Ukraine is not making any significant attacks from the Kupyansk bridgehead in any direction. Instead, they use drones and artillery to fire on Russian positions while recon and special forces exert pressure on Russian defenses.
Ukraine moved north and east from the Lyman bridgehead to liberate Pidlyman, Borova (1), Shyikivka, Izyumske, and Druzhelyubivka (3).
Russia withdrew without much of a fight after being defeated in Pidlyman. Russia doesn't have much presence north of Borova, and perhaps Ukraine has liberated those towns already. I expect confirmation of liberation along the Oskil River to Kupyansk in the next day or two.
Russia is withdrawing to Svatove in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine's next objective. Ukraine is moving northeast from the Lyman bridgehead toward Raihorodka (2), and there are conflicting reports about the town's state. Ukraine may have liberated it already.
Ukraine has likely released the entire right bank of the Zherebets River up to Raihorodok, including Makiivka.
There are conflicting reports that Ukraine has pushed east from Nevske and taken control of the P66 highway intersection between Ploshchanka (A) and Krasnorichenske (B). There are even rumors that Ukraine has liberated Krasnorichenske (5).
However, other reports claim only Ukrainian recon has made it this far and that the P66 highway remains in Russian control, albeit under constant threat of Ukrainian fire. Therefore, this entire area is labeled "contested" on the map.
Ukraine is firing artillery into Kreminna, although I do not believe they are assaulting the town. The primary Russian defensive position is in the northwest near the cemetery (red), and they appear to have an HQ in the blue highlighted area. Ukraine is heavily shelling both.
There are whispers of a Ukrainian advance toward Lysychansk near Siversk, but I have not seen any proof.
Instead, Russians are complaining about Ukraine's robust defenses near Spirne (6), where Ukrainian defenders are taking advantage of underground industrial areas. Russia is trying to push to Vyimka (7), but Russian sources say their advance has been slow and fraught with danger.
Near Bakhmut are stories about Ukraine performing a widescale counterattack and fleeing the areas around Bakhmut. I believe this is Russian propaganda. On the other hand, they may have some tiny amount of truth.
I have stated before that Ukraine performs daily counterattacks around Bakhmut. And I believe the Ukrainians rotated some units out of combat. But stories about a wholesale withdrawal or a large offensive are unsupported by available evidence.
Russia is attacking Bakhmutske (8), Bakhmut (9), Vesela Dolyna (10), Zaitseve (11), and Odradivka (12). They have been attacking these same areas for weeks now. I believe Russia has made some progress in Zaitseve, which suffers extremely heavy shelling.
Near Donetsk, Russia attacked Pervomaiske (13) and Nevelske (14). There are Russian claims of considerable advances in Pervomaiske, but I have been unable to verify the claims. I am not saying it is false, merely that I have had trouble contacting people in the area.
In the Kherson area, On October 2nd, Ukraine launched a massive armored attack down the T-403 highway that runs roughly parallel to the Dnipro river.
This attack occurred during stormy conditions that limited Russian air cover and the use of drones and coincided with an electronic warfare attack that jammed all Russian communications.
Ukraine charged down the highway, shattering the first line of defenses and rolling down to Havrylivka and Dudchany, over 20km from their starting positions (15).
Russia reportedly blew the bridge in Dudchany, hindering the Ukrainian advance. This statement is controversial, there are rumors that Ukraine broke through Dudchany, but I cannot find evidence. Perhaps more evidence will emerge in the coming days.
Ukraine also pushed southwest and took Lyubymivka (18), Bilyivka (19), Shevchenkivka, and Ukrainka (17). There are rumors that Ukraine also took Chervone (C) and Novovokresenske (D).
On October 2nd, Ukraine also moved toward Davydiv Brid and established positions in the wooded areas southwest about 1km from the town (21).
Ukraine will need to attack and secure four major towns in this area of Kherson to break the Russian position.
First, Dudchany (E). Ukraine likely controls at least half the town, but if Russia still holds the southern part of the town, they can still move supplies (although it will be under Ukrainian artillery fire).
Second, Mylove (F) is a significant artery that feeds toward the Russian position on the Inhulets river to the northwest. But neither of these towns is enough because there are still roads to get around them.
Finally, the two vital towns are Tryfonivka (G) and Borozenske (H). If Ukraine controls these two towns, then Davydiv Brid and everything north of it on the Inhulets is encircled. Ukraine would hold every road in and out.
Russia is continuously attacking Ukrainian cities. They launched suicide drone attacks on Odesa and missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Bakhmut.
On the night of October 3rd, Russia struck the power plant in Kharkiv, causing a massive fire and a power outage.
The strike on Kupyansk directly hit and destroyed the hospital and killed an anesthesiologist. The strike destroyed all four floors of the hospital.
What a weird twitter bug where it posted every tweet twice. I think I fixed it. First time I have had that happen.
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The news coming from the Velyka Novosilka area is very bad. There is no way to sugar coat it, the area has reached crisis and needs immediate intervention.
In short, Velyka Novosilka is the anchor of the southern defensive line. The line that runs from the Dnipro river to the east towards Donetsk. The Zaporizhzhia line. This west to east defensive line effectively ends in Velyka Novosilka. (note my map hasn't updated for the changes today)
Velyka Novosilka itself should have very good defenses, but the defenses are meant to stop attacks from the south, not the north and east.
Russia paying soldiers lump sums is not a method to get people to join the military, paying them is a way to make people not care about how many soldiers die.
Everyone knows soldiers are dying in huge numbers. But the money makes people think it is a gamble, not a tragedy. Nobody cares about a guy who signed up for quick money and died. They see it as quick easy money coming with huge risks and shrug. It is their own fault for joining.
It is simultaneously a lot of money and very little money. It is so much money that if you spent it wisely, you'd be set for life. But it is so little money most people will spend it all in a few weeks.
I just posted a map update, and many parts of the update have been written about by others already. But one interesting tidbit is the advance of Ukraine in Bilohorivka.
Here you see a Russian FPV Drone strike hitting a Ukrainian trench. You see that the trench crosses a road and has a hook shape. The trench is of relatively new construction, and cannot be seen on google map, nor other public high resolution images of the area. However, on google earth you can see the relative shape of the terrain (the Z axis is magnified 300% to exaggerate terrain features to make them easier to see. You can see that the trench runs along the crest of a hill. You can see the road it crosses, which is slightly lower than the ridge of the hill, on the reverse slope.
On sentinel, which is 10 meter resolution (a very low resolution image with few details), you can see the hook shape of this trench. This image is from October 24th, 2024, which is about 2 weeks ago.
The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.
Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.
To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.
Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.
In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.
There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.
Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.