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tern Profile picture
tern
@1goodtern
Empathy, science, determination, hope.
Mar 22 • 16 tweets • 2 min read
Five things about this study.

First, even mild Covid infection screws your immune system so you're 60% more likely to be hospitalised by EBV/mono/glandular fever for and the effect lasts ages.

Covid infection can screw up your immune system. Second, we're talking about *hospitalisation* by EBV after the covid infection, so it's not just getting extra 'mild' bugs afterwards.
Mar 21 • 59 tweets • 6 min read
I've seen this gotcha quite a few times now:
"If the Kent meningitis outbreak was caused by Covid, why is it just in Kent?"
Which completely misses the point of what people mean when they say that outbreaks like this are made more likely by the damage caused by covid infections. Wildfires aren't a perfect analogy for infection outbreaks - but they can help us understand certain aspects.

Think of a whole country made more prone to wildfires by a drought.
Mar 20 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Enormously massively huge studies have shown that each wave of Covid infections causes damage to people's immune systems. The science is incontrovertible.

And yet you will not find a single media article about the current meningitis outbreak that mentions that. It's really simple.
It's been established science for decades that "a low CD4 count... has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of Invasive Meningococcal Disease"
Governments base policies on this established science.
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10…Image
Mar 20 • 24 tweets • 3 min read
Don't you get it?

If lots of people in your population have lower ability to fight infection, it doesn't just mean those people are more likely to *catch* infections.

It means they are more likely to *spread* them too.

Let me explain.
This is important. Jack has a metal lunchbox.
No ants can get into his lunchbox, so when he leaves the park, no ants fall out of his lunchbox.

Annie has a lunch bag made of wool.
Ants can climb into it, and they can also fall out easily too.
And that's what they do.
Mar 19 • 56 tweets • 2 min read
Ten things they'll be telling us about meningitis before the end of the week: 1
It's mild
Mar 19 • 21 tweets • 3 min read
I'm sitting at my computer with 46 tabs open with media stories about the meningitis outbreak from the last 3 days.

Following mainstream coverage, govt statements and UKHSA briefings on the meningitis outbreak has been surprisingly tiring.

Here are a few of the inconsistencies: "Outbreak has been contained." Then within 16 hours: "It is too soon to say the outbreak is contained."
Mar 13 • 22 tweets • 3 min read
All day I've been whacking my head against this vital tweet and the press release attached to it.

It's probably one of the most important things I've read about the early progression of the pandemic, but it's very hard to express concisely the huge scandal they've exposed here. The central difficulty with getting your head round it is that there are *two* scandals detailed here:

👉The first is that key advice by experts was ignored in 2020.

👉The second is that a huge amount of money seems to have been spent covering that up.
Mar 8 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Them: But if Covid infections lower your lymphocytes wouldn't more people be dying from infections??

Me: Yes, that's right, that's exactly what's happening. 👇 Image Also them: But those people are probably just weak and old. Surely we'd also see some kind of increase in sickness among healthy young people, specifically from infections?

Me: Yes, that too 👇 Image
Mar 6 • 27 tweets • 3 min read
Why don't people grasp how serious this is?

Across an entire population, losing more than three years of your healthy life expectancy...

That is just staggering.

Especially because of this: The big problem is that it *isn't even distributed evenly*.
Mar 3 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
This one should be labelled 'Public Health Failure'. Yep, I've taken funerals for two of these. Image
Mar 3 • 90 tweets • 22 min read
What are people dying from?
How do those causes of death change from year to year? We have a big database here in England that helps catalogue causes of death. The most recent version is for the year 2024.
Feb 7 • 46 tweets • 4 min read
People don't understand that there are several real models of cumulative harm that apply to covid infections.

People don't like complex ideas, so they avoid them.

This is going to be a long thread, with several simple ideas that combine to make a big complex one. First off, we *know* beyond all doubt that covid infections cause short term harm.
Feb 5 • 32 tweets • 5 min read
Do midwives know that they're now twice as likely to be off sick with a pregnancy related disorder than before the Covid pandemic started? Image Do nurses?
And health visitors? Image
Jan 22 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
I think one of the most important conclusions people are missing from the data in the recent big studies is that covid infections cause radically diverse long term effects in different age groups. So much so that it could appear as if they've been infected with different viruses.
Jan 20 • 51 tweets • 6 min read
Okay folks, I'm calling it, and it's bad news:

The word mucinous is going to become much more common.

Yes, bookmark this tweet, it looks bland, but it's important. oh, okay. I won't leave you hanging.

I've written a lot recently about how we're missing the big picture of how covid infection is doing cumulative damage to interfaces in the body - linings, membranes, barriers, walls, filters.
Jan 19 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
I know, I know, you're going to laugh at me for saying that you're more likely to have problems with cramp after you've had a covid infection, but it's all very simple science. Loads of people have been mentioning cramp recently, and like so many other conditions, yes, covid infection makes it more likely, and makes it worse.
It's just an extra factor on top of all the normal factors for cramp.
Jan 18 • 32 tweets • 3 min read
Do you know which whacky loons say that covid infections increase the risk of heart disease?
The British Heart Foundation. Do you know which antivaxers say that covid vaccines do not fully protect against infection, illness, or long term effects?
Pfizer.
Jan 18 • 13 tweets • 1 min read
⚠️
The three subtle warning signs that everyone's missing: 1
All of the people asking "why is everyone sick all the time now?"
Jan 17 • 86 tweets • 8 min read
A couple of very important studies out just in the last 24 hours confirming what we've been saying for years and years now: Covid infections affect your immune system *badly*.
Here's a few things you may have missed in them. Image This is almost entirely post vaccination data
This is not an unprotected population.
Baseline immune measurements come from a period when vaccination coverage was already high, and the immune damage appears *after mass infection*.
Jan 15 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
You're not going to like the next tweet in this thread, so don't read it. I don't think there's a difference between the set 'people who have had a covid infection' and 'people who have long term effects from a covid infection'.
Jan 15 • 14 tweets • 1 min read
This may be obvious to everyone else already, but it occurred to me today that ICE just does not have the manpower to do everywhere what it's doing in Minnesota.

The surge there is not sustainable nationwide. But the appearance of ICE being everywhere right now is heavily shaped by the unusually large and concentrated deployment in Minnesota, which is drawing outsized attention and resources.