Florida's population losses are compounding.

Miami had the 4th-largest population loss among U.S. metros in Q1 2026.

Orlando had the 6th biggest.

And Tampa lost more people than Chicago.

This data comes from Bank of America's internal account data and is a shocking revelation for anyone who thinks Florida's housing market is recovering.

People continue to leave Florida due to still high prices, soaring property taxes, and expensive insurance.

So much so that a state that was built on massive levels of in-migration of Americans is now losing people in its three biggest metro areas.

As a result, don't be surprised if Florida's housing market continues to correct until things become cheap enough to keep people from leaving.

Track migration by county at reventure.app/mobile. 1) Some corners of the real estate industry are talking about a potential "recovery" in Florida's housing market in 2026.

However, that doesn't seem likely if the state's three biggest metro areas are all losing people net on migration.

The spring 2026 housing market is off to a rough start.

In May, 4.17 million existing sales took place according to NAR.

That's about 20% below the 30-year average, and near the record-low levels of the last four years.

In fact, sales this May were roughly in line with the volume we saw in 2008, 2009, and 2011, during the worst housing market downturn in history.

Some in real estate are getting excited about a supposed recovery in sales (+3% YoY). However, when you look at the long-term graph, you can see a real recovery is a long way off.

Prices need to drop meaningfully before buyers will come back in meaningfully.

To sales by ZIP code in your area at reventure.app/mobile. 1) I think it's important to pay attention to the long-term trends with these sales reports, because certain corners of the real estate industry are trying to turn a 3% MoM or YoY gain into a sign of meaningful recovery in the market.

However, there is no recovery when one considers the long-term data.

One of America's biggest housing crashes is now bottoming out.

Austin, TX has dropped so much that the market is undervalued.

The market has corrected already by 26%, and incomes keep rising, meaning the fundamentals now support today's price levels.

At the peak of the bubble, Reventure's valuation metric had Austin at 49% overvalued (April 2022).

Now it's 0.4% undervalued.

You can actually still get some good deals in Austin right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if values keep dropping for another 6-12 months as the inventory overhang burns off.

Download the app to see Overvaluation % by ZIP: reventure.app/mobile 1) The situation in Austin is a clear case of a classic "boom-bust" real estate cycle.

Values and inbound migration spiked during the pandemic; builders and apartment developers permitted a huge pipeline of units in response, and today a lower demand level is intersecting with that excess supply.

Causing values to drop.

Lots of people are speculating about what the higher yields and upward inflation pressure means for real estate.

The answer will come down to wage growth.

In a true "inflationary" scenario, wage growth will take off alongside inflation, and there will be asset-level appreciation across real estate as a result.

However, in a transitory inflation scenario, wage growth does not take off with inflation, and the higher yields and inflation spike eventually dissipate.

And could even lead to deflation after the fact.

Right now, wage growth is not showing any real signs of moving upward, which makes this look different than the 2021/22 inflation spike, as well as the one that occurred in the 1970s.

My gut instinct is that the higher yields and inflation spike will hit a ceiling with wage growth and will come back down.

Simply put, there isn't much "room" for consumers to absorb the higher costs. 1) And this is very important to understand for the housing market, because in real estate, there are only two types of inflation that actually matter:

-wage inflation
-rent inflation

These two types of inflation feed directly into home prices.

Seattle's housing market is going through a historic inventory shock.

There are now 8,630 listings across the Seattle metro as of Apr 2026.

In a normal April, there are only 4,600 listings.

Meaning inventory today is 88% above normal.

This is happening due to layoffs, a historic lack of affordability, and increased outbound migration.

Ultimately, good news for local Seattle buyers. For the first time in a decade, you have control over this market.

Expect prices to fall in the next year, potentially by a lot in certain ZIP codes.

Access the data on mobile: reventure.app/mobile 1) While Seattle's days on market and months of supply are still tighter than most other markets, what matters most here is how Seattle's market is trending compared to its own history.

And as a result of this inventory spike, values are already dropping.

Down -1.7% YoY.

Some crazy stuff is going on in Nashville's housing market.

Opendoor, America's largest homebuyer, just purchased this house for $462K in March.

But then immediately relisted and cut the price to $430k.

a $32,000 loss on price in a matter of weeks.

On top of that, the appraised value for this house is $548,000.

Meaning today's list price is 22% below 2025 appraisal.

Suggesting major downward pressure on values in Nashville.

(that, or both Opendoor and the Nashville tax appraiser don't know what they're doing). 1) Opendoor's models can sometimes produce strange results, however I've never seen them take a $32,000 loss in a month.

Even down in Florida last year, when things were very crazy in terms of declining prices, I never witnessed anything like this.

Mortgage applications to buy a house fell again.

They're back down to an index level of 159, which is more than 50% below the pandemic peak in early 2021.

Not only that - they're now declining year-over-year, reversing a slight positive trend that began taking place in early 2025.

The figures are so bad that Mortgage Apps are now nearly 40% below pre-pandemic levels.

As a result, I wouldn't be surprised if April & May have the lowest sales figures we've ever seen for those months (excl the initial pandemic lockdowns).

Sellers must adapt and understand that if they don't cut the price now, their house will sit. For a long time.

To see the areas with the biggest price cuts, download Reventure and search your city: reventure.app/mobile 1) This Mortgage Application Purchase data, sourced from the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association), is a real-time indicator of buyer demand.

It updates every week, and suggests where closed sales could be heading in the next several months.

A slowdown today, along with continued weakness, suggests a rough spring selling season ahead.

The U.S. Housing Market is in a full-fledged depression.

Existing sales in March just hit their 2nd lowest level ever for the month, behind only 2009.

Not only that - sales volumes are down 25% from pre-pandemic norms and continue to drop YoY.

Why is this happening? Simple: sky-high prices.

Even though values are starting to drop in many markets, overall price levels remain disconnected from what buyers can pay.

So they're not buying. A concerning signal for the Spring/Summer housing market. Sellers better get ready to cut the price.

To track sales for your city, download Reventure and hit Home Sales Surplus/Deficit: reventure.app/mobile 1) A lot of people seem to think the housing market is "doing just fine".

But that couldn't be further from the truth.

We've never seen sales activity this low, for this extended period a time.

It's even worse than the demand in the post-2008 crash.

The housing market has split into two.

In South and West states, the housing shortage is over. (inventory up to 741k listings as of March 2026, above 2019 levels).

Prices are dropping and buyers have leverage in TX, FL, GA, TN, CO, AZ, and WA.

But in the Northeast/Midwest, it's a different story.

Inventory has plummeted 45%, and there are only 215k listings compared to 381k pre-pandemic.

Meaning there's still a shortage (and even bidding wars).

To understand the dynamics in your market, search at reventure.app/mobile. 1) I still people floating around this idea of a "national housing shortage", and that couldn't be further from the truth at this point.

In the South and West, the shortage is over.

Southern inventory is up 2% from March 2019 levels, West is flat.

While sales in these markets are down significantly.

With each passing day, the mortgage rate lock-in effect fades.

Nearly 22% of mortgage holders now have a rate above 6%. Which is more than the share with a rate below 3%.

Ultra-low-rate owners are slowly getting replaced with 6%+ owners.

Meaning downward pressure on prices is coming. 1) The reason is very simple.

If an owner has an ultra-low rate and they go to sell their house in this down market, they are highly likely to pull the listing or eventually decide to rent their home out instead.

Or they might never decide to sell.

Because their payment is so low that the mortgage itself is worth more to them than the house.

Rental market deflation is spreading across the U.S.

Austin is down 22% from peak.
Fort Myers is down 19%
Denver is -13%
Atlanta is -11%
Nashville is -11%
Dallas is -11%

Landlords are doing big rent cuts across the Sun Belt and West.

In some cases, they're even offering 3 months free rent (20-25% net rent cuts).

This is great news for renters and homebuyers. 1) This data is sourced from Apartmentlist's median rent index, and proves how much of the U.S. Housing Market is in a deflationary environment in 2026.

The more that apartment rents drop, the more downward pressure there will also be on home prices.

Ultimately providing much-needed affordability relief to Americans who live in the South and West.

Las Vegas apartment vacancies are spiking.

And landlords are not happy.

7.6% of Vegas apartments are now sitting vacant, the highest level in nearly 10 years.

(Triple the pandemic low of 2.4%).

4 years ago, rents were soaring, and there was no availability.

Now they're cutting rents aggressively and giving concessions just to get tenants through the door.

A potentially ominous sign for Vegas' overall housing market in 2026. 1) I like looking at a local area's rental market as an additional bellwether of where things are heading.

If vacancies are rising, and rents are getting cut, it's a suggestion that the broader housing market is oversupplied.

And that general housing deflation could be on the way (as if the case in Las Vegas).

Who would buy a house in this environment?

Corporate CEOs openly stating that white-collar jobs won't be necessary, and others acting on it with 40% layoffs.

I'm talking to people everyday who have good jobs, but are skeptical that their job will exist in 5 years.

And for good reason. Jack Dorsey is saying the quiet part out loud and going on record stating that he thinks "a majority of companies" will follow suit in the next year.

That's wild.

Block's stock jumped over 20% in response, indicating that Wall Street traders loved it.

If this becomes a "provable" model for success, other companies will follow suit.

Who would want buy a house right now? 1) For those that don't know - Block, formerly Square, is a payment processing company founded by Jack Dorsey, who also co-founded Twitter.

They do over $24 billion in revenue per year.

With over $3 billion in EBITDA. They're profitable, and their profit grew 20% YoY prior to these job cuts.

Yet they just cut 40% of their workforce (4,000) people due to "AI" and their CEO is going on record saying he thinks a lot of other companies will follow suit.

You can't make it up.

Builder had house listed for $469k in summer.

Then listed for rent at $2.9k. then cut rent to $2.4k.

Then sold it to rent-to-own company, who is now selling a 50% ownership share for $245,000.

Based on a "retail price of $490,000".

When you see stuff like this, you know something bad is about to happen in the housing market. 1) Interestingly, I toured this site last weekend when I was filming for my YouTube Channel.

There are dozens of homes recently completed, sitting empty.

Some with sold signs, others listed as available.

What's going on in Colorado?

The state, normally a migration powerhouse, has fallen off a cliff the last four years.

And in 2025, over 12,000 Americans left Colorado.

The biggest outmigration in the state's history according to US Census Bureau Population Estimates.

Normally, over the last 35 years, Colorado adds about 30,000 people per year. So a -12,000 reading on domestic migration is shocking.

Higher housing costs, return to office mandates, and increases in crime are causing the exodus. 1) Colorado now relies almost exclusively on international migration to drive the bus on remaining population growth.

Although international migration dropped heavily in 2025 as well, and could go even lower in 2026 based on current immigration policies.

Austin TX - almost undervalued.

Prices have dropped so much that Austin's housing market is now only 3% overvalued in early 2026.

This is how housing crashes can be a good thing. Prices are down nearly 25% from peak and wages have kept rising, and buyers in Austin now have significantly more affordability.

Reventure will be giving a "buy signal" on Austin once it crosses into undervalued territory.

That won't mean prices will immediately stop dropping.

But it will mean the worst is over.

And that buyers/investors can get in at a decent price point in a market that is still top of the table in organic demographic growth. 1) Here's the math on the graph from above:

Values in Austin are down roughly 15% from Dec 2021 to Dec 2025 (and they're down by 24% from May 2022 to today).

In the same span, incomes have risen by 17%.

That combination, combined with a rising base effect, has dropped Austin's overvaluation rate from 39% to 3% in the last four years.

Dec 2025 was the worst December on record for homebuyer demand.

NAR's pending sale index fell to 71.8.

Down 30% from pre-pandemic norms on contract signings. (and still dropping from last year's already historically low levels).

Indicating 2026 is going to get off to a rough start on closings and buyer interest.

The only way out is lower prices. 1) I'd like to remind everyone that we've now had 7 rate cuts since August 2024.

Back then the Fed Funds was at 5.25-5.50%.

Now it's at 3.50-3.75%.

And buyer demand is still dropping.

Florida condo crash happening in real-time.

Seller cut price to $256k.

Back in 2022, it was valued at over $1 million.

75% haircut in 3 years. And 50% over the last 10 years.

This condo building was built in the 1970s, and apparently has huge deferred maintenance and repairs. So existing condo owners / new buyers are getting stuck with the bill.

($326k special assessment on this unit, also needs renovation. So the buyer's all-in cost is probably closer to $700k).

In this ZIP code, condo values have dropped about 10% in aggregate the last 3 years. But clearly some units, in older buildings with huge assessments, are getting hit much worse than market average. 1) condos are an interesting asset class, because if you are in the wrong building, at the wrong time, the declines in value can be immense.

This condo would have likely sold for close to $900k-1 million in 2021/22.

Now its listed for $256k.

Multifamily vacancy rates are skyrocketing in Sun Belt Markets.

Apartmentlist is reporting we're now at the highest multifamily vacancy since 2017. And rent cuts are getting deep.

Austin is #1, at -21%.
Fort Myers, CoSprings, Phoenix, North Port, Raleigh, San Antonio, Atlanta, Denver, Lakeland, and Orlando are all at -10% or bigger.

Now - many of these markets had big rental rate run-ups after the pandemic, so rents can still appear expensive to some renters.

But they're officially getting more affordable, and rents will likely drop further in 2026 given the big surge in vacancies over the last couple of years. 1) A different way to view this data is by comparison today's rents to pre-pandemic.

San Francisco rents are up YoY, but basically flat from pre-pandemic, due to how much they dropped in 2020-21.

Austin rents are now also basically flat with pre-pandemic, up only 2.2%, due to how much they have dropped.

A host of other markets - San Antonio, Denver, San Jose, New Orleans, Minneapolis, CoSprings, and Houston - has rents up 10% from pre-pandemic.

Something big just happened in the U.S. Housing Market.

As of the end of 2025, there are now more 6%+ rate mortgage holders than sub-3%.

Meaning that the dreaded Mortgage Rate "Lock-In" Effect is fading.

Since more existing owners have a higher rate, that means more have a payment and rate closer to "market", which means there will be more incentive to sell - which is actually good news.

The 6%+ mortgage share is now 21.2%, the highest level since 2015, and nearly triple the pandemic low.

This is happening because even in today's depressed sales and refinance environment, each year about 5-6 million Americans take out a new mortgage, now at 6%+ rates.

Expect more upward pressure on new listings and inventory in future years as a result. 1) The one thing keeping inventory constrained, even in the midst of its rebound from the pandemic, has been sellers delisting homes.

And other sellers electing not to list, because they want to keep their low rate.

Now that this mortgage lock-in effect is gradually fading away, it will structurally unlock more supply, and should push inventory up further in 2026 and beyond.

Austin TX is now back to pre-pandemic apartment rents.

Down 21% from peak in summer of 2022.

$1,636/month --> $1,288/month

(I'm now even seeing 2BRs in some apartments at sub-$1,000)

This rental correction is due to a sharp drop in migration/demand, combined with a surge of new apartment development.

At this point, Austin has its cheapest rents on record relative to income. 1) Here's an example of what's out there now.

2BRs going for $950.

This is a complex which is off I-35. A 9-minute drive to the Domain according to Google Maps.

$470 per bedroom.