In an weird twist this guy, whose name I think now can be revealed (Sergey Surkov) drops with yet another complaints and allegations against their commanders and organizers of the Russian mobilization. Says they're "somewhere in Belgorod region". t.me/insiderUKR/428…
There are some other videos too from the spot: soldiers complain that they have no food, weapons are old and stuff. t.me/rybar/39798
I didn't geolocate it yet, but wherever it's filmed it starts to smell like a staged story now a little bit for me (TBC)
The video was posted on and being reposted by pro-Wagner channels, which matches Prigozhin's "Fire Shojgu" narrative (t.me/rsotmdivision/…). Also some Wagner patches are visible on it. Nearly all "poor mobiks" on the video wear balaclavas
(I think patches are just a kind of Prigozhin's "Easter egg" here). The guy also makes a weird claim they've all (he says 500 people) got COVID on that train.
Here's Rybar's video with the Wagner patches filmed at the same location t.me/rybar/39798
Video can be geolocated here: 50.44419° N, 38.30003° E (h/t @merr1k), other sources confirm it's Livenka, Belgirod region. t.me/agentstvonews/…
Russian MoD makes ridiculous claim that these guys headed to Mulino for training. If they departed from Moscow to Belgorod and then for training to Mulino, their route would look like this:
(And I say "departed from Moscow" because same "Sergey Surkov" posted his 1st complaints video from there 2 week ago).
There's still plenty to investigate, I leave some space for "it's all for real" theory, just shared my concerns and will continue to look into this story.
Just noticed one more Wagner associated patch on one of the men in balaclavas. After watching this video for several times I clearly see the group of 8-10 people hiding their faces and better equipped than others.
Great recap of the whole story by @mediazzzona. We dug together all day, but didn't find evidence of Prigozhin's direct involvement. The fact though is "Putin's cook" and his media channels jumped heavily on the stories about poor mobilization management. zona.media/article/2022/1…
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🧵A Russian diplomat, pressured to leave Brussels amid espionage allegations, has been nominated for a key role in the OSCE. Another 19 diplomats were expelled too, with open sources clearly showing their ties to Russian intelligence (and yes, they liked posting on Strava).
But first things first: meet Dmitry Iordanidi, a former deputy head of the @OSCE mission to Bosnia-Herzegovina with deep experience in the Balkans, who was nominated by Moscow to lead the organization’s mission to Serbia.
Russia also nominated Iordanidi to head an OSCE program office in Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek, and for the same position in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana. I think that falls under the ‘flood the field’ tactic.
🧵/ link in the last post. Remember Bosnian Serb Davor Savičić, who recruited Serbs to fight in Ukraine? Using a leaked database of Russian WIAs, we found he’s a GRU colonel with personal tag V-0001 ('V' for 'Волки' – 'Wolves' – as his battalion was named after his callsign).
It's well known that both 'private' military companies where Savičić fought, 'Wagner' & ‘Redut,’ were overseen by GRU (GU GSH). Previous investigations found several GRU staffers there, but it was never revealed that Savičić is a GRU colonel himself
Savičić got a shrapnel wound to his right shoulder on June 17, 2022. At that time, Russian forces were attempting to attack Severodonetsk, while the UAF were counterattacking near Izyum. The exact location where Savičić was wounded remains unknown.
🧵With my colleagues, we analyzed the Russian Main Military Medical Directorate's database on 166,000 hospitalizations in Russian MoD facilities (Jan 2022–June 2024). It's incomplete but offers insights into the Russian army's dynamics. svoboda.org/a/tysyach-rane…
First things first: THIS DATABASE SHOULD NOT BE USED TO ESTIMATE TOTALS. It doesn't have those hospitalized to civilian hospitals, very limited number of wounded in 'DNR' and 'LNR' hospitals, etc. Thanks to @MassDara and @Mortis_Banned for their comments on the data we studied.
Also, A LOT of soldiers stay for a day or 2 in a field hospital before being sent back to front. They DO NOT MAKE IT TO THIS DATABASE.
🧵/ Link in the last post. How much information can one get from a single blurred-out police video with the help of OSINT? Let’s find out together. No BS – we're talking 'possible precursors to chemical weapons or nerve agents' here, destined for Russia and seized in Spain.
Back in October 2024, Spanish police reported the seizure of 13 tons of 'chemical products' in the port of Barcelona, destined for Russia. It was claimed to be the result of a two-year-long special operation. 4 people were arrested. interior.gob.es/opencms/gl/det…
The operation was named 'Probirka' ('test tube' in Russian) and was carried out together with the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) as part of the enforcement of EU sanctions against Russia. anti-fraud.ec.europa.eu/media-corner/n…
🧵Timur Praliev, arresred in the U.S. for illegally crossing the border from Mexico, received an official 'combat veteran ID' as a 'former Wagner fighter' less than a month ago, as we found together with @Mike_Eckel and @CarlSchreck.
A photo of Praliev receiving his veteran ID was posted on VK on Dec. 12th. The event took place in Bashkortostan: . We found Praliev's empty VK acc., which lists the same YOB as in the U.S. court docs (1993), and one of his friends confirmed that it is him.archive.is/jYw10
What puzzles me most about this story is the timing. On December 12th, Praliev receives his official Russian veteran ID as a 'former Wagner fighter.' By January 10th, Praliev is arrested with a drone in his backpack after crossing into the United States from Mexico. Insanely fast
1/2 Comparison of Dec. 5 and Dec. 10 HR @Planet satellite images of the Russian airbase in Al-Jufra, Libya, shows an Il-76 loading/unloading, as well as newly appeared objects which I hesitate to ID (maybe radars?)