Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 5 11 tweets 4 min read
#HurricaneIAN #ExtremeWeather Update THREAD

The remnants of Hurricane Ian are showing little sign of abandoning the Tri State area. This is from this morning CEST before sunrise.
And here we see #HurricaneIAN this evening. In the morning Ian had developed a distinct visible rotation at its center. And this evening this started to move south downthe coast rather than East as it has been forcasted to do for some time.
This is this morning's 24 hour forecast.
To be fair it is moving a little to the east as well. Here was this morning's 24hr Nam-Conus model rain forecast.
And the last few hours rain radar. (@accuweather)
If the forecast is correct the remnants ought to start speeding up its south easterly departure about now.
The overall slow moving convection structure here - which is a morphed version of the structure in which #HurricaneIAN was embedded in when it struck Florida is huge - and very slow moving.

Whilst unusual in size, what is most unusual about it is its slow movement, its inertia. Image
It's next impacts will be felt across the Atlantic in Europe where it is currently forecast to contribute towards six or seven atmospheric rivers of differing intensity over the next 16 days.
Rain which appears to be fairly evenly distributed, and which will be welcome wherever it doesn't cause flooding, following this summer's drought.
And finally a look inside the engine room, at the fluid dynamics over the Atlantic Ocean.

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More from @althecat

Oct 7
This might be a good moment for @WilliamsRuto to replace his peace envoy with someone less closely associated with the TPLF.
The irony of this is that the communique that he refers to is dated the same day as the invitation to the talks was sent - which the TPLF took four days to officially respond to. This is not the more recent statement issued publicly by @reda_getachew.
It is abundantly clear that former President Uhuru Kenyatta is doing the bidding here of the TPLF. And I would not be at all surprised if @DrTedros is involved in this someway also.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 7
Future #HurricaneJulia #ExtremeWeather update thread.

Tropical Depression #13L is finally over open water. At 355,000km2 it is a bit bigger than Germany. And it is expected to become a hurricane before arriving in Nicaragua on Sunday. It has already killed at least 8 people. Image
Here is an HRWF model simulation of the storm's path to Nicaragua it is currently expected to arrive there at around 3am local time, but wind and rain will arrive a lot earlier.
Earlier I posted a thread looking a little closer at the expected impact/threadt posed to the 56 million inhabitants of 8 Central American Countries (excluding Mexico) over the next 16 days.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 7
#CentralAmerica #ClimateChangeNOW #ExtremeWeather #HurricaneJulia #IMPACT 16-day assessment THREAD.

It is time to consider what is about to happen in Central America from a #LossAndDamages perspective. Image
With less than 72 hours till #HurricaneJulia's expected landfall in Nicaragua, #TD13L #PC13L #Invest91L has already wreaked untold havoc in Venezeula, it is now over Colombia. The death toll is rising.

What is ahead is dangerous. #ExtremeWeather impacts for 200 million souls. ImageImage
Localised extreme events (locations unknown) are modelled in this forecast of up to 40 inches of rain over the 16 day period. And on the current forecast the storm will make two passes, turning back after reaching the Gulf of Mexico.
Read 25 tweets
Oct 7
CORRECTION: This resolution was passed last night. Seemingly exceedingly quickly. >> report here >> europarl.europa.eu/news/pt/press-…

The press statement highlights the issue of Child Soldiers. ImageImage
The procedure for the resolution about Ethiopian human rights that was passed last year before the UNHRC set up ICHREE must have been different than this. The EP is very complicated, expert advice is needed I think.
This may explain why this happened so rapidly. And now. @DrTedros's friend @JosepBorrellF was previously an MEP for the S&D group which is one of the groups that supported the resolution. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 7
It looks like this resolution hasn't been passed by the Parliament yet it is waiting on a vote.

The resolution was introduced by 52 named MEPs representing four parties which collectively have 493 votes which is a majority however.
That said resolutions on "topical subjects" are subject to a procedure in this case RSP
Draft resolution >> europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document…
Procedural progress page for this RSP >> oeil.secure.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/popups/fi…)
And it seems the procedure depends on which rule it is under - in this case Rule 144 "Debates on cases of breaches of human rights, democracy and the rule of law" (screenshot of text below)
RULES of the EP >> europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document… ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Oct 7
#ExtremeWeather Potential Cyclone #PC13L Update Thread.

@NHC_Atlantic is dispatching a second reconnaissance mission to investigate the disturbance off the coast of Venezeula as the storm approaches open water after spending several hours partially over land.
@NHC_Atlantic A comprehensive discussion has now been released by @NHC_Atlantic [ nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M…] providing an insight into what the experts expecting from this tropical tropical wave, which has been given a rare "Near 100%" probability of becoming #HurricaneJulia. Image
The long range Hurricane Hunter mission will determine amid all the noisy convection whether the storm has a clear circulation - which it needs to progress from being a wave to become a disturbance or a Tropical Storm - at which point it will get a name. Image
Read 6 tweets

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