The unusual, unpredictable and #ExtremeWeather of #HurricaneIAN is still continuing in the North East of the US. The remnant low has strengthened and remains parked off the Maryland coast.
This storm has now spent nearly a week over the US.
Last night I posted a fairly discursive thread looking at the Tropical Atlantic, and some threats in the long range GFS forecast - including the threat posted by the remnants of #HurricaneIan
Here we are looking in particular at the stationary low pressure center off the coast of Maryland (Top Left) in the animation above. The impacts are becoming more significant now as the remnants of #IAN - back over the Atlantic are strengthening again.
Last 12 hours in DC.
And last 12 hours in the broader Tri-State Area - NYC, New Jersey, Long Island, Conneticut and Eastern Pennsylvania.
Heres a 90 hour (4 day) forecast for the North East Seaboard. The storm can be seen bottom right, and it looks like it is going to get worse before it is swept away to the east.
The associated rain forecast shows 48 hours rain in New York.
Its not forecast to be particularly heavy fortunately. But it is astonishing that #HurricaneIAN is continuing to be as unpredictable as it is.
Going back to the original animation in this thread, a feature worth noticing is the atmospherica river (due south of Long Island coming up over the Atlantic) which is continuing to feed the storm with warm tropical energised water.
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The remnants of Hurricane Ian are showing little sign of abandoning the Tri State area. This is from this morning CEST before sunrise.
And here we see #HurricaneIAN this evening. In the morning Ian had developed a distinct visible rotation at its center. And this evening this started to move south downthe coast rather than East as it has been forcasted to do for some time.
NOAA has published a remarkable tool to allow you to look at #HurricaneIAN damage in Florida and beyond.
This image shows the heart of the coverage of the satellite data - From Naples up to Venice. Imagery reveals how concentrated extreme damage is. oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/sep22/ngs…
In the long range PWAT animation in the quoted thread above you can see one possible outcome, a massive cyclone embedded in a gyre which nearly covers the entire Gulf of Mexico.
But that is still a long way off and can probably be considered a worst case scenario.
Hurricane's are not predictable at such long ranges. But large scale dynamics about atmospheric water dynamics are fairly reliable at range.
At this point the NHC remains unconvinced by Invest91L itself. And gave it just a 20% probability of formation only this morning.