Vasan MSV Profile picture
Oct 5, 2022 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
India to be considered an OECD Country, healthy Governance is the key.
The best way to gauge we are today is by taking a comparative data. World Bank Publishes a set of 6 Indicators to gauge the Governance efficacy. (Details in the image)
(1/10)#QuestionToModi ImageImage
This is a structured Survey based on People's perceptions. This is the second best possible data available for comparison. The first best choice for some would be WhatsApp forwards for those who call themselves Nationalists.
(2/10) Image
These comparisons are done against the countries in the lower end of the OECD spectrum. (i.e. Eastern Europe, South America etc. some Asian co-aspirants like China, Taiwan are also added.
The idea to see how far the New & Old India (before 2014) fared in each area
(3/10)
1. Voice & Accountability:
First and foremost measure for good governance.
Old India - India was doing well from 2004-2016 and was holding its improvement, though slow.
After 2016, India has lost all the gains made, we all know the reasons.
Winner : Old India.
(4/10) ImageImage
2. Political Stability
This relates to peace as well.
There were some consistent improvements 2009-2017. After that it is a see-saw with unstable trend. However, all the comparison countries are also having some trouble here.
Winner: Old India (5/10) ImageImage
3. Government Effectiveness
It has been one of the biggest lacuna for India for a while. Similar trend.
A very consistent improvement between 2004-07 & 2014-17. Unstable after that.
Considering comparative performance.
Winner : Draw (6/10) ImageImage
4. Regulatory Quality
There is a sustained improvement after 2014. Though you may cite many undemocratic acts or U-turns like electoral bonds, farm laws, Data Privacy Act, etc., we need to be consistent and listen to people's voice.
Winner : New India
(7/10) ImageImage
5. Rule of Law.
After a downfall between 2006. There was a consistent improvement until 2018. After that there is a rapid downfall.
Capturing the Constitutional Bodies, Courts, Media and Crony capitalism seems to be at play.
Winner : Old India.
(8/10) ImageImage
6. Control of Corruption.
Biggest drum beat of the BJP. Seems people don't agree with them.
After a rapid downfall after 2006, there was stability and improvement between 2011-2018. Like in all other measures a rapid downfall after that.
Winner : Old India
(9/10) ImageImage
In summary;
In terms of Governance;
Old India - 4/6
New India - 1/6
Draw/NOTA - 1/6
Looks like that people's disillusionment with all the Modi rhetoric & window dressing is withering off. Hindutva cannot save BJP anymore. As usual, inviting @Isriramseshadri for comments.
(10/10)

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More from @VasanMSV

Sep 5
The #IC814TheKandaharHijack was the Trojan Horse.
It led to the release of the Terrorist Masood Azhar and the formation of JeM, which has played a major part in every major Terrorist attack on the Indian Soil. Pulwama is the most recent and most intriguing. Ultimately, we will see that all these are not isolated incidents.

We all know about Ajit Doval's involvement. You'd be surprised to know the roles played by SBS Tomar, his brother-in-law and a senior leader in Modi Government NK Singh, and also Mr. Hemant Karkare who had tapped the tele conversations of the perpetrators and was killed in another attack, 26/11.

Let us understand the unanswered questions and some perplexing lapses, the main actors, and how the BJP has been awarding them despite their lapses.
Then we can connect the dots to see how terror attacks are being executed to provide electoral benefits to the BJ Party. (1/7)Image
IC 814 Hijacking and Intelligence Lapses: The hijacking of Indian Airlines Flight IC 814 in December 1999 was a significant event. The plane was en route from Kathmandu to Delhi when it was hijacked by terrorists and taken to Kandahar, Afghanistan.
The hijackers demanded the release of several militants, including Masood Azhar, who later went on to form Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).
You rightly point out that there were warnings from various intelligence agencies, including the US, about potential terrorist activities. Despite these warnings, the situation unfolded tragically.
The role of intelligence officers and their lapses during this incident remains a matter of scrutiny. (2/7)Image
These are the unanswered questions that we need to ask even today.

1. Despite various warnings, including the ones from the US Intelligence and our intelligence officer U.V. Singh in Nepal, the BJP Government was very callous towards those warnings. IC 814 is one of the major lapses in the Intelligence and that has never been investigated properly and as usual, hidden by BJP under its favorite magic carpet, rhetorical Nationalism!

The R&AW Official SBS Tomar, who had ignored the warnings of Mr. U.V. Singh was also on IC814 (Seat #16 C as per the manifesto) despite warnings of such an attack? Is it not too much of a coincidence?? If the attack was done on the behest of the Pakistani Intelligence, would they so lapse in not knowing the “declared” Intelligence Operative Counterpart?
It happens so, that Pakistan knew very well that Tomar was on-board the Flight. On 27 December itself, while 1C 814 was stranded in Kandahar and negotiations were underway for the release of hostages, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman, Tariq Altaf,  announced before the international Press in Islamabad that RAW officer S B S Tomar “is on board the hijacked Indian Airlines plane, and he is guiding, directing and controlling the five or six hijackers”. The Pak. Minister may be making a tall claim since there were around 150 odd passengers in the Aircraft who could have easily exposed the man. But, the point is the terrorists very well knew for four days before releasing him that Tomar was RAW, and they were in such a position to at least harm him or keep him alone for their further interrogation.
The Intel officer Tomar was the Brother-In-Law of NK Singh, who was then PM Vajpayee’s Chief Secretary.
He was never questioned nor punished for purposefully withholding the information from the P.M. 
Zoom to the golden ages of “entire” Political Science and you will find that NK Singh is now a Senior Member of the BJP and the Head of the 15th Finance Commission. Is it again a coincidence?

Why was SBS Tomar never investigated or punished for his lapse? He was awarded the position of an Empanelled DG by the Modi Government in 2019. (3/7) 📷Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 30
Thread: "Was Gujarat really number 1 under Modi?"
(1/9)
The narrative of Modi's Gujarat success was a colossal con, catapulting him to power in 2014. But behind the facade, his administration was less than average,

The hype of economic growth and social progress in Gujarat can be seen through the lens of data & facts. Once you see that, you will understand how we all had been taken for a ride with a fake narrative.
This study based "Difference of Differences" analysis, lays bare the reality. Where key indicators from the dimensions of Economy, Health, Education, Industry and Infrastructure are compared.

Modi's pedestal was built on lies, endangering the nation with unchecked greed and megalomania. As we approach another election, it's time to make amends.
Knowing these facts would be a stark reminder for everyone not to be fooled the third time.

Let's tear down the myth of Modi's achievements and strive for a future grounded in truth and progress.
Check ALT Text for methodology and details.
#NoVoteForBJP #NoVoteForModiThe methodology "Difference of Differences" is an evaluation method where comparable "large" States in India to Gujarat during the period between 2004 & 2014 (Since most data is available for all large states from 2004, it is taken instead of taking the starting point from 2001)  The source data is from RBI State Statistics https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?head=Handbook+of+Statistics+on+Indian+States & HDI from World Bank Sub National HDI Statistics.  The percentage differences between 2004 & 2014 are taken as the comparison.
(2/9)
Per Capita Income and Human Development Index (HDI) are crucial barometers of a state's well-being and progress. Per Capita Income measures the average income earned per person, reflecting the economic prosperity of a region. HDI, on the other hand, assesses factors like education, healthcare, and income to gauge the overall quality of life.

When these indicators stagnate or decline, it reflects poorly on the governance of a state. A lack of improvement suggests ineffective policies, mismanagement, or neglect of key sectors like education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
It indicates that the government is failing to uplift its citizens' living standards and ensure equitable growth.

Moreover, stagnant or declining Per Capita Income and HDI can exacerbate inequalities, deepen poverty, and hinder social mobility.
It highlights systemic issues and governance failures during the Modi years in Gujarat.Image
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(3/9)
Poverty Rate and Literacy Rate are vital indicators of a state's socio-economic health.
Modi has lagged even the laggard states in improving both the measures.
Obviously Modi doesn't care about education since he knows that it is so easy to get a certification on PG in "Entire Political" Science from the Gujarat University.
But lagging in reducing Poverty Rates would surprise even a hardcore WhatsApp Bhakt.Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 18
Thread:

There was a report on @Reuters that read;
"India can grow faster and better without Modi"
They have spoken about three factors.
There is more to it.
If you read till the end, you'll understand why there should be #NoVoteForModi.

Why Modi is a failure and has crippled India rather than allowing it to run to its full potential?
Read on;
(1/10)Image
Summary of reasons on why India can grow (only) without Modi.

Over-reliance on Indirect Taxes:
The current government heavily relies on indirect taxes, impacting the common person more than the rich.

Cut back in Welfare Expenditures:
Decreased support for vulnerable populations, potentially increasing inequality and poverty.

High focus on Infra programs without considering government capacity:
Infrastructure projects are delayed and corruption is rampant due to lack of capacity and honesty.

Overdependence on CESS & Surcharges:
Over-reliance on these non-divisible charges cripples States’ fiscal independence and limits revenue diversification.

Increasing “Centrally Sponsored Schemes” in State subjects:
Centralization undermines the autonomy of developed states, potentially leading to reduced growth.

Fueling Inflation by fiscally profligate:
Increased taxes and inflation have eroded the purchasing power of money, hurting those with fixed incomes.

Union Government’s aversion to Data & in sharing Data:
The government’s inefficiency and dishonesty in data sharing and census updates have led to disastrous situations like historic unemployment.

These are complex issues with potential implications for economic health and social equity. There should always be a difference between Harvard education and fake degree from Gujarat Univ., right?!
(2/10)Image
1. Over-reliance on Indirect Taxes.
Inequality and Taxation:
India ranks lower in the Inclusive Development Index compared to Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, indicating significant inequality. The country’s Direct-Indirect Tax Ratio is low at 34%, suggesting a need to reduce reliance on indirect taxes.

Comparison with Other Countries:
Countries like Denmark and Iceland, which rank high in the Inclusive Development Index, have a Direct to Indirect Tax Ratio of 60-70%.

Changes in Tax Policy:
Direct Taxes were 19.1% of the Union Tax Revenue in 1990-91, increased to 40% in 2009-10, but due to policy changes, the ratio is now approximately 50%/50% for the Union. Considering the State Government’s contribution, the Direct Tax Ratio is a low 34/66.

Tax Burden on Different Economic Classes:
The middle and lower-middle classes contribute more than 90% of the Direct Tax collection. The ratio got more skewed towards the lower end of the spectrum between 2014-15 & 2018-19.
The top 10% of the country contributes to only 4% of the indirect taxes, while the lower end of the economic spectrum pays more than 94% of both direct and indirect taxes.
(3/10)Image
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Read 10 tweets
Mar 13
(1/7) #DoYouKnow ?
Indians may cross border into Bangladesh soon. Bangladesh may be forced to enact their own #CAA #NRC to get "Gus beti" Indians out.
Very much possible if Modi is allowed to continue.
How? Read on.
By comparing with similar economies, we can clearly see why that would happen.
India has lost all the chance to catch-up with China, the next one to compete with is Vietnam. (They have also have gone far far ahead of India). Then comes Bangladesh, who may soon overtake India on all fronts.
Comparing India with both on 5 Key Development Indicators will prove that Modi's "Vikas hit Bharat" itself is a big jumla.
(Data Source : World Development Indicators, World Bank.
Also read )Image
Image
(2/7) India had transitioned from being a Low Income Country to Middle Income Country (Lower-middle) during UPA Years. That was possible due to increased Per Capita Income. This had really brought millions of Indians out of poverty.
If Modi had really worked for the people, he should have taken the country to be an "Upper Middle Income" level.
Instead he is taking the Annual income of the billions backward, while increasing hourly income of Ambani and Adani to millions.
Bangladesh has really done wonders in this period. Per Capita Income of India has flattened due to Modinomics like Demonetization, botched GST, crippling the growth oriented States like KA, TN, TS etc. with his partisan policies, etc.Image
(3/7) Nominal GDP.
Despite all the jumla optics around fastest growing economy and fifth largest economy etc., the reality is India has underperformed when compared to Bangladesh and Vietnam.
That too in Nominal GDP itself. (Nominal includes inflation) Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 17, 2023
I should have tweeted about this long back.
Proof - how bloated the GDP calculation of India after the Modi Gobarment changed the way it is calculated.

As usual, another thread.
Bear with me and read on.
Thanks @BalaFun1 for his prompt.
(1/20)
Full background.
Those who do not have the patience can jump to Tweet #11-20 for the actual proof of wrong doing.
In the hands of a bad cook, even a best recipe can become poison.
This is what happened when the Gobt. decided to follow a new method for GDP calculation.
(2/20)
MoSPI revises the base year for GDP Calculations periodically. In 2018, the base year was updated from 2004-05 to 2011-12
It means the prices at 2011-12 will be taken as 100 and then the GDP growth will be calculated.
That has shown the reality, BJP could not match the...(3/20)
Read 22 tweets
Aug 25, 2022
ஒரு கதை சொல்ட்டா சார்?

ஊழலை ஒழிப்பதாக கூறி பிரச்சாரம் செய்து நைஜீரியாவின் புதிய மந்திரி ஆகிறார் Ignatious.
பதவியில் அமர்ந்த உடன் சொன்னபடி ஊழல் மீது ஒரு பெரும் யுத்தத்தை தொடங்குகிறார். யாரும் குற்றம் கூற இயலாதபடிஅவர் மிகவும் நேர்மையானவராக நடந்து கொள்கிறார். (1/8)
எந்த அளவுக்கு என்றால், தன்னுடைய குடும்பம் விடுமுறைக்கு செல்லும் பொது வரும் அரசு பாதுகாவலர்களின் செலவை அவருக்கு பில் அனுப்புமாறு கேட்கும் அளவுக்கு அப்படி ஒரு சுத்தம். மக்களுக்கு வாக்களித்தபடி உள் நாட்டு ஊழல் மட்டும் அல்லாது வெளி நாட்டு கருப்புப்பணத்தையும் கொண்டு வர,(2/8)
எத்தனை நைஜீரியர்கள் தங்கள் செல்வங்களை சுவிஸ் வங்கிகளில் வைத்திருக்கிறார்கள் என்பதை அறிய விழைகிறார்.கிளம்புகிறார் ஸ்விட்ஸ்ர்லாந்துக்கு ... அங்கு மிகப்பிரபலமான ஒரு வங்கிக்குள் ஒரு பெட்டியுடன் செல்கிறார்.
(3/8)
Read 8 tweets

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