Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Oct 4 17 tweets 6 min read
As things are moving fast on the Kherson front I drew up a few maps to explain the situation.

A short thread🧵:

In Kherson the russians hold a sizeable bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro river (shaded red), which could only be supplied by two bridges, one
1/n Image
just a bit North of Kherson and the other over the dam at Nova Kakhovka (purple pentagons).
Since the arrival of M142 HIMARS both crossing have been pounded heavily by Ukrainian forces.
Since August the Antonovsky bridge near Kherson is impassable for vehicles (photo), while
2/n Image
the dam at Nova Kakhovka is still passable for trucks, but not heavy vehicles (photo).

Over the last month Ukraine has been wearing the russian forces in Kherson down: through artillery fire, constant probing attacks, drone attacks, and by destroying their ammo and supplies.
3/n Image
russia brought in pontoons to supply its forces in the South near Kherson (photo), but thanks to HIMARS Ukraine has been hitting and sinking these pontoons.

Now Ukraine went on the offensive in the North and quickly overran the starving, demoralized russian forces there.
4/n Image
This is the same map as in tweet 1, but seeing this map makes it easier to understand Ukraine's initial attacks (blue arrows):
One attack pierced the russian line near the Dnipro, using the 5 km wide river to cover its eastern flank. At the same time Ukrainian troops attacked
5/n Image
from their Inhulets bridgehead - thus fixing the russians forces there in place.
Meeting little resistance Ukrainian forces pushed South to Dudchany. This meant that the russian troops still holding the front in the North are now at risk of being encircled. The latest news
6/n
indicate that these russians are already fleeing from there (red arrows).
Kherson is steppe = a flat landscape with some thin treelines as only cover. There are no natural barriers, which makes it impossible for the russians to set up an improvised defensive line.
7/n Image
The russians can't stop retreating until the next natural barrier: either the Dnipro river or the Inhulets river

Retreating over the Dnipro Nova Kakhovka would make more sense for the russians, as

(Photo of the landscape in northern Kherson - ideal armored warfare country)
8/n Image
here their trucks and light vehicles can still cross and once on the left bank the russians could set up a defensive line to secure the rear of their forces fighting in Zaporizhzhia.

The other option is to retreat South to the Inhulets river (blue line).
9/n Image
Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does... so the russians will do it.

Let's look again at the map with the second phase of the operation in Kherson: the russians retreat either over the Nova Kakhovka dam or over the Inhulets river:
10/n Image
if they retreat over the dam they will have to leave all their heavy vehicles behind, if they retreat over the Inhulets they will have to abandon most of their vehicles for lack of fuel.
And if the russians retreat over the Inhulets, the Ukrainians can cross the Dnipro and
11/n
establish a bridgehead on the left bank, from which they can attack towards Crimea and Melitopol. At Kakhovka they can also cut the water to Crimea.

In short the russians only have bad options (putin the "strategic genius" at it again).

Some russians will flee over the
12/n
Nova Kakhovka dam, but most will retreat over the Inhulets... and as said that's the most moronic option, because then the russians there will be boxed in by Ukrainian troops from three sides, with M777 howitzers able to hit almost every spot, and
13/n Image
AHS Krab, PzH 2000, Zuzana 2 and CAESAR able to hit every spot. And the only supply line will be pontoons, whose landing spots on both sides of the Dnipro are in Ukrainian artillery range.
Retreating over the Inhulets is retreating into a death trap. Once Ukrainian M777 can
14/n
hit the pontoons no ammo, no fuel, no food - nothing will reach the 15,000 russians stuck there. It's starve to death or freeze to death or surrender for them.

And they can't flee across the Antonovsky bridge as Ukrainian spotters will see them & artillery will shred them.
15/n
And in fall/winter they can't swim across the 1 km wide Dnipro river with its freezing water, as that would mean death by hypothermia.

putin just annexed Kherson, so he refuses to give it up... which means he has doomed all the russian troops there to death.
16/n
This is a textbook example how a smart, capable, flexible, motivated army can use terrain, enemy incompetence, and operational art to beat a cretinously led army.

We're gonna see more of this, because putin is a moron and General Zaluzhnyi is a genius.

17/end Image

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More from @noclador

Dec 1
This German "peace in Europe only with Russia" is garbage nowadays.

It was formulated in last century's 1970s... and made sense back then, because the russian empire (disguised as Warsaw Pact) consisted of 148 million russians and 252 million enslaved people, which gave
1/4
the Soviets 400m people vs. 324m in European NATO nations. The Soviets had 1.24 times more people to draw armies from than the West.

Today European NATO nations (incl. Finland, Sweden) are 597 million vs. 144 million russians. That's a 4.2 to 1 superiority for the West!
2/4
And that is BEFORE we even add in the US, Canada, Ukraine, etc. Then it is 1 billion people vs. russia's 144 million. A 7:1 advantage for us in the West.

All those people repeating the bullshit about "peace only with Russia" are stuck in the 1970s. Today no one needs russia
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Nov 25
Reasons the winter months will kill 100,000 russian soldiers:

1) lack of winter clothing for russian troops = death by hypothermia
2) garbage russian logistics = lack of warm food, tea, heating materiel, sleeping bags = death by hypothermia
3) no shelters and dugouts for
1/4
russian troops to hide from the elements = death by hypothermia
4) ground is frozen = you can't dig shelters anymore = russian troops have to sleep on the ground = death by hypothermia
5) russian troops can't make any fire. Fire = smoke, which attracts drones and artillery
2/4
6) frozen ground = artillery becomes more effective. In summer projectiles bury into the ground before detonating... now the ground is frozen solid = more shrapnel
7) frozen ground = can't dig a foxhole = death by artillery

putin knows it and is desperate to pause the war
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Nov 24
*Spoilers*

The quality of the writing in #Andor is beyond amazing.
It's by far the best writing Star Wars has ever seen.

And these words are spoken by actresses and actors that are leagues above anything else on @DisneyPlus

Nemik's manifest - such a concise and clear
1/5
description of tyranny and oppression. Replace "Empire" with putin, mullahs, Mussolini, or Xi and it is all true for all the fascist regimes of the world and in history.

And Nemik's observation on how revolution start and grow:
2/5
Maarva's last words for Andor, the son she loved above all else:
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Nov 23
After I explained how the russian soldiers in #Makiivka died during a firefight initiated by one of them feigning surrender and opening fire, @nytimes writer @malachybrowne tried to dissect my analysis.
As it turns out, one of his observations makes it even more obvious
1/n
the Ukrainian troops had no other choice and did nothing wrong; and that the russian soldiers on the ground had no chance once their comrade initiated a firefight.

Here is Browne's tweet:

2/n
I now believe Browne is correct and there were just four Ukrainians and not one (!) of them had a clear line of sight to the door where the russians emerged.

Left image: lines of sight with five Ukrainians
Right image: lines of sight with four Ukrainians
3/n ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Nov 21
Were the russians in Makiivka executed?

No. And I will explain all the facts in this thread 🧵:

Yesterday the @nytimes published an article about the dead russians in Makiivka... and didn't bother to ask a single military expert, officer, weapons expert, or Ukrainian.
1/n
Instead they went to an Assistant Adjunct Professor for Epidemiology at UC Berkeley, who is quoted: “It looks like most of them were shot in the head,” Dr. Rohini Haar, medical adviser at Physicians for Human Rights, said in an interview.

Wrong. And a military expert would
2/n
have told the NY Times that this is nonsense.

First: here are the videos of the before and after of the incident. Video 2 in the linked tweet is before and Video 3 is after.

3/n
Read 19 tweets
Nov 18
All the people calling what happened in Makiivka a "war crime" know fuck shit about surrender procedures.

Surrenders of enemy forces larger than one's own force are TRAINED and follow procedures. The Ukrainian troops followed the procedure and because of that they are alive.
1/7
If the enemy wants to surrender but outnumbers you, then you tell the enemy soldiers to move unarmed and with their hands up to a spot in front of one or two of your machine guns.

Make all the enemy troops lay down. Now if one of them changes his mind - he is in the machine
2/7
gunner's sight and can be neutralized easily. And the machine gunner's task is TO FIRE immediately if an enemy soldiers moves without being asked to do so.
Once all the enemy troops are on the ground, you call them one by one over to a spot BEHIND the machine gun. You never
3/7
Read 7 tweets

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