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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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Oct 6 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#Invest91L appears to now have a hurricane like structure. The first image from CMISS appears to be newer than the the Second & 3rd one from GOES East.
This definitely looks like #HurricaneJulia. She has an eye and a perfectly symetrical form & outflows.
& from @zoom_earth

If this is a #hurricaneJulia it is moving very fast. Possibly too fast. Extrapolating the speed from the time stamps I get 88kmh or 47 knots. Possibly too fast?

It could a pre-cylone-genesis vortex perhaps?
This is where is investigation started 1km visible floater imagery from CMISS. It remains the most compelling satellite imagery showing #Invest91L may have become or is in the process of completing its transfroamtion into #HurricaneJulia.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 8
#ClimateChangeNOW #ExtremeWeather #HurricaneJulia update thread 8-10-22

A lot has changed in the last 12 hours - not so much in the short term but in the longer term model track predictions - and therefore in the outcomes which can be expected for the wider region.
Specifically fromthe latest GFS run (and its predecessors) the degree of uncertainty with respect to impacts is increasing. At present Julia is not officially a hurricane and the extent of structure in the 300km wide central area of convection is not known.

Latest GFS Run.
The GFS data has changed the official forecast in line with what we see inthe last model and instead of taking a more northerly path through central America the storm is now expected to cross the Isthmus into the Pacific relatively swiftly. Image
Read 23 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 7
I get that the TPLF do not want to attend peace AU talks, ever, anywhere.

But I am amazed at the lengths they seem to be prepared to go to in order make sure they do not discuss peace so they can continue a completely pointless war that is killing 1000s of their children. Image
Enlisting the @WHO, @JosepBorrellF, a majority of the European Parliament and the UNHRC and the former President of Kenya in this project is a master work, especially whilst keeping them all in the dark about the master plan.
But to what end?

Do the TPLF love war so much that they seek to never stop? Even if it means living in caves and hiding from drones and seeing their families and friends die?

It really is a tragedy. The peace talks ought to be on tomorrow in South Africa.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 7
This is a controversial text. Trans:

"We transgressed against people belittling them.
Their fates our fate, please walk in their shoes.

I think tplf is thinking of the London negotiations and saying this to Azmari. As they left them there, they will be left there."
I gather the reference to London negotiations is to those held in 1991 following the fall of Mengistu.
Who or what is Azmari?
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 7
This might be a good moment for @WilliamsRuto to replace his peace envoy with someone less closely associated with the TPLF.
The irony of this is that the communique that he refers to is dated the same day as the invitation to the talks was sent - which the TPLF took four days to officially respond to. This is not the more recent statement issued publicly by @reda_getachew.
It is abundantly clear that former President Uhuru Kenyatta is doing the bidding here of the TPLF. And I would not be at all surprised if @DrTedros is involved in this someway also.
Read 9 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 7
Future #HurricaneJulia #ExtremeWeather update thread.

Tropical Depression #13L is finally over open water. At 355,000km2 it is a bit bigger than Germany. And it is expected to become a hurricane before arriving in Nicaragua on Sunday. It has already killed at least 8 people. Image
Here is an HRWF model simulation of the storm's path to Nicaragua it is currently expected to arrive there at around 3am local time, but wind and rain will arrive a lot earlier.
Earlier I posted a thread looking a little closer at the expected impact/threadt posed to the 56 million inhabitants of 8 Central American Countries (excluding Mexico) over the next 16 days.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 7
#CentralAmerica #ClimateChangeNOW #ExtremeWeather #HurricaneJulia #IMPACT 16-day assessment THREAD.

It is time to consider what is about to happen in Central America from a #LossAndDamages perspective. Image
With less than 72 hours till #HurricaneJulia's expected landfall in Nicaragua, #TD13L #PC13L #Invest91L has already wreaked untold havoc in Venezeula, it is now over Colombia. The death toll is rising.

What is ahead is dangerous. #ExtremeWeather impacts for 200 million souls. ImageImage
Localised extreme events (locations unknown) are modelled in this forecast of up to 40 inches of rain over the 16 day period. And on the current forecast the storm will make two passes, turning back after reaching the Gulf of Mexico.
Read 25 tweets

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