A Russian channel gives 3 reasons why Russian forces are retreating in Kherson: 1) A lack of rotation/exhaustion (he mentions the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade) 2) Because of a lack of infantry, Russian forces stay in strongpoints in towns. Ukrainian forces push between them.
He says Ukraine conducted reconnaissance and found the weak spots in the lines and that Russia didn't have the mobile reserves to plug the holes. He also says that the weather prevented air support and neither side used artillery particularly heavily.
3) He says Ukrainian units painted "V" and "Z" markers on their vehicles which confused Russian forces. He suggests this means Ukraine has a C2/tracking system in all of their vehicles. t.me/RSaponkov/3697
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A couple of days after Ramzan Kadyrov criticized Colonel General Lapin for being far from the front lines during the fighting in Lyman, Russian channels are sharing photos of him leading troops. Clearly a PR battle going on between Russian commanders. t.me/ok_spn/21287
Another photo of Lapin commanding his forces. Looks like he has a R-149AKSh-1 command-staff vehicle in addition to his modified Tigr-M vehicles. He's also using an Azart radio. Not sure what the black radio is. 2/
It was obvious before that Russian forces were wearing or flying Soviet flags and patches. The Russian MoD blurred them out of previous videos with Lapin, but it is very clear this practice is accepted by Russia's most senior military leaders.
Of course, there was a change in rhetoric and the decision to announce a mobilization was also a strong signal that the war isn't going well, which also could have contributed to the jump.
Given how poorly the initial phase of mobilization was conducted and the uncertainty about who would get called up, that sense of anxiety may drop somewhat. Of course, it won't if mobilized units get thrown into the war too quickly and take heavy casualties.
Russian pages are sounding the alarm about Kherson. One says Russian forces have fallen back to Dudchany, another says the situation could soon become critical, another says Ru forces need to prepare for urban warfare and that Ukraine is hitting their lines where they are weak.
I recommend @DefMon3's thread about what is and isn't known. He's right to point out Ru defenses are more fortified in Kherson and they have more elite units, but when this many Russian channels are sounding the alarm, it usually means they're in trouble.
Footage reportedly of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter getting shot down in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. t.me/rybar/39621
Apparent confirmation from the Fighter Bomber Telegram channel. 2/ t.me/fighter_bomber…
Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces claim they also shot down a Ka-52 helicopter in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Looks like a separate shoot down. 3/ instagram.com/p/CjLmMMgtCo_/…
In a post today, Ramzan Kadyrov criticized CGS Gerasimov and Central Military District Commander Lapin, who he blamed for the loss of Lyman. He accused Lapin of sending mobilized LNR forces to fight without enough ammunition and other support. t.me/RKadyrov_95/29…
He said he warned Gerasimov about the issues but was assured Lapin had the situation under control and Russian forces wouldn't need to retreat. He suggests there is a deeper problem of senior officers being promoted due to nepotism instead of their leadership qualities. 2/
He confirms Ukrainian intelligence's claim that Lapin was put in charge of the Western Military District/West grouping troops, and says that Lapin has been in Luhansk instead of commanding closer to Lyman while his staff moved to Starobilsk. 3/