Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 4, 2022 29 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Update for October 2-3 ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update…
The situation unfolds faster than I can verify information, so much of what I will say will be couched in this reality. #ukrdailyupdate

In short, the Russian line collapses in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Kherson Oblasts.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Ukraine is not making any significant attacks from the Kupyansk bridgehead in any direction. Instead, they use drones and artillery to fire on Russian positions while recon and special forces exert pressure on Russian defenses.
Ukraine moved north and east from the Lyman bridgehead to liberate Pidlyman, Borova (1), Shyikivka, Izyumske, and Druzhelyubivka (3).
Russia withdrew without much of a fight after being defeated in Pidlyman. Russia doesn't have much presence north of Borova, and perhaps Ukraine has liberated those towns already. I expect confirmation of liberation along the Oskil River to Kupyansk in the next day or two.
Russia is withdrawing to Svatove in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine's next objective. Ukraine is moving northeast from the Lyman bridgehead toward Raihorodka (2), and there are conflicting reports about the town's state. Ukraine may have liberated it already.
Ukraine has likely released the entire right bank of the Zherebets River up to Raihorodok, including Makiivka.
There are conflicting reports that Ukraine has pushed east from Nevske and taken control of the P66 highway intersection between Ploshchanka (A) and Krasnorichenske (B). There are even rumors that Ukraine has liberated Krasnorichenske (5).
However, other reports claim only Ukrainian recon has made it this far and that the P66 highway remains in Russian control, albeit under constant threat of Ukrainian fire. Therefore, this entire area is labeled "contested" on the map.
Ukraine is firing artillery into Kreminna, although I do not believe they are assaulting the town. The primary Russian defensive position is in the northwest near the cemetery (red), and they appear to have an HQ in the blue highlighted area. Ukraine is heavily shelling both.
There are whispers of a Ukrainian advance toward Lysychansk near Siversk, but I have not seen any proof.
Instead, Russians are complaining about Ukraine's robust defenses near Spirne (6), where Ukrainian defenders are taking advantage of underground industrial areas. Russia is trying to push to Vyimka (7), but Russian sources say their advance has been slow and fraught with danger.
Near Bakhmut are stories about Ukraine performing a widescale counterattack and fleeing the areas around Bakhmut. I believe this is Russian propaganda. On the other hand, they may have some tiny amount of truth.
I have stated before that Ukraine performs daily counterattacks around Bakhmut. And I believe the Ukrainians rotated some units out of combat. But stories about a wholesale withdrawal or a large offensive are unsupported by available evidence.
Russia is attacking Bakhmutske (8), Bakhmut (9), Vesela Dolyna (10), Zaitseve (11), and Odradivka (12). They have been attacking these same areas for weeks now. I believe Russia has made some progress in Zaitseve, which suffers extremely heavy shelling.
Near Donetsk, Russia attacked Pervomaiske (13) and Nevelske (14). There are Russian claims of considerable advances in Pervomaiske, but I have been unable to verify the claims. I am not saying it is false, merely that I have had trouble contacting people in the area.
In the Kherson area, On October 2nd, Ukraine launched a massive armored attack down the T-403 highway that runs roughly parallel to the Dnipro river.
This attack occurred during stormy conditions that limited Russian air cover and the use of drones and coincided with an electronic warfare attack that jammed all Russian communications.
Ukraine charged down the highway, shattering the first line of defenses and rolling down to Havrylivka and Dudchany, over 20km from their starting positions (15).
Russia reportedly blew the bridge in Dudchany, hindering the Ukrainian advance. This statement is controversial, there are rumors that Ukraine broke through Dudchany, but I cannot find evidence. Perhaps more evidence will emerge in the coming days.
Ukraine also pushed southwest and took Lyubymivka (18), Bilyivka (19), Shevchenkivka, and Ukrainka (17). There are rumors that Ukraine also took Chervone (C) and Novovokresenske (D).
On October 2nd, Ukraine also moved toward Davydiv Brid and established positions in the wooded areas southwest about 1km from the town (21).
Ukraine will need to attack and secure four major towns in this area of Kherson to break the Russian position.
First, Dudchany (E). Ukraine likely controls at least half the town, but if Russia still holds the southern part of the town, they can still move supplies (although it will be under Ukrainian artillery fire).
Second, Mylove (F) is a significant artery that feeds toward the Russian position on the Inhulets river to the northwest. But neither of these towns is enough because there are still roads to get around them.
Finally, the two vital towns are Tryfonivka (G) and Borozenske (H). If Ukraine controls these two towns, then Davydiv Brid and everything north of it on the Inhulets is encircled. Ukraine would hold every road in and out.
Russia is continuously attacking Ukrainian cities. They launched suicide drone attacks on Odesa and missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Bakhmut.
On the night of October 3rd, Russia struck the power plant in Kharkiv, causing a massive fire and a power outage.

The strike on Kupyansk directly hit and destroyed the hospital and killed an anesthesiologist. The strike destroyed all four floors of the hospital.
What a weird twitter bug where it posted every tweet twice. I think I fixed it. First time I have had that happen.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jul 15
It is insane to me that prop planes were never supplied to Ukraine. People have been so focused on the wrong assets. It has been clear since day 1 that prop planes would be one of the most significant military upgrades Ukraine could get, and if they were provided on Day 1 this war could be very different today. They could have been hunting and destroying recon drones this entire time, denying Russia the ability to plan their missile raids and correct their artillery fire and airstrikes. This would have crippled the Russian military. Instead, we put all of our money into defense, which could not be delivered in the time frames or in the quantities to actually defend ukraine. This failure to provide prop planes is completely infuriating to me.
And, even worse, the people who failed to understand how important the prop planes were back then are still in charge of making decisions today. That alone should worry everyone.
These people just don't understand how this war was going to be fought, is currently fought, or how it will be fought in the future. And yet, somehow, they make decisions on which gear should be invested in.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 12
It is honestly interesting seeing multiple prominent Russian milbloggers talking about the hopelessness of a Russian victory. I think they are starting to realize they goofed.
Sentiments along the lines of “no matter how many resources we push in, the front line barely moves”. “ukrainian and european production is growing faster than ours”. “next year ukraine will have more resources than us”
Tack on the comments about how 152mm artillery is a dead end technology due to lack of investment and development from the 80s onwards. Even their latest models, which Russia cannot even produce due to lack of industrial power, is dramatically inferior to even cheap 155mm pieces
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
Compare what Ukraine does to help and rebuild after liberating from Russian occupation to what Russia does once they enter and you can see which country is on the right side of history.

“We opened a Resilience Center in Balakliya.

This step is part of the All-Ukrainian Mental Health Program "Are You Okay?", an initiative of Olena Zelenska.

The project was implemented jointly with the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine and the Coordination Center for Mental Health of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, with the support of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF).

Resilience Centers provide psychosocial support, including group and individual counseling, parenting skills training, social support, crisis intervention, conflict resolution, and support for veterans.

Additionally, the centers offer day care services for children with disabilities, tailored to the needs of each community.

It is also a space for community members to socialize and organize joint events, initiatives and training sessions.

The centers were launched with the financial support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).”
Ukraine enters and begins to clear mines, restore electric power and water, repair heating systems, restore hospitals, rebuild schools.

Russia builds filtration camps, steals local land and businesses from the owners, turns schools into barracks, does book burnings, and begins logging the forests and stealing natural resources.
Read 4 tweets
May 31
This is the 243 day of the Russian offensive, in this time they have almost 2900 armored vehicles + artillery destroyed plus 1100 more abandoned. Combined is just under 4000. This is actually an undercount as well, because we don't have enough money to buy all the high res sat images.
In the same time period, Ukraine has lost fewer than 900.
We are absolutely double counting vehicles. Its not intentional, its just inevitable. No matter how much we work to avoid it, it happens. But the vehicles we miss almost certainly dwarf the number of double counts. Like, we bought a high res image of an area where we learned we counted the same vehicle 4 times, but there were also like 40+ vehicles nobody anywhere knew were lost. And even still several dozen of those have never been spotted on any photo or video we can find.
Read 4 tweets
May 26
I have an idea. Every time someone uses the total number of Russian mortar + 122 + 152 ammo production to 155mm production, they have to donate 1/4 of their salary to the Czech ammo purchase. Does that seem fair?
Compare 152 to 155, 122 to 105 and mortars to mortars or stfu and don't say anything at all.
Also, comparing the price of a mortar shell to a 155mm shell: are you stupid?
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Remember that time Romanov posted a video where he shot a howitzer, and then cut to a shell hitting a house? And how the shell that hit that house killed a civilian? Now, I cannot tell you Romanov fired that exact shell, but he wanted you to think he did.

Anywho, unrelatedly, I am sure:
when you are a "journalist" Image
Doing journalism Image
Read 5 tweets

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