Thread by @althecat

#ClimateChangeNow #ExtremeWeatherUpdate THREAD

#Invest91L located East of the Seaward Islands has woken up at day break with explosive convection - and is starting to look organised.

This storm is forecast to move towards the Gulf of Mexico.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1577030069054148609

In the long range PWAT animation in the quoted thread above you can see one possible outcome, a massive cyclone embedded in a gyre which nearly covers the entire Gulf of Mexico.

But that is still a long way off and can probably be considered a worst case scenario.

Hurricane's are not predictable at such long ranges. But large scale dynamics about atmospheric water dynamics are fairly reliable at range.

At this point the NHC remains unconvinced by Invest91L itself. And gave it just a 20% probability of formation only this morning.

However in the long range model runs, Invest91L is not the only candidate for development in the very wet atmospheric buildup which is expected in the Carribean over the next 10 days.

Here's a selection of spaghetti model runs - many of which take any storm into the Pacific.

The red one here from the GEFS is far and away the most alarming. For the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and the United States.

This is the latest GFS model run 04/06 and shows the next 16 days. A colossal buildup of atmospheric water is forecast in this run, and as I said above, the long range fluid dynamics part of these model forecasts is often right.

This sequence of images shows the forecast Atmospheric Water situation at:
150 hours
198 hours
252 hours
300 hours

And what you can see here is a storm roughly 2000kms in diameter which crosses the Central American isthmus drawing water from the Pacific into its core.

#HurricaneIAN was relatively small by comparison.

To conclude here are some diagnostics animations of #Invest91L which is where this story begins.

The convection on the Western side is partcularly spectacular this morning. The white areas you see here are very high altitude clouds.

And a third view of #Invest91L this one also shows it is moving into a very low area of shear with no dry air. This storm could spin up rapidly.

Finally we have this NOAA Spaghetti Map, which contains some other very negative possibilities about where #Invest91L may head.

https://twitter.com/pet_surft/status/1576722443133022208?s=20&t=BLfaWcIK_Zg4NSRDupAsIg

[HT @pet_surft]

/ends

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