Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 6 4 tweets 4 min read
Latest visual #RAMMB Imagery of #Invest91L #PC13L #Hurricanejulia

Its definitely alive and well and battling with the land space and on the NW track. Not yet cohesive and moving rapidly.

Its leading edge is approaching Aruba.
1. A large part of the storm is now over land. But that does not appear to be bothering it too much.

2. When looked at from a zoomed out perspective the "pinecone" shape of the storm has returned.

This #RAAMB microwave imagery shows a circular feature, the majority of which is over land. I'm guessing this is a tool to identify the center under all the cloud.

If so then the center should be back over clear water fairly soon.
The peak in this intensity guidance for #PC13L is the moment #HurricaneJulia it is forecas to make landfall on the East coast of Nicaragua, around midday on Sunday.

Whilst it may or may not be very strong, it will definitely be very large and very wet.

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More from @althecat

Oct 8
#ClimateChangeNOW #ExtremeWeather #HurricaneJulia update thread 8-10-22 (late evening CEST)
The possibility Julia may never become a hurricane is clearly on the cards. Her continued divergence (southwards) from the offical track also has signifcant implications r.e. impact.
This is illustrated in the latest GFS model run. The full 16 day run is a little implausible but this 165 hours is at least credible.

As you can see here the remnants of Julia cross the isthmus (as discussed in the last update) and then moves deeper into the Pacific.
The first image here is the rain solution for that first 165 hours.

The second is a rainfall solution through to 300 hours. Whilst still alarming to say the least, it is different from earlier runs wrt more rain over the southern coasts than the northern coasts. ImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8
#ClimateChangeNOW #ExtremeWeather #HurricaneJulia update thread 8-10-22

A lot has changed in the last 12 hours - not so much in the short term but in the longer term model track predictions - and therefore in the outcomes which can be expected for the wider region.
Specifically fromthe latest GFS run (and its predecessors) the degree of uncertainty with respect to impacts is increasing. At present Julia is not officially a hurricane and the extent of structure in the 300km wide central area of convection is not known.

Latest GFS Run.
The GFS data has changed the official forecast in line with what we see inthe last model and instead of taking a more northerly path through central America the storm is now expected to cross the Isthmus into the Pacific relatively swiftly. Image
Read 23 tweets
Oct 7
I get that the TPLF do not want to attend peace AU talks, ever, anywhere.

But I am amazed at the lengths they seem to be prepared to go to in order make sure they do not discuss peace so they can continue a completely pointless war that is killing 1000s of their children. Image
Enlisting the @WHO, @JosepBorrellF, a majority of the European Parliament and the UNHRC and the former President of Kenya in this project is a master work, especially whilst keeping them all in the dark about the master plan.
But to what end?

Do the TPLF love war so much that they seek to never stop? Even if it means living in caves and hiding from drones and seeing their families and friends die?

It really is a tragedy. The peace talks ought to be on tomorrow in South Africa.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 7
This is a controversial text. Trans:

"We transgressed against people belittling them.
Their fates our fate, please walk in their shoes.

I think tplf is thinking of the London negotiations and saying this to Azmari. As they left them there, they will be left there."
I gather the reference to London negotiations is to those held in 1991 following the fall of Mengistu.
Who or what is Azmari?
Read 4 tweets
Oct 7
This might be a good moment for @WilliamsRuto to replace his peace envoy with someone less closely associated with the TPLF.
The irony of this is that the communique that he refers to is dated the same day as the invitation to the talks was sent - which the TPLF took four days to officially respond to. This is not the more recent statement issued publicly by @reda_getachew.
It is abundantly clear that former President Uhuru Kenyatta is doing the bidding here of the TPLF. And I would not be at all surprised if @DrTedros is involved in this someway also.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 7
Future #HurricaneJulia #ExtremeWeather update thread.

Tropical Depression #13L is finally over open water. At 355,000km2 it is a bit bigger than Germany. And it is expected to become a hurricane before arriving in Nicaragua on Sunday. It has already killed at least 8 people. Image
Here is an HRWF model simulation of the storm's path to Nicaragua it is currently expected to arrive there at around 3am local time, but wind and rain will arrive a lot earlier.
Earlier I posted a thread looking a little closer at the expected impact/threadt posed to the 56 million inhabitants of 8 Central American Countries (excluding Mexico) over the next 16 days.
Read 5 tweets

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