Nick Gerli Profile picture
Oct 8 5 tweets 1 min read
📉Shocking Collapse in Mortgage Applications last week.

Purchase Demand at lowest level in a DECADE. Comparable to lows in 2010 during last Housing Crash.
Big Problem considering that 70-80% of Home Purchases are financed with a Mortgage.

High Rates + Declining Housing Market has Buyers on ice. It's a total Boycott of the Housing Market.

Prices need to come down substantially to entice buyers back in.
To put this decline in Mortgage Demand into better perspective:

Today's Index Level of 174 is 37% below last year. And 50% below the pandemic peak in early 2021.

Suggests that Fall/Winter will be see even more Price Drops.
While Mortgage Rates get all the attention for nuking buyer demand (deservedly so), another factor is creeping in...

Expectation of Declining Prices.

Fannie Mae's Sept Housing Survey showed more people expect Price Declines v Increases. Very Rare.
As the expectation for lower Home Prices becomes entrenched, that reduces buyer demand on its own.

Independent of Mortgage Rates.

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More from @nickgerli1

Oct 5
$80 Trillion - combined value of US Housing + Stock Market

$25 Trillion - GDP

There's a lot more Wealth Destruction to go. 📉 Image
1) What's amazing - is that even with the Stock Crash and start of Housing Correction - Asset Values are still 319% of GDP today.

While that's down from its early 2022 Highs, it's still ABOVE the peak of the 2007 and 2000 Bubbles.

More pain is coming...
2) How much pain?

Well to simply get back to a "normal" level of Asset Prices / GDP, we'd need a further 40% Combined Correction in Housing & Stocks.

But of course... Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 30
Housing Crash by State.

🔴Big Crash (aka Inventory Surge)
🔵No Crash (aka Inventory Down)

Might be time to admit that people have stopped moving to AZ, NV, and TX.

And are moving back to Northeast / Midwest. Image
Everyone is focusing on Mortgage Rates and Recession to explain 2022 Housing Market.

But they're missing the bigger story - a mammoth shift in where people are moving.

No longer is there an influx into "desirable" Sun Belt/Mountain Housing Market.
Check this comparison of NEW JERSEY v ARIZONA to see.

Based on conventional narrative - Arizona's Housing Market should be stronger, right?

WRONG. Inventory in Arizona has now surged above New Jersey. Complete opposite from the pre-pandemic Situation. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 26
🚨The Single Biggest MYTH about the US Housing Market?

That there is a structural "shortage" of Homes.

Quite the opposite, actually. In the last 80 Years the Housing Vacancy Rate has surged, while the number of People / Housing Unit has Plummeted...
The reality is that there was a "temporary shortage" created during the pandemic by a combination of:

Eviction Moratorium
Foreclosure Moratorium
Stimulus Checks
Ultra Low Interest Rates

These government interventions caused the existing population to "consume" more housing.
As a result of this temporary housing shortage, inventory collapsed📉, and Home Prices/Rents surged.📈

Tricking Real Estate Investors / Builders into believing the structural shortage narrative.

But remember - there isn't.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 22
📈Income Needed to afford a House in Austin, TX...

$76,000 - Sept 2020
$160,000 - Sept 2022

Yikes - no wonder the Housing Market is Crashing.😬
Looking at this over time really hammers home the point.

For much of the last 25 Years you needed about $60-70k to buy in Austin.

Then that figure more than doubled in 2 Years. Not sustainable obviously.
How does Phoenix look? Just as bad.

In fact - the Income Needed to afford a House in Phoenix today is 40% higher than at previous Bubble Peak in 2007.

Reminder: Home Prices crashed in Phoenix by 53% from 2007-12.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 19
📉Cities that CRASHED the Hardest during the last Housing Downturn.

Might be time to sell if you own in CA, FL, AZ, or NV.
Your best for understanding the 2022-23 Housing Crash is understanding what happened during the last Crash (lasted roughly 5 Years from 2007-12).

Metros with the biggest price declines were:

1) Expensive
2) Speculative
3) Built Lots of Homes
Applying that model to Housing Markets today in 2022 reveals the Following Metros as having the Biggest Crash Risk Today:

Austin, TX
Phoenix, AZ
Las Vegas, NV
Boise, ID
Tampa, FL
Raleigh, NC
Dallas, TX
Read 6 tweets
Sep 14
😬Big Problems ahead for Real Estate Investors.

The 6-Month US Treasury now yields basically the same as Buying & Renting Out a House in America (aka Cap Rate).

Translation: big Real Estate Investor selloff coming. Especially among Wall Street owners. 📉
In markets like Dallas, Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City, Seattle, and Los Angeles the 6-Month Treasury is already > the Cap Rate.

Meaning there is very little incentive for investors to be in these markets. Especially now that prices are going down.
The Big Money funding Wall Street Real Estate Investors is turning the spigots off.

First sign is reduced investor purchases. Which is already happening.

Next will be margin calls as Banks order Investors to sell properties and get the assets off the books.
Read 6 tweets

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