Update for October 2-3 ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update…
The situation unfolds faster than I can verify information, so much of what I will say will be couched in this reality. #ukrdailyupdate

In short, the Russian line collapses in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Kherson Oblasts.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Ukraine is not making any significant attacks from the Kupyansk bridgehead in any direction. Instead, they use drones and artillery to fire on Russian positions while recon and special forces exert pressure on Russian defenses.
Ukraine moved north and east from the Lyman bridgehead to liberate Pidlyman, Borova (1), Shyikivka, Izyumske, and Druzhelyubivka (3).
Russia withdrew without much of a fight after being defeated in Pidlyman. Russia doesn't have much presence north of Borova, and perhaps Ukraine has liberated those towns already. I expect confirmation of liberation along the Oskil River to Kupyansk in the next day or two.
Russia is withdrawing to Svatove in Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine's next objective. Ukraine is moving northeast from the Lyman bridgehead toward Raihorodka (2), and there are conflicting reports about the town's state. Ukraine may have liberated it already.
Ukraine has likely released the entire right bank of the Zherebets River up to Raihorodok, including Makiivka.
There are conflicting reports that Ukraine has pushed east from Nevske and taken control of the P66 highway intersection between Ploshchanka (A) and Krasnorichenske (B). There are even rumors that Ukraine has liberated Krasnorichenske (5).
However, other reports claim only Ukrainian recon has made it this far and that the P66 highway remains in Russian control, albeit under constant threat of Ukrainian fire. Therefore, this entire area is labeled "contested" on the map.
Ukraine is firing artillery into Kreminna, although I do not believe they are assaulting the town. The primary Russian defensive position is in the northwest near the cemetery (red), and they appear to have an HQ in the blue highlighted area. Ukraine is heavily shelling both.
There are whispers of a Ukrainian advance toward Lysychansk near Siversk, but I have not seen any proof.
Instead, Russians are complaining about Ukraine's robust defenses near Spirne (6), where Ukrainian defenders are taking advantage of underground industrial areas. Russia is trying to push to Vyimka (7), but Russian sources say their advance has been slow and fraught with danger.
Near Bakhmut are stories about Ukraine performing a widescale counterattack and fleeing the areas around Bakhmut. I believe this is Russian propaganda. On the other hand, they may have some tiny amount of truth.
I have stated before that Ukraine performs daily counterattacks around Bakhmut. And I believe the Ukrainians rotated some units out of combat. But stories about a wholesale withdrawal or a large offensive are unsupported by available evidence.
Russia is attacking Bakhmutske (8), Bakhmut (9), Vesela Dolyna (10), Zaitseve (11), and Odradivka (12). They have been attacking these same areas for weeks now. I believe Russia has made some progress in Zaitseve, which suffers extremely heavy shelling.
Near Donetsk, Russia attacked Pervomaiske (13) and Nevelske (14). There are Russian claims of considerable advances in Pervomaiske, but I have been unable to verify the claims. I am not saying it is false, merely that I have had trouble contacting people in the area.
In the Kherson area, On October 2nd, Ukraine launched a massive armored attack down the T-403 highway that runs roughly parallel to the Dnipro river.
This attack occurred during stormy conditions that limited Russian air cover and the use of drones and coincided with an electronic warfare attack that jammed all Russian communications.
Ukraine charged down the highway, shattering the first line of defenses and rolling down to Havrylivka and Dudchany, over 20km from their starting positions (15).
Russia reportedly blew the bridge in Dudchany, hindering the Ukrainian advance. This statement is controversial, there are rumors that Ukraine broke through Dudchany, but I cannot find evidence. Perhaps more evidence will emerge in the coming days.
Ukraine also pushed southwest and took Lyubymivka (18), Bilyivka (19), Shevchenkivka, and Ukrainka (17). There are rumors that Ukraine also took Chervone (C) and Novovokresenske (D).
On October 2nd, Ukraine also moved toward Davydiv Brid and established positions in the wooded areas southwest about 1km from the town (21).
Ukraine will need to attack and secure four major towns in this area of Kherson to break the Russian position.
First, Dudchany (E). Ukraine likely controls at least half the town, but if Russia still holds the southern part of the town, they can still move supplies (although it will be under Ukrainian artillery fire).
Second, Mylove (F) is a significant artery that feeds toward the Russian position on the Inhulets river to the northwest. But neither of these towns is enough because there are still roads to get around them.
Finally, the two vital towns are Tryfonivka (G) and Borozenske (H). If Ukraine controls these two towns, then Davydiv Brid and everything north of it on the Inhulets is encircled. Ukraine would hold every road in and out.
Russia is continuously attacking Ukrainian cities. They launched suicide drone attacks on Odesa and missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Bakhmut.
On the night of October 3rd, Russia struck the power plant in Kharkiv, causing a massive fire and a power outage.

The strike on Kupyansk directly hit and destroyed the hospital and killed an anesthesiologist. The strike destroyed all four floors of the hospital.
What a weird twitter bug where it posted every tweet twice. I think I fixed it. First time I have had that happen.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Oct 6
In the past 48 hours, Ukraine has prepared for a new offensive in Luhansk oblast and mounted a successful offensive in Kherson. Meanwhile, Russia launched terrorist attacks on several Ukrainian cities.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com Image
In Kharkiv, Russia launched small attacks on Strilecha (1) and Zelene (2). These attacks do little more than force Ukraine to keep troops near the border to protect the border towns. In addition, Russia launched Geran-2 suicide drones into Kharkiv tonight. The damage is unknown. Image
Read 22 tweets
Oct 5
Why. ImageImageImageImage
Live look at me trying to find which ivanivka this is
Maybe it is this one. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 5
Apparently Ukraine arrested that guy who molested children and killed that cop. Judging by the amount of blood in the photo I dunno how well he's feeling at the moment.
The other picture he's being held down by a dog, so.
Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 4
If you told me this guy is the commander of the Russian military, I would believe you. This is absolutely Russia’s strategy. If you see Ukraine ready to attack you must immediately respond by not preparing at all. Image
Listen? To the needs of soldiers and generals? Crazy talk. You cant buy your 458th yacht by listening to people and providing for their needs. Image
wargonzo writes that basic medical supples and body armor have rocketed up in price in russia. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Oct 3
After reading through every source I can find, I think this is what happened yesterday. Sorry for the crude drawing, I made it in snip.
Ukraine moved south from Osokorivka (1).
they split off and liberate Zolota Balka (2) and Kreshchenivka (3).
Continue south to meet resistance (4)
split off to liberate Mykhailivka (5) and Shevchenivka (6).
They are stopped somewhere before or inside the red box.

Simultaneously to this, Ukraine liberatedd Lyubymivka (7) and attacked and/or liberated Bilyaivka (8).
I think the news of Ukraine reading Dudchany is a misinterpretation of the news being reported. I have gone through every single message I could find and I cannot find one singular mention of Havrylivka. I don't think Ukraine can reach Dudchany without Havrylivka.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 1
Update for September 29-30 ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update…
An update for September 29th-30th #ukrdailyupdate

This is a subset of the information provided in the blog above.

If you would like to look at the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
A new American weapon is spotted in Ukraine. The M30A1 is a warhead launched by the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) on vehicles like HIMARS.
Read 28 tweets

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