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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
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Oct 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Some things that seem to need emphasising. Poseidon is a Russian nuclear-powered torpedo that can be nuclear-armed. But what is being discussed (originally, here: repubblica.it/esteri/2022/10… ) is a POSSIBLE test of the PLATFORM, and NOT an explosive nuclear test.
it is also worth noting that Poseidon is scheduled for delivery in 2027. It is not a weapon that is relevant to this war. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… Image
Second, there is also buzz about movement of Russian units with nuclear roles. But movements of particular units need to be interpreted with care. A nuclear unit moving does NOT necessarily equal preparations for nuclear use. Note other possibilities:
Third, and relevant to interpreting such evidence, US officials have said as recently as today that they have detected NO operational preparations for nuclear use. edition.cnn.com/2022/10/03/pol…

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Oct 4
It’s been a long time since I saw a tweet as wildly irresponsible as this one. An issue that deserves care, caution and caveats boiled down to a sensationalist and highly misleading line.
First of all, the issue of the so-called nuclear train is far from clear-cut. See:
Second, Western officials say they do not see irregular movements.
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Oct 4
🧵 Western official comments on the war on October 4th, covering nuclear indicators & warnings, Russian mobilisation potential and battlefield changes in Luhansk and Kherson.
Western official on nuclear indicators: "We have not seen any indicators or activities that we would think are out of ... the norm". Repeats: "no indicators of further concerning movements of Russian equip, or units that might give rise to a higher concern [of] nuclear readiness"
Western official: "this week...we are seeing a Ukrainian military who are well and truly inside the OODA loop of Russia at the operational level...Ukr commanders in south & east are creating problems for Russian chain of command faster than the Russians can effectively respond"
Read 9 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Oct 2
Good panel at @HelSecForum on Russia. Arkady Moshes of @FIIA_fi: “Now people in the West understand that a frozen conflict is not a solution. It's at best a pause before a new phase of war, which will be worse & more disastrous than the previous one. That's a fundamental change.”
.@KofmanMichael: “Ukraine at this stage has momentum and the initiative and it has considerable advantages. The Russian military is at their most vulnerable heading into the winter, and that represents a strong window of opportunity for Ukraine.”
Kofman: “Europe needs to think about the measures they're going to take to support Ukraine economically, in terms of defence capacity, ammunition equipment…going well into 2023 The questions really about sustainability and long term sustainability of the effort”
Read 7 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Sep 28
.@larisamlbrown reports: "A suspected Russian sabotage attack on the Nord Stream gas pipelines was “probably premeditated and planned for” using an explosive device dropped into the sea weeks before it was detonated, according to a British defence source." thetimes.co.uk/article/russia…
"The most likely scenario, according to the UK source, was Russia secretly delivered an autonomous underwater vehicle with a payload to separate locations on the pipelines..[it] could have been launched off a small vessel such as a fishing boat months ago" thetimes.co.uk/article/russia…
'“They could sit there for months waiting to be told to explode,” the source said. They said the device could then be initiated, possibly by using a noise source of a certain frequency which could be dropped into the water at a time of Russia’s choosing.' thetimes.co.uk/article/russia…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Sep 28
NCSC head: “We haven’t seen ‘cyber Armageddon’. But that’s not a surprise to cyber professionals, who never expected it. What we have seen is a very significant conflict in cyberspace - probably the most sustained and intensive cyber campaign on record” ncsc.gov.uk/speech/lindy-c…
“we have not been surprised by the volume of Russian offensive cyber operations, nor have we been surprised by their targeting.
It fits our understanding of Russian doctrine – integrating cyber operations alongside real world offensive actions.” ncsc.gov.uk/speech/lindy-c…
“Russian cyber forces from their intel and military branches have been busy launching a huge number of attacks in support of immediate military objectives.
While these attacks may not have been apocalyptic in nature, this was not necessarily their purpose” ncsc.gov.uk/speech/lindy-c…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Sep 27
Couple of things I took away from Michael Kofman’s latest WOTR podcast. One is that the sham referendums might “retroactively entangle” Russian credibility over Crimea with Donbas, Kherson, Zaporizhia. Crimea was seen as distinct. That may get blurred. warontherocks.com/2022/09/russia…
Kofman on nuclear weapons: “most folks think of … tactical nuclear weapons. But most Russian nuclear weapons are non-strategic nuclear weapons, or … theatre nuclear weapons, and likely much more to be employed against fixed targets, such as critical infrastructure & mil basing”
On Russian attitudes to defeat: “Russian political elites, I think, would be much more willing to acknowledge defeat at the hands of the United States and NATO than they would ever be willing to acknowledge it at the hands of Ukrainians.” warontherocks.com/2022/09/russia…
Read 4 tweets

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