Housing inventory in Palm Beach, FL is skyrocketing. 1) Housing supply in Palm Beach County is up to 12,722 active listings in November 2024.

That's up 47% YoY. And is now near the highest level going back 7 years.

Suggesting a slowdown in the market is occurring. There's been a big drop in buyer demand, which is causing more listings to linger on the market.

Access the data here: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=…

Days on Market in Florida.

Nov 2023: 56 days
Nov 2024: 78 days

+39% increase YoY. Highest level since 2017. 1) DOM is spiking all across Florida. With the hardest hit metros being:

Tampa: +59% YoY
North Port/Sarasota: +50%
Deltona: +45%
Palm Beach: +42%
Broward: +40%

Housing inventory in the South is now officially back to pre-pandemic norms.

Active listings in the 16 southern states hit 509,000 in Nov 2024. In Nov 2019 it was 515,000 listings.

States like Tennessee, Texas, and Florida are now well above pre-pandemic inventory and are leading the charge.

It could be argued that there is no longer a housing shortage in the South. 1) Here's the state-by-state breakdown.

Tennesse: +19.7% v 2019
Texas: +17.4%
Florida: +15.0%

It's a bit top-heavy. Those 3 states are leading the charge on inventory growth in the region.

Meanwhile - housing inventory in Virginia and Maryland is still down 40% from pre-pandemic.

Home builders now have the 2nd highest level of homes for sale on record.

Mid-2000s housing bubble was only time inventory was higher.

We're now within 19% of that peak. 1) Source of this data is US Census Bureau.

I took the number of homes either completed or under construction only, as they represent a better representation of active inventory.

Builder cycle times are now about 4-5 months for turning an under-construction house into a completed one.

Apartment rents are dropping across Florida.

With deep rent cuts hitting almost every major FL market.

The biggest is Fort Myers. Where rents are down 13% from Nov 2022. Other hard-hit areas include Naples, North Port/Sarasota, and Jacksonville.

Rents are now dropping across Florida due to an oversupply of apartment construction.

Don't be surprised if we see a big investor selloff in Florida in 2025 due to these declining rents.

Source: Apartmentlist rental data 1) Declining rents is very problematic for landlords in Florida, because many bought into the market during the peak of the bubble in 2021-2022. And expected rents to keep growing.

Some investors are already dumping properties in Florida as a result of these declining rents.

Pretty crazy stat.

82% of Americans say it's a bad time to buy a house in late 2024.

That's the most pessimistic homebuyers have ever been about the housing market.

Helps explain why homebuyer demand is so low. 1) What's amazing about these sentiment readings is that they are even worse than the early 1980s. When mortgage rates were 18%.

Back then, it was a peak of 79% who said bad time to buy.

We reached a peak of 88% in this cycle. And are currently at 82%.

Mortgage demand is down 50% from the same week in 2019.

No post-election bounce.

Sellers better start cutting prices or else it's going to be a long winter. 1) To put things in perspective: the number of mortgage purchase applications for the week ending November 20th was:

49.7% below the same week in 2019
55.2% below 2020
51.9% below 2021
22.0% below 2022
1.7% below 2023

The Austin, TX rental market is collapsing before our eyes.

With the median apartment rent dropping 15% over the last 2+ years.

The vacancies have skyrocketed. Rental concessions are everywhere.

Rents are now only 9.8% higher than pre-pandemic. Meaning that many Austin landlords are losing money, as property taxes, insurance, and interest costs are way higher.

(This is a harsh lesson on the boom/bust cycle in real estate for many developers and investors who bought into Austin during the boom. Read more below to see how this happened.) 1) Austin's rental market is being dragged down by dueling forces right now: reduced demand combined with a deluge of new supply.

At the peak in 2022, apartment developers in Austin pulled permits for over 25,000 multifamily units in a year.

And now those permits are turning into completed units and sitting vacant, forcing landlords to do big rent reductions.

Rents dropping hard north of Austin.

September 2022: $2,419/month
November 2024: $1,969/month

19% cut in two years. Owner is Tricon Residential, who is owned by Blackstone.

How far will these rents drop? And at what point does Blackstone liquidate due to negative cash flow? 1) Digging into the proforma on this rental listing, it doesn't look good.

At current asking rent of $1,969 month, Tricon will net $23,628 in gross rent.

After deducting expenses, including a massive $6,880 annual tax bill, they only net $10,163 in income.

Pretty concerning how low homebuyer demand is right now.

Mortgage apps to buy a house are down 45% from pre-pandemic levels.

Languishing at lowest level in 30 years.

And now mortgage rates are spiking again. 1) On the table below, you can see the break out of the most recent week in mtg demand from previous 5 years.

Optimistically - mortgage apps are up 1.8% from the same week in 2023. But that's where the optimism ends.

Down 19% from 2022. 52% from 2021. 56% from 2020. And 46% from 2019.

Texas housing supply has spiked to highest level since at least 2017.

Active listings are up 25% YoY, and a massive 263% from the pandemic low.

Texas is no longer in an inventory shortage. And is now over-supplied.

Cities in Texas with the most excess supply:

Austin: 42% inventory surplus
Dallas: 39% surplus
San Antonio: 38% surplus 1) The reason that listings are spiking in Texas is because home builders and investors are beginning to liquidate out of this market.

Investors are having difficulty earning cash flow due to high prop taxes and stagnating rents.

Builders are needing to do big mark downs to sell houses, which is hurting the resale market.

The biggest decline in home value from 2022 peak is in Manhattan.

Values in New York County have dropped by 21% from their mid-2022 levels.

To a typical price of $1.1 Million. Still very expensive. But a huge drop nonetheless.

Source: Zillow Value Index / Reventure App 1) Home values in Manhattan are actually back down to their 2013 levels in nominal terms.

And are back down to their mid-2000s levels in inflation-adjusted terms.

Mortgage rates spike back to 6.8%.

The disconnect between mortgage rates and real estate investor returns has never been greater.

Expect institutional investors to continue selling houses, and for inventory to keep increasing in the South especially. 1) The principal problem for real estate right now is that it's not possible to make money buying properties for cash flow at current interest rates.

Most investment properties only produce a 4-5% cap rate an unlevered basis.

And as soon as you layer debt on top of that, the properties lost money.

Nashville's housing inventory just spiked to highest level since 2017.

8,900 active listings.

Up 30% from last year and now suggesting a housing market that is over-supplied.

Nashville is another Sun Belt market looking likely for price declines in late 2024 and into 2025.

View the data here: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=… 1) Nashville's a sneaky market, because many people still think of it as "booming".

But the boom stopped about 12-18 months ago.

Rents are dropping, there's a huge pipeline of new construction of apartments, and now for sale inventory has spiked.

Housing inventory is beginning to surge across much of America's Housing Market in late 2024.

Particularly in states like Arizona, California, Florida, and Georgia - where listings have grown by over 40% YoY.

As inventory continues to grow, sellers will likely cut prices by more.

Note: inventory still very low in much of Northeast and Midwest.

Access the map here: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=… 1) You can see the top 10 states with the highest inventory growth on this table.

Funny enough, Vermont snuck in there at #1. With 61% growth.

But after that it's a who's who of pandemic boom states. Florida, Georgia, Washington, Arizona, Tennessee.

Many of these areas are experiencing a slowdown of people moving in, which is leading to a rise in supply.

We're currently in the midst of the WORST September for mortgage purchase applications since 1994.

Literally - lowest level of buyer demand in 30 years.

Fed rate cuts not having the stimulative impact on the housing market that many hoped for.

Note: mortgage apps to buy are currently 44% below pre-pandemic levels. 1) What's alarming to me is how the big news sources are currently reporting on the mortgage market.

I keep seeing articles from @YahooFinance , @Bloomberg , and others attempting to spin a narrative that demand is "surging".

But clearly - this is not at all the case.

A problem is developing in the Housing Market:

Homebuyers are not responding to lower mortgage rates.❌

Mortgage apps (to purchase) still down 57% from pandemic peak. And 43% from pre-pandemic levels.

You can see clearly on the chart below that applications are not following the inverse of Mortgage Rates up.

(thread) 1) This has caught a lot of people in housing market by surprise.

Many expected that as soon as rates dropped - buyers would flood back in.

But that's clearly not happening.

Investor horror story in Florida.

Bought this house in 2023 for $325,000.

Thought they could rent it out for $3,800/month.

Have since cut rent to $2,500/month. Still sitting vacant.

If they do rent it, they will be losing $8,300 annually after paying their mortgage.

Good warning of what can happen to real estate investors who buy in wrong market, at wrong time. 1) I'm seeing this more and more in Florida.

Investors who bought near the peak in 2022-2023 at sky-high valuations.

Who are now being forced to cut the rent because the rental market here has declined.

It's why many investors are now beginning to sell.

Big boy price cut in Florida.

Original List: $525,000
Current Price: $295,000

42% reduction.

Back to 2015 Zestimate levels.

Watch out as these listings make their way into comps as year goes on. Especially in markets with bloated inventory levels... 1) One of the reasons the seller on this listing had to cut so much is because of massive oversupply in the market.

Inventory in Punta Gorda is up almost 800% from pandemic low in this ZIP code.

And is double pre-pandemic levels.

Thus: you need to cut massively to sell.

Access the inventory data on Reventure App:map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=…

Buying a rental property in America is no longer profitable.

Because the current mortgage rate (6.1%) is significantly higher than the profit/cap rate (4.4%) of rentals.

This means that any investor who uses debt to finance their purchase is likely losing money on cash flow from Day 1.

Note how from 2012-2022, the opposite was true. Cap Rates were higher than mortgage interest. Which is why so many people piled into single-family rentals.

No longer the case. 1) To get a sense of just how dire this situation is for investors, take a look at this rental listing in Florida.

It's actually owned by Invitation Homes, the biggest landlord in America.

They have it listed for rent for $2,299/month.

Blackstone taking a $75,000 loss on a house they bought in 2022.

Original purchase: $490k
Current List Price: $415k

15% haircut in two years. Probably not a good sign for home values in Florida. 1) The way we know this is Blackstone: the entity that owns the house is SFR Acquisitions 2, LLC.

This is an entity whose mailing address coincides with Home Partners of America.

A single-family rental company Blackstone bought in 2021.