Alexander Baunov Profile picture
Oct 7 10 tweets 2 min read
THREAD 1/10 The #Nobel Peace Prize Committee has made a very good decision by awarding this year’s Peace Prize to Belarusian human rights advocate Ales’ Bialiatski, the Russian human rights organization Memorial, and the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties.
2/10 This is a very accurate decision that stands in opposition to attempts to divide nations into good and bad ones.
3/10 It runs counter to dehumanizing but, unfortunately, quite popular discourse that “bad nations” are devoid of good and deserving people who are important for the world, let alone among public activists and organizations.
4/10 To them, every single activist and organization and regular subjects of a dictatorship are its associates and accomplices. “That’s not true,” says the Nobel Committee by awarding the joint prize to people representing the aggressor, victim, and accomplice countries.
5/10 “They are not by default associates,” explains the committee by giving two-thirds of the prize to residents of two dictatorial regimes.
6/10 In the time of war, it's important for the Noble Peace Prize Committee to emphasize that the demarcation line between victim and aggressor, good and evil, dignity and villainy is not synonymous with state border or even the frontline.
7/10 By awarding the Noble Peace Prize to someone from Russia for the second time in a row – an exceptionally rare occasion – at the time when Russia looks and acts worse than perhaps ever before, the Committee is sending a message to the world
8/10 and particularly to some European neighbors who are trying to dispense with the above principle and simplistically divide nations.
9/10 Let me remind on this occasion two my pieces about Memorial. One in the @ForeignPolicy foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/20/rus…
10/10 And another one in Carnegie carnegie.ru/commentary/857…

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More from @baunov

Sep 30
THREAD 1/6 Putin’s speech on the occasion of the annexation of four Ukrainian regions by Russia was a rather tedious enumeration of myths and legends about an ancient and imaginary West. But there were three aspects worthy of attention from a practical point of view.
2/6 i) “The Nord Stream gas pipelines were blow up by the USA.” The practical consequences are that Russia is now “entitled” to respond in kind, Russia is not responsible for stopping energy supplies to Europe, & Gazprom may not have to pay for missed deliveries.
3/6 ii) The appeal to Ukraine to immediately cease hostilities, withdraw its troops from the new “Russian” territories and sit down at the negotiating table.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 30
1/6 The big picture: Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Endowment describes Putin's Russia as a "country of fences," where citizens sacrifice political rights for security, but keep a fence around their private lives. axios.com/2022/09/29/put…
2/6 Putin has now breached that fence — and violated his "unwritten contract" — by taking "husbands, sons, brothers into the army," Baunov says.
3/6 While people who never openly opposed Putin are fleeing the draft, street protests in Russian cities are still mainly limited to a small pro-Western, anti-war segment of the population, he says.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 20
THREAD 1/9 Today, with no warning, amendments to Russian law were introduced to the Duma & immediately passed in 3 readings. They bring Russia much closer to full mobilization & stipulate harsh penalties for failing to report for military duty, surrendering, or refusal to fight.
2/9 Taken together with demands for “immediate,”—maybe even online—referendums in all parts of occupied Ukrainian territory on becoming part of Russia, the message is clear.
3/9 That message is: “You chose to fight us in Ukraine, now try to fight us in Russia itself, or, to be precise, what we call Russia.” The hope is that the West will baulk at this.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 19
THREAD 1/10 Alla #Pugacheva, Russia’s biggest pop star for many generations, has spoken out against Putin’s war in Ukraine. She also spoke in defense of her husband, the comedian & actor Maxim Galkin, who was labeled a foreign agent on Friday after previously condemning the war. Image
2/10 Pugacheva and Galkin left Russia soon after its invasion of Ukraine. Galkin, an immensely popular TV star and household name, was instantly critical of the war, but Pugacheva, who is considerably older than her husband, was less vocal, though their departure spoke volumes.
3/10 Her return to Russia a few days ago prompted speculations that she had come back to salvage her property & high position within the Russian elite. Instead, a few days after her return, Pugacheva wrote a short but very harsh Instagram post about the “special operation.”
Read 10 tweets
Sep 17
THREAD 1/6 Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive is having multiple political effects. Here are four of them:

i) Moscow has postponed referenda on occupied Ukrainian territory becoming part of Russia.
2/6 It’s one thing to lose a piece of hostile territory, and quite another to lose a piece of territory officially proclaimed as part of Russia. That would be a terrible blow to the Kremlin’s prestige.
3/6 ii) Russia’s retreat will deter Ukrainian collaborators. Those with pro-Russian sympathies will be far more wary of showing them, accepting Russian passports & joining Russian administrations etc. That will make it harder for Moscow to govern the occupied territory.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 29
THREAD 1/12 With the outbreak of the war, three social groups took shape. First, there are the declared opponents of the war. This attitude can be expressed above all by those who can afford to leave Russia, but the aversion to the war is no less among many who have stayed
2/12 On the other hand, there are those who simply adapt to life under the new conditions, who try to block out the war, so to speak, in order to preserve as much as possible, the normality of the past bit.ly/3Ayx21n
3/12 Finally, there are those who think that the war must transform the entire Russian society —  that the Russians should become a mobilized nation, and that the war should completely transform not only the economic order and its elite, but also the structure of everyday life.
Read 12 tweets

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