Faisal Islam Profile picture
Oct 3 7 tweets 3 min read
Ten minutes walk from the Chancellor’s speech, a Birmingham mortgage broker shows me banks returning to the mortgage market today at rates 1.5 percentage points higher than a week ago - 5-6% - and that’s with a 40% deposit #BBCNewsTen
One of the features which was interesting was that the biggest increase in rates was for those with larger deposits, ie the curve was being flattened - rates were all between 5 & 6%. Unexpected.
As we left a mortgage for student landlord that had been close to agreement at 3.75% came back today at 7.25% - nearly double…brokers said smaller providers weren’t returning yet as didn’t know how to price. bigger beasts are pricing to ration demand. No one wants to be cheapest
What is driving is this is swaps market in turn driven by rising gilt yields.

One big mortgage lender pointed out that 2 year swaps, upon which 2 year fixes are based were up 216 bps (2.2 %age points) and 5 years up 219 bps.

Halifax, returns with 2 yr fix of 5.84% tomorrow…
Just looking at some responses in thread “thats with a 40% deposit” refers to fact that it might have been expected that low LTV borrowing would not see such leaps in mortgage rates, it doesn’t mean such a deposit is compulsory. Lenders still in 80-90% market, tho closer to 6%
My colleague @PeacheyK has written up the still ongoing tightening of the mortgage market… so yes mortgages on the market have been in decline since inflation started to rise…. But more withdrawn in six days after mini budget than in previous 10 months…
… and average mortgage rates up about 2% in 10 months to mini budget, then up 1.25% in 10 days for 2 year fixes and 0.75 for 5 years

Mortgage rates still rising as big lenders revise deals HT @peacheyk bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

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More from @faisalislam

Oct 5
Very interesting @DavidDavisMP to Nick R that the PM models herself on Thatcher, she should actually look at what Thatcher did who was “strategically terribly bold and tactically incredibly careful” and would “never have tried” real cuts in benefits at a time like this
Meanwhile material change in long term bond markets - 30 year bond yield is up 30 basis points to well over 4% in past 24 hours, 4.15% a few moments ago. this is despite fact the Bank of England has offered to buy up these bonds…. That intervention took it down from 5% to 3.6% Image
Similar on 20 year bond… also being bought up by Bank of England, but 20bps is a noticeable spike. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 4
Treasury pointing to the limited extent of the actual use of the £65bn Bank of England bond purchase facility - though the existence of it enough to have an impact on yields…
On the other hand, 30 year yields have crept back above 4%, up 25bps, more or less since it appeared we wouldn’t definitely get a fast tracked OBR report… Image
Sterling now at highest level vs dollar since 15 September…
Still well down on year and since August, but more than full recovery from post mini budget rapid slump… Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 3
When I blogged that a U-turn was inevitable a week ago, the pushback was pretty intense…

bbc.com/news/business-…
Asked by Nick R about my story that OBR was sidelined from issuing a forecast alongside the mini budget, and whether he agrees it was a mistake given market reaction, part of a wider mistake of ignoring independent advice “I don’t recognise that at all… we acted at high speed”.
Chancellor says it is a complete distortion to say there is a “Kwarteng premium” of £960 a year on mortgages…

He says last weeks moves are down to the US Fed rises, dollar rises etc.

Read 11 tweets
Oct 2
Drawing the second half. Not bad at all.
😂
Get in. Great second half performance. 😂
Good to show a bit of pride. Score is same as 2-1 really, in ratio terms. 😂
#alwayslookonthebrightsideoflife
Read 6 tweets
Oct 2
Former Cabinet minister Michael Gove tells LauraK “a number of mistakes were made last Friday” in the mini budget
PM says “I understand how worried people are… these are global problems.. we had to act”…

“I stand by the package… but I do accept we should have laid the ground better”
This is the 5 year Govt borrowing chart from past month Laura just showed - first step up is the mini budget - note almost imperceptible impact of the energy announcement on June 8th
Read 8 tweets
Sep 30
NEW
Not a great surprise…

Standard & Poors announces UK sovereign rating now on negative outlook from AA rating due to “rising risks to UK fiscal position… sizeable budgetary loosening announced Sep 23rd risk a substantial widening of the U. K. 's fiscal imbalances”
S&P: mini budget measures: “we believe risk raising cost of government borrowing and complicating the task of bringing inflation, which measured 9. 9% in August 2022, under control.”

“we estimate general government deficit will rise to an average 5. 5% of GDP annually 2023-25”
S&P: “for now it is unclear whether the government plans to ultimately introduce fiscal consolidation measures to bring debt back on a downward path and we assume that the package will be funded by debt, as announced.”

Ie they don’t believe current fiscal promises
Read 4 tweets

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