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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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Oct 4 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
#ExtremeWeather Update

The NHC has updated its view on #Invest91L and now gives it a 60% chance of Tropical Storm formation in 2 days.

I'm wondering if it may already be a tropical storm as it has grown significantly in size in recent hours. ImageImage
The official NHC call is now 40% formation chance for #Invest91L in 48 hours 60% in 5 days. But I suspect that's still a significant over-estimation. ImageImageImageImage
This was early this morning before sunrise - long animation loop.
And this is from around 4am EDT. Still pretty ragged. At that stage NHC was giving it a 20% formation chance in 2 days.
And this is what it looks like now in a diagnostic. Those green sprites indicate super high altitude cloud formations.
And here's a visial picture of what happened to #Invest91L at sunrise (near live satellite images from @zoom_earth). It looks like it is exploding.
@zoom_earth Its already 554kms across. Image

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 5
#HurricaneIAN is finally leaving the United States.
Meanwhile "diturbance" #Invest91L - which may soon become #HurricaneJulia - has taken on the appearance of a comet. Image
#Invest91L at sunset 5th October 2022
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 5
#HurricaneIAN #ExtremeWeather Update THREAD

The remnants of Hurricane Ian are showing little sign of abandoning the Tri State area. This is from this morning CEST before sunrise.
And here we see #HurricaneIAN this evening. In the morning Ian had developed a distinct visible rotation at its center. And this evening this started to move south downthe coast rather than East as it has been forcasted to do for some time.
This is this morning's 24 hour forecast.
Read 11 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 5
NOAA has published a remarkable tool to allow you to look at #HurricaneIAN damage in Florida and beyond.

This image shows the heart of the coverage of the satellite data - From Naples up to Venice. Imagery reveals how concentrated extreme damage is.
oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/sep22/ngs… Image
Fort Meyers Ground Zero ImageImageImageImage
More... ImageImageImageImage
Read 16 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 4
#ExtremeWeather

I think we can now describe #HurricaneIAN's remnant storm centered roughly over NYC & 1000kms in diameter, as a "Gyre".

Gyre= "a broad area of slowly spinning air that rotates counterclockwise in the Nth Hemisphere."

Typically Gyres are not over land though. Image
Also as you can see here it is widening. Abd its eye is nearly complete.

Which raises the question: Is anarchy about to be loosed upon the world?
Image
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 4
#ClimateChangeNow #ExtremeWeatherUpdate THREAD

#Invest91L located East of the Seaward Islands has woken up at day break with explosive convection - and is starting to look organised.

This storm is forecast to move towards the Gulf of Mexico.
In the long range PWAT animation in the quoted thread above you can see one possible outcome, a massive cyclone embedded in a gyre which nearly covers the entire Gulf of Mexico.

But that is still a long way off and can probably be considered a worst case scenario.
Hurricane's are not predictable at such long ranges. But large scale dynamics about atmospheric water dynamics are fairly reliable at range.

At this point the NHC remains unconvinced by Invest91L itself. And gave it just a 20% probability of formation only this morning. ImageImage
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 4
#ClimateChangeNow Update THREAD.

The unusual, unpredictable and #ExtremeWeather of #HurricaneIAN is still continuing in the North East of the US. The remnant low has strengthened and remains parked off the Maryland coast.

This storm has now spent nearly a week over the US.
Last night I posted a fairly discursive thread looking at the Tropical Atlantic, and some threats in the long range GFS forecast - including the threat posted by the remnants of #HurricaneIan
Here we are looking in particular at the stationary low pressure center off the coast of Maryland (Top Left) in the animation above. The impacts are becoming more significant now as the remnants of #IAN - back over the Atlantic are strengthening again.

Last 12 hours in DC.
Read 9 tweets

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