Thread by @MarkHertling

A 🧵on recent media stories about US "planning reaction to Putin's potential use of nuclear weapons."

While Americans may have concerns about how Ukrainian successes may cause Putin to do more dumb things (use nukes), the US does extensive planning on these (& other) issues. 1/

I just discussed this - in shorter terms - with @AlisynCamerota on @cnn.

Some background:

1. @DeptofDefense, the Joint Staff, and several combatant commands develop "contingency plans" based on strategic guidance for all threats. See chart ⬇️ 2/

COCOM Contingency Plans (at the bottom) are written based on @POTUS & DOD guidance. Those span a spectrum of actions the military must execute, including humanitarian efforts, combat, & deterrence of/reaction to enemy use of nuclear weapons.

There's even a planning manual.⬇️3/

These contingency plans (some call them "war plans," though not all address war) are developed by Combatant Commanders & their staffs throughout the world & are approved by the @SecDef. The CJCS's staff maintains these coordinated & approved plans in the Pentagon. 4/

These plans are reviewed often, are subject to "war gaming" & "red teaming" on a recurring basis.

There is always a "plan" (with multiple courses of actions, depending on the enemy) for deterring or countering RU (and other's) use of Nuclear Weapons on the shelf. 5/

In fact, back in March, the @nytimes published this story (which truthfully, made me smile for several reasons)....6/

nytimes.com/2022/03/23/us/…

The reporters stated: "The WH has quietly assembled a team of national security officials to sketch out scenarios of how the United States and its allies should respond [to] Putin unleashes....chemical, biological or nuclear weapons."

They also said... 7/

"The Tiger Team, as the group is known, is also examining responses if Mr. Putin reaches into NATO territory."

I smiled because these teams ALWAYS exist & sketch out scenarios (what the military calls "courses of action") & they are almost always called a "TIGER TEAM."
8/

Anyway...

During conflict, contingency plans -especially those involving deterrence or reaction to potential nuclear strikes- generate dozens of potential actions/reactions.

Having been involved in these, there is surely a contingency plan for anything RU may consider. 9/

The contingency plans are further and constantly refined by intelligence from multiple sources the US government receives...signal, satellites, human sources, movement of forces, etc.

The only wild card is...Putin's decision making. 10/

Bottom line: There are all sorts of contingencies of what *might* happen, and there are NO pundits anywhere who can predict - with certainty - what Putin will do.

But gathering intel, watching closely, and prudent planning mitigates & prepares the US/NATO for response. 11/