No western trainers or equipment?
This is the one that really gets my goat.
What does "neutral" mean, exactly?
No NATO?
No EU?
Ukraine is in neither right now and Putin is ceaselessly referring to it as a puppet of the West regardless.
No western trainers or equipment?
9/ So is Ukraine's 'neutrality' to be judged on a Putin's paranoia weighted curve?
Does Ukraine have to check every economic and foreign policy move it makes with the Kremlin first, in case it makes Vova nervous?
Does Ukraine have to check every economic and foreign policy move it makes with the Kremlin first, in case it makes Vova nervous?
10/ The right to freely enter into international treaties and alliances is a pivotal determinant of sovereignty. Foreign policy is, almost universally, the primary and defining characteristic of a national executive.
Why does Ukraine defending itself mean it loses this right?
Why does Ukraine defending itself mean it loses this right?
11/ More fundamentally, in what way does any of the above reflect a remotely sane balance of concessions reflecting where the two sides are today?
If absolutely everything goes Ukraine's way in Musk's scenario Russia merely leaves with a formal right to Crimea, losing nothing.
If absolutely everything goes Ukraine's way in Musk's scenario Russia merely leaves with a formal right to Crimea, losing nothing.
12/ Now let's look at this from Ukraine's point of view.
Let's assume that somehow, referendums conducted at Russian gun-point all yield solid "stay in Ukraine" results that Russia actually honours (bahaha).
Where does that leave Ukraine?
Let's assume that somehow, referendums conducted at Russian gun-point all yield solid "stay in Ukraine" results that Russia actually honours (bahaha).
Where does that leave Ukraine?
13/ They will have:
- Formally ceded Crimea forever;
- Pledged to supply Crimea with water, forever;
- Pledged to remain 'neutral' to Putin's satisfaction in perpetuity, presumably removing the NATO and EU ascension commitments in their own constitution.
- Formally ceded Crimea forever;
- Pledged to supply Crimea with water, forever;
- Pledged to remain 'neutral' to Putin's satisfaction in perpetuity, presumably removing the NATO and EU ascension commitments in their own constitution.
14/ What do they get in exchange?
A battered, exhausted and humiliated Russian army is allowed to retreat with dignity to rearm, retrain and resupply until the next time Putin or his successor feels the need to remind his people that WE WON WWII by restarting this shit.
No.
A battered, exhausted and humiliated Russian army is allowed to retreat with dignity to rearm, retrain and resupply until the next time Putin or his successor feels the need to remind his people that WE WON WWII by restarting this shit.
No.
15/ Bonus: Mr Musk is now questioning the election integrity of his own twitter poll, which I note wasn't even conducted at Russian gunpoint.
Perhaps he could bring in some UN observers?
Perhaps he could bring in some UN observers?
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