Nick Gerli Profile picture
CEO of Reventure Consulting and Reventure App.
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May 24 5 tweets 3 min read
The Austin, TX housing downturn keeps getting worse.

Inventory of homes for sale just surged +442% over the last two years. Up to almost 9,000 houses on the market.

That's the highest inventory level on record for April going back 7 years.

Prepare for more price declines in H2 2024.

Values already down close to 20%.

Access home price and inventory data in Austin on Reventure App:…Image 1) Austin's housing market is a cautionary tale about what can happen in "boomtowns".

Everyone moves in. The prices surge. Builders start pulling too many permits.

And then, sooner than you know, the market flips. And inventory gets dumped onto the market as demand and prices drop.
May 21 7 tweets 4 min read
What's happening in Florida's housing market is wild.

You have ZIP codes where inventory has literally increased 1,000% over the last three years.

And is now sitting 2-3x higher than the long-term average.

Suggesting a major market downturn is coming in cities like Cape Coral.

Look out below.

Access data on Reventure App:…Image 1) Interestingly - home prices haven't declined by much yet in Cape Coral. Only dropping by a couple % points from peak, despite this inventory surge.

Leaving the market in a record bubble at a time when supply is gushing onto the market.

Prices are about 25% overvalued in this ZIP code. And have a long way to fall before local demand can step into absorb supply.

Access overvaluation metrics under a premium plan on Reventure App:…Image
May 15 9 tweets 4 min read
Home builder sentiment collapsed in May.

Down 12% month over month. To an index level of 45.

This level of sentiment is well below the long-term norm and suggests sluggish housing market conditions in H2 2024.

Watch out for more aggressive builder price cuts as year goes on to clear excess inventory.Image 1) Builder sentiment is declining because of subdued buyer demand conditions to go along with rising inventory levels.

For example - the supply of completed, unsold homes on builder lots is now at the highest level in 13 years.

Source: US Census Bureau Image
May 2 13 tweets 7 min read
American homebuyers can now expect to pay 41% of their gross income on mortgage costs.

This is the highest rate of mortgage burden since the early 1980s when rates were 18%.

No historical precedent for this lack of affordability lasting.

Note that in mid-2000s bubble the mortgage burden peaked at 39%. Less than it is today. Before collapsing.

What this suggests is that today's historical lack of affordability won't last. Something will eventually give. Lower prices, lower rates, and/or higher incomes.Image 1) Here's the math in the graph above, for those who are curious:

Monthly Payment: $2,754 (inclusive of taxes, insurance)
Annual Payment: $33,048

2024 Median Income: $79,790

=41% mortgage burden ratio.
Apr 29 8 tweets 4 min read
Housing inventory in Nashville, TN has skyrocketed.

Surging by an insane +385% over the last two years. Inventory is now at its highest level in 5 years.

Suggesting a sharp slowdown in the market. Fewer buyers, more sellers.

Nashville could be another market where prices drop in 2024.

Access this graph here:…Image 1) What's interesting is that this inventory surge in Nashville is happening amidst a wave of positive press about how many people are moving to the city.

WSJ just ran a piece about Nashville booming.

But that doesn't seem to be backed up by the data anymore... Image
Apr 26 12 tweets 3 min read
Stock Market as a % of GDP.

And they say it's not a bubble... Image Housing Market as a % of GDP.

Definitely a bubble. Image
Apr 25 8 tweets 3 min read
Housing inventory in Orlando, FL is skyrocketing.

With the active listings on the market up an amazing +362% over the last two years.

This now brings the total inventory in Orlando back to pre-pandemic levels.

Inventory is rising because there are fewer buyers and more sellers. Making it more and more likely that prices will drop in 2024.

Access the graph here:…Image 1) What's alarming about this inventory rise in Orlando is how fast it's occurring.

We basically have back to back years where inventory has doubled.

Suggesting that we're going to see even more listings in future months/years.
Apr 24 16 tweets 6 min read
The US Mortgage Market is crashing. Hard.

With Mortgage Applications to buy a house plummeting -14% from last year.

And now languishing at their lowest level since 1995.

The housing market is frozen. And buyers aren't coming back until prices/rates drop. Image 1) Collapsing mortgage demand is a huge problem for the Housing Market.

Because roughly 70% of home sales in America require a mortgage to complete the transaction (Source: NAR).

So if mortgage demand is at the lowest level in 28 years...well do the math on housing demand overall.
Apr 23 8 tweets 4 min read
The Housing Boom in Florida and Texas is officially over.

with both states ranking in the Top 10 for biggest growth in supply/listings YoY.

Florida at #1. Texas at #6.

All of that inventory is going to turn into lots of price cuts as the housing market turns over into the summer.

Access this data here (click table view):…Image 1) In the case of both Florida and Texas, homes for sale are now back at or above pre-pandemic norms.

An indication of a massive softening in the market, being driven by fewer buyers and more sellers.

There is no inventory shortage here.

Access graphs here (FL):

And here (TX):……Image
Apr 22 13 tweets 4 min read
Discover Financial, the 6th largest credit card issuer in America, just reported a massive spike in defaults.

Their net charge-off rate - an indication of how many accounts are deemed as "uncollectable" - spiked to 5.7% in early 2024.

The highest since the GFC. 📈 Image 1) Shocking data.

I pulled it data from Discover's SEC Filings going back to 2007.

You can find the data on Credit Card Charge-Off Rate in the Financial Earnings Supplement.…
Apr 15 10 tweets 4 min read
Airbnb owners next to Disney are selling.

And selling fast.

With the for sale inventory in the ZIP code south of Disney skyrocketing by 431% the last two years.

Now to the highest level of listings on record. By far.

Watch out for this Airbnb selloff to spread to more markets as the year goes on.

Access the graph here:…Image 1) This Airbnb selloff next to Disney is leading to more and more big price cuts. Like on the listing below.

Condo that's been on the market barely over a month.

And has already reduced the price by $56,000. Image
Apr 13 13 tweets 4 min read
The US Mortgage collapse just got worse.

Demand to buy homes with a mortgage plummeted to -43% below pre-pandemic levels in March 2024.

Finishing with the lowest demand for any March since 1995 (29 years).

In case you thought the US Housing Market was "recovering". Image 1) To analyze this data further: you can see that March 2024 purchase application index of 145 is massively below pre-pandemic norms.

-43% from 2019 levels.

And even down -9% from last year's already low levels.

When will a recovery take place? Image
Apr 8 9 tweets 3 min read
Where Americans moved in 2023.

High Migration States:📈
Texas: +315k
Florida: +373k
North Carolina: +126k

Losing People States: 📉
New York: -143k
California: -187k
Illinois: -43k

Source: US Census Bureau / Reventure App

Access the map here:…
Image 1) Here's a ranked list of the top 10 migration states.

Usual suspects at the top. Florida and Texas dominate.

But how about Ohio sneaking in there at #10... Image
Apr 5 8 tweets 3 min read
Price cuts in Florida just surged up to the highest level in 's data set.

30.1% of all house listings had a price reduction in March 2024.

Indicating substantial "selling pressure".

Don't be surprised if prices in Florida drop substantially in 2024. 📉
Image 1) Now - many of these price cuts are small in nature. And overall price levels in Florida are still very high compared to pre-pandemic norms.

However, what we're watching for here is the trend. And the trend is showing a rapid softening in the market.
Apr 3 7 tweets 4 min read
Housing Markets with the biggest price drops over the last 18 months...


1. Austin, TX: -17%
2. New Orleans, LA: -12%
3. Boise, ID: -11%
4. Lake Charles, LA: - 11%
5. San Francisco, CA: -10%
6. Chico, CA: -8%
7. Provo, UT: -7%
8. Reno, NV: -7%
9. Santa Cruz, CA: -7%
10. Sacramento, CA: -7%

Min Population: 200k.

Access this data on Reventure App:…Image 1) general trend: prices have dropped in the Mountain West, Northern California, Texas, and Louisana (areas in blue on the map below).

Meanwhile - prices still going up in midwest, Northeast, and Florida (although not for long). Image
Mar 28 12 tweets 4 min read
Don't look now - but the number of "quick move-in" homes for sale just hit its highest level in 14 years.

We haven't seen this many unsold homes from builders sitting on the market since at least 2010.

Suggests that more price cuts from builders are coming later this year. Image 1) What's crazy is that builders have already cut prices by nearly 20% from peak.

And that's mostly from quick move-in inventory getting back to normal, and now, above average, levels.

What happens if quick move-in inventory were to spike like it did in 2008? Image
Mar 25 16 tweets 6 min read
New home prices have collapsed by 20% from peak. 📉

With the median sale price of a new house dropping from $497k in mid-2022 to barely over $400k today.

Much faster decline than what occurred in 2008.

In case you still think "there is no housing downturn". Image 1) In the last downturn, new home prices from builders dropped 23% from 2007-2010.

Today we're at a 20% decline in half the time.

Suggesting that we could see an even bigger overall decline in this housing cycle.
Mar 12 12 tweets 4 min read
A record number of Americans are taking hardship withdrawals from their 401k.

The figure has nearly doubled over the last four years.

40% of these hardship withdrawals are to avoid foreclosure.

People are running out of money. Image 1) What's crazy about this is that most hardship withdrawals were $5,000 or less.

Meaning that people/homeowners don't have enough money to pay basic expenses and bills.

And are willing to take penalties and pay taxes on 401k for early withdrawal to cover these expenses. Image
Mar 11 8 tweets 4 min read
We're starting to see lots of price cuts show up on the US Housing Market.

Most notably - all across Florida, which has 7 of the top 10 price cut markets.📉

A high share of price cuts tends to be a leading indicator of broader declines in home values.

So watch out in Florida.Image 1) In the case of a market like Tampa, FL, you can see it just logged its highest price cut rate in six years.

34% of listings in Feb 2024 had a price reduction.

Well above the long-term norm. And almost 6x pandemic low.

Indicating a huge market shift.

Access Graph Here:…Image
Feb 1 18 tweets 6 min read
Mortgage Applications to buy a house cratered in January 2024.

To the lowest level of homebuyer demand in 30 years.

Down -14% YoY. -54% from pandemic peak. And -40% from 2019.

Home prices/mtg rates need to go down a lot to bring buyers back in. Image 1) This data comes from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Who provides weekly updates on how many Americans applied for mortgages.

The fact that we're not seeing any type of meaningful YoY uptick in mortgage apps suggests a weak spring housing market is coming.
Jan 15 14 tweets 5 min read
The Austin, TX Housing Market is turning into a bloodbath.

Home Values already down -16% from their peak in mid-2022. 📉

Warning signal to rest of US Housing Market. Once inventory rises, all bets are off. Image 1) Despite this drop in prices, real estate in Austin is still fairly expensive.

With values remaining 20% "overvalued" compared to the long-term, multi-decade norms.

Suggesting that there will be further price declines coming in Austin. Image