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@1goodtern

Jan 15

This may be obvious to everyone else already, but it occurred to me today that ICE just does not have the manpower to do everywhere what it's doing in Minnesota.

The surge there is not sustainable nationwide.

But the appearance of ICE being everywhere right now is heavily shaped by the unusually large and concentrated deployment in Minnesota, which is drawing outsized attention and resources.

They don't have capacity to mount similar surges everywhere simultaneously, especially given training and logistical limits.

Read 14 tweets

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@1goodtern

Jan 14

One of my dissertations was on the causes of the second world war.

I wrote it late, in a hurry, when I was young, naive, sleep deprived, and thought that it was ancient history.

But one aspect of what I wrote was what Germany looked like *from the outside*.
🧵

Here are six key views of Germany from other countries at the time that totally misread the situation.

Some of them might be relevant today.

They overlap a bit, but I've put a rough timeline along with them.

Read 61 tweets

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@1goodtern

Jan 10

Just imagine for a moment that you are infected with a virus that harms the lining of your arteries. The virus doesn't damage the artery walls in every part of your body to exactly the same degree. Some parts will be more damaged, some less.

At your next infection, will the parts of your artery wall that were more damaged first time round be more or less vulnerable to the virus?

It's an interesting question, isn't it.

Will those damaged parts be better equipped the next time round?

Sadly the answer is no

Those harder-hit patches do not reset to factory condition once the acute infection passes.

Read 9 tweets

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@1goodtern

Jan 10

I just want to do a very quick run through the latest up to date charts of rates of sickness absence in *young* doctors here.

Yeah. This is still *really* important, and I'll explain why in a moment.

There are some really really important points before I get on to the graphs.

First off - these are young doctors in their mid to late 20s.
'F1s' and 'F2s' and 'Core Training' doctors.

There may be a very tiny number of older F1s and F2s, but *they're rare*.

Read 77 tweets

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@1goodtern

Jan 9

Let's play "Guess Where The Line Goes"

This one is "Retirement Due To Ill Health, NHS England".

It's a horrible thing to be playing games with, but I think it's less horrible to play 'Guess Where The Line Goes' than to ignore it altogether.

A, B, C, or D?

Read 27 tweets

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@1goodtern

Jan 8

The minimisers would have you believe that every bad health condition develops immediately, symptoms of it appear immediately, medical attention is found immediately, and the condition is diagnosed immediately.

The truth is very different.

It can take years for conditions to develop after they have been triggered.

It can take years for the symptoms to become bad enough to need medical attention.

Read 17 tweets

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