Immigration has dropped to essentially zero.

What will the housing market impact on demand be? 1) According to John Burns, from 2022-24, all of the growth in renter households came from immigration.

While only 5% of buyer demand came from immigration.

We did rate cuts last year.

It didn't work. 1) The myopia among many people in finance and real estate right now regarding round two of rate cuts is shocking.

Once again, people are getting jazzed up to think the Fed will "save the housing market".

Somehow forgetting that we went through this already last year.

North Port, Florida.

Getting closer to fairly valued.

Once the green line crosses below the grey line, it's a "buy signal". 1) A good question is how far undervalued prices could go.

In the last downturn in North Port, values became around 27% undervalued.

Dallas housing supply is through the roof.

Active listings measured almost 32,000 in July 2025.

The average for July going back to 2017 is only 20,000.

60% more inventory than normal. 1) The inventory spike is happening pretty much everywhere in DFW.

All major counties are now above a 50% inventory surplus.

The biggest problem in today's housing market is not mortgage rates.

Rather - it's homeowners clutching onto an unsustainable amount of homeowner equity.

Today, homeowners have over $34 trillion in equity on their houses - more than 2x higher than the 2006 bubble.

It's the biggest homeowner equity bubble ever. And it's keeping hard-working Americans locked out from buying a house (because prices are too high).

Sellers who come to market today are often refusing to cut the price to the market-clearing price, and even de-listing their homes. This is further perpetuating the worst housing affordability crisis we've seen in 40 years.

The solution: home prices need to correct, by around 15-20% on a national basis, to bring the market back into balance with homebuyer incomes and interest rates. This type of correction will not be that damaging to the economy, since most homeowners would still have plenty of equity. (in this scenario, homeowner equity would drop to around $25 trillion - still almost double 2006).

It's important that lenders, realtors, investors, and government officials understand that unsustainable prices and homeowner equity levels are what is creating the worst home sales transaction market in decades.

Not mortgage rates. 1) For perspective, today's homeowner equity levels are north of 115% of GDP, the highest level of all-time.

Indicating that home prices and equity growth have far outstripped the growth of the economy, incomes, and inflation.

It's not sustainable, and needs to correct.

Nashville's housing market was previously one of the biggest boom markets.

Now it has one of the biggest gluts of unsold inventory of any metro.

With nearly 11,000 homes for sale, the highest level in almost 10 years.

Nashville's inventory surplus is now at 62.7% above the long-term average. Indicative of a market that is in correction. 1) Home values in Nashville dropped -0.18% in June 2025 every month.

And the year-over-year value metrics in Nashville are now essentially flat, at +0.1% June 2024-25.

At Reventure, we are forecasting a -7.2% over the next 12 months.

Inventory in Nashville is through the roof.

Some neighborhoods now have 115% more supply than normal.

This excess supply is largely coming from investors selling, combined with a reduction in buyer demand.

Don't be surprised if home values across most of Nashville flip negative over the next 12 months.

Access the inventory map at reventure.app. 1) The supply run-up in some of these ZIP codes is wild.

Pre-pandemic inventory of 100 homes.

Now there's 300 homes.

Home builders have 9.8 months of supply on their lots.

Has only happened 6 other times in U.S. history.

5 times it led to a recession. 1) Long-term median Months of Supply is around 5.8 months.

Meaning today's home building market is 70% more oversupplied than normal.

U.S. homeowners have $34 trillion in equity.

That's almost triple the levels in the 2006 bubble.

As a % of GDP, it's the most housing wealth homeowners in the U.S. have ever had. 1) This record equity is a negative for the U.S. Housing Market.

It means sellers are holding onto an inordinate amount of housing wealth, locking prospective buyers out of the market.

Home prices in the U.S. are 16.5% overvalued in 2025.

This is a higher level of overvaluation than what we saw at the heights of the 2006 bubble.

After that last bubble, prices became undervalued, and the period from 2008-2019 was a great time to buy a house.

However, today the market has become too expensive, with home prices outpacing wage growth.

The result is an overvalued and unaffordable market.

This is the main reason why homebuyer demand is so low in 2025. Fix the overvaluation, fix the homebuyer demand problem. 1) This overvaluation data is based on the relationship of Home Values and Incomes in the U.S. Housing Market.

Home prices during the pandemic went up way faster than incomes, pricing out homebuyers, and resulting in the highest overvaluation we've seen in decades.

Orlando, FL's housing market is correcting fast.

Supply is at a 10-year record, up 142% over the last two years.

Sellers are struggling to sell their homes, and prices are dropping.

Orlando's market is heavily exposed to macroeconomic forces like travel and tourism. And there's currently a -6% YoY decline in traffic at Orlando International Airport.

That decline is now showing up in local economic and housing market weakness.

Home values are already down -2.6% in the last 12 months. And they are still about 15-20% overvalued after that drop. So there's likely more downside coming.

Access the housing market data for Orlando at reventure.app. 1) Overall, there were 14,391 active listings on the Orlando metro housing market in June 2025 according to data from Realtor.com.

This is the highest active listing count since at least 2017, and likely the highest going back to the end of the last crash in 2012.

All 4 of the major counties in the Orlando metro (Orange, Lake, Seminole, and Osceola) are experiencing this inventory spike.

The difference in cost between buying a house and renting has reached the highest level on record.

Today, your monthly payment for buying a house is $2,800/month.

While the typical rent is $2,049.

The resulting $750 premium to buy means that many would-be first-time homebuyers are content to rent and wait out the market.

Which helps explain why the housing market in 2025 has remained sluggish, and why home values are now dropping in most states on a month-over-month basis. 1) A quicker way to understand this reality is by comparing how much the cost to buy has increased v the cost to rent over the last 5 years.

Mortgage Payment: $1,481/month --> $2,801/month (+89%)

Rental Rate: $1,517/month --> $2,049/month (+35%)

So the cost to buy has increased by more than 2x faster than the cost to rent since the pandemic started.

The reason no one is buying houses right now is because U.S. housing market affordability is literally at the worst level in the past 35 years.

Today, an American making median income needs to spend 39.7% to afford the monthly mortgage, tax, and insurance payment.

The long-term norm is 29%.

And during the depths of the last housing crash, it became as cheap as 22%.

For a rebound in the housing market to take place, this Mortgage Payment/Income Ratio needs to get cheaper, probably closer to 30%.

To get there, home values need to drop 15%, and mortgage rates need to drop 1.5%. 1) I don't think people realize just how far off we are from buyers returning to the market.

It's not a matter of a rate cut or two.

It's a matter of home values correcting significantly, and some type of mega Fed rate cut and/or recession bringing Mortgage Rates into low 5% range.

Home builder inventory over the last 40 years.

Only other times it was this high: 2022, 2008, 1991.

All are either recessionary scenarios or near recessions.

This is ultimately good news for homebuyers. It means cheaper prices are around the corner. But potentially bad news for builders, and those who bought near the peak of the bubble.

There could also be an economic spillover in terms of construction job losses and downturns in regional economies most exposed to home building. 1) And this is more a story about the South in the U.S. than anywhere else in the U.S.

In the South, there are now 311,000 new builder homes for sale.

That's the highest level on record, even eclipsing the heights of the 2006-07 bubble.

No one is buying new homes that are under construction or permitted.

Months of supply for both is sitting between 15-20 months, which is basically the highest on record.

Meanwhile - completed spec houses have a decent sales pace of 3.6 months.

Meaning extremely weak demand in the future for builders. Any short-term success on sales is simply being driven by having lots of completed inventory and giving mortgage rates buy downs/cutting prices on completed homes.

The long-term outlook, measured by sales pace for Under Construction/Permitted, says demand is fundamentally weak.

And that the Housing market will continue to get cheaper. (which is good news for buyers) 1) Consider that the Months of Supply for homes Permitted but not Started is literally the highest level on record.

Meaning basically no one right now is willing to enter into a sales contract for a home to be built.

That says a lot about the current state of demand.

The housing downturn is broadening.

With over 60% of U.S. counties experiencing monthly home value declines in May 2025.

That's one of the highest percentages going back almost 3 decades.

The only other two times in the last three decades when this many counties reported a monthly drop, according to Zillow, were 2022 and 2008-2012. 1) This indicates that the U.S. housing correction is no longer just a Texas and Florida downturn.

In fact, over 30 states showed a monthly contraction in May 2025 according to the Zillow data.

The housing market is definitely slowing.

Especially condos.

With the condo months of supply on the market hitting 6.7 months in May 2025.

Highest level since the 2006-12 downturn.

Single-family supply is now up to 4.4 months. 1) It wouldn't shock me if condo inventory keeps climbing to levels not seen since the last housing bust in 2008-09.

Single-family will also likely keep increasing in future months.

Don't be surprised if condos are at 8+ months of supply by year end, while single-family is above 5.

The cost of buying a house with a mortgage has exploded.

Back in 1955, it cost $112/month to take out a mortgage to buy a house.

In 2025, it costs $2,800/month. That's an astounding 2,300% increase over 70 years.

In the last five years alone, mortgage costs have nearly doubled.

These costs have surged faster than people's incomes, creating a massive housing affordability crisis.

The question is: what happens next?

Following the 2000s housing bubble, there was a crash, and mortgage costs dropped 40% in half a decade.

But following the 1970s housing inflation, there was no crash. Instead, home-buying costs stabilized for two decades, allowing incomes to catch up.

I see similarities in 2025 to both previous eras, as we are in a massive home price bubble today (similar to the mid-2000s) and have also experienced rampant inflation over the last several years (similar to the 1970s).

The net result is that no one can afford homes right now. And the only cure for this is a combination of cheaper prices, lower mortgage rates, and higher incomes.

And it might take years to get there. 1) One thing is for sure: the current trajectory of housing costs is not sustainable.

Homebuyers are priced out of the market, and demand has collapsed as a result.

Many people in real estate keep tricking themselves into thinking a rebound is around the corner.

But there will be no rebound so long as prices remain high.

The U.S. housing market just broke 1,000,000 listings.

Excess inventory is piling up.

Relative to buyer demand, we now have the highest inventory in close to a decade.

Which is causing home prices to drop in over half the U.S. 1) This was the highest active listing count for May since 2019, according to data.

This is important because it signals that sellers are now facing stiff competition to sell their homes.

A marked reversal from the pandemic boom, and a signal that gains in affordability are coming for buyers.Realtor.com

Home values declined in over 60% of US counties in April 2025.

The only other two times we saw this breadth of home value declines was the 2008 crash and the 2022 mortgage rate spike.

More than half the country is now officially in MoM declines. Indicating that the housing downturn is spreading.

We'll have to see if this lasts into the future, and if it turns into a sustained correction like 2008 or is a blip like 2022. But given the trajectory of listings and inventory, it seems like more value declines are coming. 1) We have to be careful not to overanalyze one month of data. However, to see 60%+ of US counties recording a decline on Zillow's home value index suggests something big could be happening.

Florida investor bought for $550k in 2022.

Just sold it for $391k.

28% loss in 3 years.

Market turning down fast. 1) What's interesting about this house is that the investor, a Blackstone-owned entity, purchased it for $550k in April 2022.

And then turned around and tried to sell it two years later. Listing for $529k in April 2024.

The house sat on the market for a year, and they incrementally lowered the price until finally it sold.