Glen Peters Profile picture
Oct 5 6 tweets 2 min read
For those outside of the UK, you can watch BBC Panorama: "The Green Energy Scandal Exposed" here, to see where Drax gets its bioenergy from.

Basically, industrial bioenergy is a dirty business.

Though, the "bio is worse than coal" is misleading.



1/
Yes, burning wood emits more CO₂ than burning coal. But, the entire point of burning wood is that it grows back. Unlike coal!

The question is whether the wood is sourced sustainably. Put the focus there.

2/
You can also get into semantic arguments: Did the wood grow first or was it harvested first? If you have a sustainable forestry operation, this is not really a question, as you consider the landscape under management.

3/
As BBC Panorama showed, it seems at least some of the Drax feedstock is sourced in an unsustainable way. Now, think if we had thousands of these biomass plants around the world. It ain't going to work! The scale is too big.

(scenarios assessed in IPCC disagree though)

4/
Some forms of bioenergy maybe ok. Take each solution on its merits.

You don't need to say wood is worse than coal to make a case Drax is harvesting primary forest or doing things unsustainably.

5/
For those that missed it, here is how Norway uses its bioenergy. Mainly in heating homes and some in industry, but transport fuels are imported.


(if this is good or bad is not really related to coal vs bioenergy)

6/6

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More from @Peters_Glen

Oct 4
IPCC AR5 scientists were sometimes called "mapmakers" (the analogy was used in AR6 too) science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

So I found this section "the map is not the territory" in "Escape from model-land" by @H4wkm0th @lynyrdsmyth rather entertaining...
economics-ejournal.org/economics/jour…

1/
"Something seen on the map may not correspond to what is in the territory; worse, something not seen on the map may be encountered when we explore the territory."

2/
"Can we escape model-land by targeting exclusively the less comfortable, but better-informed and much more relevant real-world entities in decision-making?"

3/
Read 8 tweets
Sep 29
How good are reported emission estimates? 🧵

Here is a comparison of the official UNFCCC & EDGAR data, which is used in many science applications.

In the Nordics, EDGAR seems to get CH₄ emissions completely wrong because it uses global assumptions.

norden.diva-portal.org/smash/record.j…

1/
Norway’s fugitive emissions of CH₄ in the oil and gas sector are officially reported as 17.9 kt in 2019, while EDGAR estimates this as 639 kt.

More than an order of a magnitude different, with a divergence in growth

2/
Sweden officially reports 29.8 kt CH₄ in the waste sector in 2019, while EDGAR estimates this at 279.8 kt CH₄.

Another order of magnitude difference, plus some meaningful differences in CO₂ & a weird jump in N₂O!

3/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 28
US fossil CO₂ emissions peaked around 2007, & have since declined ~20% whilst GDP has grown >20%.

Why is this?

1/
First, is the US using more energy? No.

Most economies have a decline in energy per unit GDP (E/GDP) over time, due to structural change (e.g., more services), efficiency improvements, etc. In fact, energy use has dropped slightly in the US!

This helps lower CO₂ emissions.

2/
In addition, & this is the biggest change in the US, energy use now has much lower CO₂ emissions (CO₂ per energy started to decline in 2007).

This is the shift from coal to gas & expansion of renewables.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Sep 26
People often say that fossil CO₂ emissions are on track to be roughly constant in the decades ahead & extrapolate this to 2100. People rightly point out this is uncertain.

What happens to temperature if:
* Emissions are constant
* Emissions grow 50%
* Emissions decline 50%

1/
CO₂-induced warming is best described by cumulative CO₂ emissions (TCRE).

What happens to CO₂-induced warming in 2100 if:
* Emissions are constant: 2.8°C
* Emissions grow 50%: 2.5°C
* Emissions decline 50%: 2.1°C
(and rising in all cases)

2/
Non-CO₂ warming is not included here, so add another ~0.3°C in 2020 & ~0.5°C in 2100. There are of course climate uncertainties.

To get higher warming levels, there really needs to be much higher emissions, or some nasty climate feedbacks.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Sep 19
🧵
There was a bit of discussion following a @Noahpinion post on 'outsourcing' US emission to China
noahpinion.substack.com/p/no-the-us-di…

I decided to update a few of our figures to show longer term trends, based on this paper agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…

1/
We wrote a blog post with a summary "We tend to remember the way things were, not the way things are"

The US had a burst of imports in the 2000s, linked to China's export driven growth spurt, but things have changed since then!

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how…

2/
China had a large increase in exported emissions in the 2000s, but this all changed since the Global Financial Crisis.

According to our estimates, exported emissions have actually gone down! This will relate to the export mix and larger macroeconomic changes in China.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Sep 12
Fossil CO₂ emissions per person by income group.

The high income group has a long way to come down, as does the upper-middle (largely, China)...

An interesting divergence between lower income & lower-middle income since ~1990.

1/
Most of the global population is in the middle income groups, and this has implications for aggregated emissions...

2/
...that means that total fossil CO₂ emissions are, on aggregate, higher in the upper-middle income group.

The middle income groups have the largest growth in fossil CO₂ emissions, despite the 'slowdown' in the upper-middle income group (largely China).

3/
Read 5 tweets

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