Heh, Twitter filing in the court today said pretty much what I said in this thread.
And why the judge has set up Oct 28 as a deadline to complete the merger if he's really serious, or trial starts in November.
It ain't over until the fat laddie pays up.
And why the judge has set up Oct 28 as a deadline to complete the merger if he's really serious, or trial starts in November.
It ain't over until the fat laddie pays up.
https://twitter.com/gauravsabnis/status/1577534487457632257
The path from here is clear.
Either Musk throws another tantrum and invents some new excuse to drag it out.
Or he swallows a $44 bn loss, cos no way any serious banker believes he can actually make Twitter profitable, so heavy #TSLA collateral. And he shuts Twitter down.
Either Musk throws another tantrum and invents some new excuse to drag it out.
Or he swallows a $44 bn loss, cos no way any serious banker believes he can actually make Twitter profitable, so heavy #TSLA collateral. And he shuts Twitter down.
The real question is whether October Musk is actually willing to cash the check that April Musk wrote. Of paying $44 bn of his own money (banks ain't stupid) to take over what will NEVER be a company profitable enough for a real leveraged buyout. Just to shut it down.
It's such a batshit insane marriage if you look objectively at all the facts instead of just buying into the usual Musk hagiography. Twitter will be Cersei to Musk's Robert Baratheon if he lets it remain Twitter instead of making it his own Truth Social equivalent.
Given that his banks testified that he's not even initiated talks about the financing yet, it's becoming increasingly clear that his thinking was "oh fuck I'm getting a lot of heat from Ukraine. Lemme just say I'll buy Twitter and change the subject."
https://twitter.com/gauravsabnis/status/1577536047822639107?t=MO7aGyIkbsqjkMSPd27C-w&s=19
#TSLA stock fell 6% today after the Delaware ruling and a total 12% this week since his Ukraine polls.
Muskbois who don't understand Beta will be like oh market fell (not even close to Tesla).
But it's falling for the same reason it fell in May. Musk effectively shorted it.
Muskbois who don't understand Beta will be like oh market fell (not even close to Tesla).
But it's falling for the same reason it fell in May. Musk effectively shorted it.
I've laid out this simple FIN101 lesson in May but will do so again.
The only way Musk can complete this purchase is by selling #TSLA or putting up stock in collateral.
His only wealth is TSLA stock.
His buying TWTR = taking a $44 bn short position on #TSLA. Hence it tanks.
The only way Musk can complete this purchase is by selling #TSLA or putting up stock in collateral.
His only wealth is TSLA stock.
His buying TWTR = taking a $44 bn short position on #TSLA. Hence it tanks.
The more Musk keeps insisting he will buy Twitter by Oct 28, the faster #TSLA will fall, just like it did in May.
Cos if the company's biggest shareholder is shorting it to the tune of $44 bn, of course a lot of people will sell before he has to. Driving Tesla stock lower.
Cos if the company's biggest shareholder is shorting it to the tune of $44 bn, of course a lot of people will sell before he has to. Driving Tesla stock lower.
Heh, @Twitter's filing in response to Musk reminds me of this scene from #MyCousinVinny twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
All those op-eds fantasizing about what an Elon owned Twitter will be like aren't asking themselves a simple question. If he really wants to buy it, what's with the conditions? As Twitter said, if he's serious, he can complete the purchase before Oct 17th.
Not a sincere offer.
Not a sincere offer.
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