Las Vegas apartment vacancies are spiking.

And landlords are not happy.

7.6% of Vegas apartments are now sitting vacant, the highest level in nearly 10 years.

(Triple the pandemic low of 2.4%).

4 years ago, rents were soaring, and there was no availability.

Now they're cutting rents aggressively and giving concessions just to get tenants through the door.

A potentially ominous sign for Vegas' overall housing market in 2026. 1) I like looking at a local area's rental market as an additional bellwether of where things are heading.

If vacancies are rising, and rents are getting cut, it's a suggestion that the broader housing market is oversupplied.

And that general housing deflation could be on the way (as if the case in Las Vegas).

Who would buy a house in this environment?

Corporate CEOs openly stating that white-collar jobs won't be necessary, and others acting on it with 40% layoffs.

I'm talking to people everyday who have good jobs, but are skeptical that their job will exist in 5 years.

And for good reason. Jack Dorsey is saying the quiet part out loud and going on record stating that he thinks "a majority of companies" will follow suit in the next year.

That's wild.

Block's stock jumped over 20% in response, indicating that Wall Street traders loved it.

If this becomes a "provable" model for success, other companies will follow suit.

Who would want buy a house right now? 1) For those that don't know - Block, formerly Square, is a payment processing company founded by Jack Dorsey, who also co-founded Twitter.

They do over $24 billion in revenue per year.

With over $3 billion in EBITDA. They're profitable, and their profit grew 20% YoY prior to these job cuts.

Yet they just cut 40% of their workforce (4,000) people due to "AI" and their CEO is going on record saying he thinks a lot of other companies will follow suit.

You can't make it up.

Builder had house listed for $469k in summer.

Then listed for rent at $2.9k. then cut rent to $2.4k.

Then sold it to rent-to-own company, who is now selling a 50% ownership share for $245,000.

Based on a "retail price of $490,000".

When you see stuff like this, you know something bad is about to happen in the housing market. 1) Interestingly, I toured this site last weekend when I was filming for my YouTube Channel.

There are dozens of homes recently completed, sitting empty.

Some with sold signs, others listed as available.

What's going on in Colorado?

The state, normally a migration powerhouse, has fallen off a cliff the last four years.

And in 2025, over 12,000 Americans left Colorado.

The biggest outmigration in the state's history according to US Census Bureau Population Estimates.

Normally, over the last 35 years, Colorado adds about 30,000 people per year. So a -12,000 reading on domestic migration is shocking.

Higher housing costs, return to office mandates, and increases in crime are causing the exodus. 1) Colorado now relies almost exclusively on international migration to drive the bus on remaining population growth.

Although international migration dropped heavily in 2025 as well, and could go even lower in 2026 based on current immigration policies.

Austin TX - almost undervalued.

Prices have dropped so much that Austin's housing market is now only 3% overvalued in early 2026.

This is how housing crashes can be a good thing. Prices are down nearly 25% from peak and wages have kept rising, and buyers in Austin now have significantly more affordability.

Reventure will be giving a "buy signal" on Austin once it crosses into undervalued territory.

That won't mean prices will immediately stop dropping.

But it will mean the worst is over.

And that buyers/investors can get in at a decent price point in a market that is still top of the table in organic demographic growth. 1) Here's the math on the graph from above:

Values in Austin are down roughly 15% from Dec 2021 to Dec 2025 (and they're down by 24% from May 2022 to today).

In the same span, incomes have risen by 17%.

That combination, combined with a rising base effect, has dropped Austin's overvaluation rate from 39% to 3% in the last four years.

Dec 2025 was the worst December on record for homebuyer demand.

NAR's pending sale index fell to 71.8.

Down 30% from pre-pandemic norms on contract signings. (and still dropping from last year's already historically low levels).

Indicating 2026 is going to get off to a rough start on closings and buyer interest.

The only way out is lower prices. 1) I'd like to remind everyone that we've now had 7 rate cuts since August 2024.

Back then the Fed Funds was at 5.25-5.50%.

Now it's at 3.50-3.75%.

And buyer demand is still dropping.

Florida condo crash happening in real-time.

Seller cut price to $256k.

Back in 2022, it was valued at over $1 million.

75% haircut in 3 years. And 50% over the last 10 years.

This condo building was built in the 1970s, and apparently has huge deferred maintenance and repairs. So existing condo owners / new buyers are getting stuck with the bill.

($326k special assessment on this unit, also needs renovation. So the buyer's all-in cost is probably closer to $700k).

In this ZIP code, condo values have dropped about 10% in aggregate the last 3 years. But clearly some units, in older buildings with huge assessments, are getting hit much worse than market average. 1) condos are an interesting asset class, because if you are in the wrong building, at the wrong time, the declines in value can be immense.

This condo would have likely sold for close to $900k-1 million in 2021/22.

Now its listed for $256k.

Multifamily vacancy rates are skyrocketing in Sun Belt Markets.

Apartmentlist is reporting we're now at the highest multifamily vacancy since 2017. And rent cuts are getting deep.

Austin is #1, at -21%.
Fort Myers, CoSprings, Phoenix, North Port, Raleigh, San Antonio, Atlanta, Denver, Lakeland, and Orlando are all at -10% or bigger.

Now - many of these markets had big rental rate run-ups after the pandemic, so rents can still appear expensive to some renters.

But they're officially getting more affordable, and rents will likely drop further in 2026 given the big surge in vacancies over the last couple of years. 1) A different way to view this data is by comparison today's rents to pre-pandemic.

San Francisco rents are up YoY, but basically flat from pre-pandemic, due to how much they dropped in 2020-21.

Austin rents are now also basically flat with pre-pandemic, up only 2.2%, due to how much they have dropped.

A host of other markets - San Antonio, Denver, San Jose, New Orleans, Minneapolis, CoSprings, and Houston - has rents up 10% from pre-pandemic.

Something big just happened in the U.S. Housing Market.

As of the end of 2025, there are now more 6%+ rate mortgage holders than sub-3%.

Meaning that the dreaded Mortgage Rate "Lock-In" Effect is fading.

Since more existing owners have a higher rate, that means more have a payment and rate closer to "market", which means there will be more incentive to sell - which is actually good news.

The 6%+ mortgage share is now 21.2%, the highest level since 2015, and nearly triple the pandemic low.

This is happening because even in today's depressed sales and refinance environment, each year about 5-6 million Americans take out a new mortgage, now at 6%+ rates.

Expect more upward pressure on new listings and inventory in future years as a result. 1) The one thing keeping inventory constrained, even in the midst of its rebound from the pandemic, has been sellers delisting homes.

And other sellers electing not to list, because they want to keep their low rate.

Now that this mortgage lock-in effect is gradually fading away, it will structurally unlock more supply, and should push inventory up further in 2026 and beyond.

Austin TX is now back to pre-pandemic apartment rents.

Down 21% from peak in summer of 2022.

$1,636/month --> $1,288/month

(I'm now even seeing 2BRs in some apartments at sub-$1,000)

This rental correction is due to a sharp drop in migration/demand, combined with a surge of new apartment development.

At this point, Austin has its cheapest rents on record relative to income. 1) Here's an example of what's out there now.

2BRs going for $950.

This is a complex which is off I-35. A 9-minute drive to the Domain according to Google Maps.

$470 per bedroom.

U.S. homebuyer demand is near the lowest level on record.

And there's one reason why: horrendous affordability.

Right now, U.S. homebuyers need to pay 39% of their gross income in order to afford to buy a house entering 2026.

And obviously, no one wants to do that. As a result, sales demand has plummeted to the lowest level in 40 years (only 4.7% of occupied homes sold in 2025 - the lowest since 1982).

Historically, you can see these trends are negatively correlated. Mortgage costs go up, sales velocity down, and vice versa.

Note: the single-biggest determinant of Mortgage Costs is actually not Mortgage Rates. It's prices. Prices going up 50% crushes affordability more than rates going from 4 to 6%.

Lower prices will bring down the Mortgage Cost burden, and allow for more home sales. 1) if we want to re-stimulate the housing market, and make the American dream accessible again, it all comes down bringing down Mortgage Costs and making the housing market more affordable again.

This is what will bring buyers back.

For all the people who think Reserve Management Purchases are "QE" - look at this graph.

In an ample reserves system, Fed needs a certain amount of excess reserve assets as a % of bank deposits.

If they don't, a banking crisis could happen. And we're now at the point where reserves could be crossing the threshold from "ample" to "scarce".

Through November, excess reserves fell to 15% of bank deposits, now well below the 15-year average, indicating a tightening of conditions.

Which is why they are now ushering in incremental T-Bill purchases to keep bank reserve growth aligned with bank deposit growth.

In its current form, this it not QE.

However - if they were to expand the amount purchased, and/or buy longer dated securities, it would be QE. 1) There are several metrics you can use to gauge how much reserve liquidity the Fed needs in the system for their "ample reserves" regime - one is GDP, another is M2, but my personal favorite to gauge this is bank deposits.

During the pandemic, Excess Reserves (Bank Reserve + Reverse Repos) surged to 32% of all commercial bank deposits.

This was the "free money" era with massive QE that created the 2021-22 inflation.

Since then, with operation of QT, and general growth in the economy, the excess reserve ratio deleveraged down from 32% to 15%, indicating a tightening of conditions.

Why has the housing market been frozen since 2022?

Because the cost to buy a house with a mortgage (green) vaulted way above the a) cost to rent and b) the mortgage cost for existing owners.

The net result is that few people have a financial incentive to move. Cheaper to stay renting, cheaper to stay in current house/mortgage.

But - one interesting trend we are beginning to notice is the mortgage payment for existing owners (orange) is now growing faster than rent.

This is reversed from the post-pandemic period. Where sub-3% mortgages and still cheap taxes/insurance made for a very low cost to own for existing mortgage holders.

Now - taxes and insurance are up, and more of the mortgaged population is holding a 6%+ rate. So the costs for existing mortgage holders are rising.

This likely means we'll see more existing owners elect to sell in 2026, as it becomes less profitable for the average homeowner to rent out their house. And more profitable to cash out on your equity, sell, and rent for a bit until market corrects.

Translation: expect more for sale inventory, and more downward price pressure in the for sale market. 1) The other obvious conclusion from the graph above is that finding a way to drive down the cost to buy a house would help unlock the housing market.

e.g., the closer the Mortgage Payment to Buy goes to Monthly Rent and Mortgage Cost for Current Owners, the more home sale transactions will take place.

As the financial incentive to move increases.

Markets with the biggest rent deflation over the last 3 years:

Austin: -21%
Fort Myers: -19%
CoSprings: -15%
Phoenix: -14%
Raleigh: -13%
San Antonio: -12%
Atlanta: -11%
Denver: -11%

Expect apartments rents in these markets to continue declining in 2026, as vacancy rates remain elevated.

Good news for renters, bad news for investors who bought near the peak. 1) The deflationary rental environment, particularly in the Sun Belt area of America, is one reason why I believe we'll continue to see more inventory hit the market next year.

Simply put, many investors and landlords over-extended themselves during the pandemic boom, bought near peak values and low cap rates, and can't afford to hold properties through a declining rental environment.

San Francisco is the strongest housing market in America right now.

Home sales are 12% above the long-term average.

While inventory is -28% below the long-term average.

The AI boom has flipped SF on its head, and Reventure is now forecasting rising prices over the next 12 months.

(note: where you don't want to be on the graph above is in the top left. That's very low demand, and very high supply). 1) Of course - let's not forget that San Francisco was one of the weakest housing markets in America since the pandemic.

With values dropping 14.7% since the middle of 2022, one of the stiffest corrections in the U.S.

The typical price of a condo/house in SF county is now $1.25 million, one of the highest in the U.S., but much cheaper than it was several years ago.

Pending home sales in October 2025 came in -1.2% below last year, and -27% below the long-term average.

Today's contract signings are at the lowest level in 30+ years - even worse than the GFC - and showing no noticeable signs of improvement (even after 6 Fed rate cuts and a big spike in inventory)

Suggesting there's major structural inertia in housing right now. The market is unaffordable, overpriced, and cheaper to rent - and as a result homebuyers are fundamentally disinterested.

On top of that - many households are now delaying family formation and electing not to have kids, which further reduces the urgency to buy.

Sellers who are delisting their houses right now, in hopes of an improved market in 2026, could be making a big mistake.

Access Reventure's Price Forecast for your city and ZIP at reventure.app. 1) I can't stress enough how crazy it is that NAR's Pending Sales figures just came in -1.2% below last year.

Remember - last year at this time, we only had one double rate cut.

Since then, we've had another 4 quarter point rate cuts

And demand went down!

The U.S. Housing Market is about to get hit by a big demographic shift.

By 2032, there will be more deaths than births in the U.S.

This crossover point will be the continuation of a long-term trend over the last four decades, and ultimately will have the following impacts:

a) structurally lower homebuyer demand, as declining births and family formation lowers the need and urgency for young people to buy houses

b) more inventory, as incrementally more deaths and the aging out of the Baby Boomer generation increases listings (Freddie Mac estimates 9 million homes by 2035).

This will likely have a disinflationary and/or deflationary impact on home prices over the long-term.

Reventure just added Birth/Death Ratio data for every county in the U.S., going back 30 years, under 'Demographic Data'. Sign up to see the demographic trends in your area at reventure.app. 1) Many participants in the housing market are ignoring this issue, as if it does not provide a positive outlook for home prices, and it's also still another 6-7 years off.

However, serious homebuyers and investors should dig in and understand how the demographic decline will impact their area.

The U.S. housing shortage is over.

Over the last four years, housing inventory has doubled from its pandemic lows. And is now only 9% lower than the same month in 2019.

This is great news for buyers, and increases the likelihood of declining prices.

However - there's big bifurcation by region.

In South and West, listings are up 5-10%. 📈
In Northeast/Midwest, listings are down 30-40%.📉

Meaning there are essentially two different housing markets operating in the U.S. right now.

To see how your area is performing, type in your ZIP and search the data at reventure.app 1) This bifurcated market has taken many in the housing industry by surprise, as most analysts expected the boomtown Southern states to continue appreciating.

But the exact opposite has happened over the last 3 years.

Inventory in the South - and West - has exploded.

To the point that these areas are now in a inventory surplus. While the Northeast/Midwest Rust Belt remains in a persistent shortage.

The weakness in the rental market right now is alarming.

Suggests there's much more deflationary pressure in housing/economy than people understand.

And that 2026 will be a year where CPI drops.

Note: over 33% of the inflation calculation is based on rental cost estimates. 1) Here's the chart from the CoStar article. -0.31 rent growth in October.

Normally there's a seasonal slowdown around this point.

However, this was the biggest in over 15 years.

U.S. home value growth is entering recessionary territory in late 2025.

With Zillow's value index growing by only 0.1% over the last 12 months.

The previous times we've seen home value growth this low have mostly been associated with economic recessions. (like 2008, 1991, 1982, 1973).

This confirms the comments made earlier this week by Scott Bessent, that the housing market is in fact in a recession.

The question is: will national home values finally dip negative in 2026, and which cities will be the best places to buy next year?

To find out, go to reventure.app and sign up for premium to see our 12-month forecast for your ZIP code. 1) While many are frustrated that home prices are still near all-time highs, the reality is that a housing market trending towards 0% nominal home price growth is one already well into a recession, given how abnormally low this appreciation is.

In the last 55 years, it has only happened 5 times. 4 were recessions. And one was the mortgage rate shock in 2022.

110 years of Home Price Growth v Rent Growth.

There's four distinct periods where home price growth greatly exceeded rent growth:

1943-1947: World War 2 boom
1974-1979: Inflation-era boom
1998-2005: Mortgage bubble boom
2016-2022: ZIRP / Pandemic boom

Amazingly - almost all of America's inflation-adjusted home price growth in the last century comes from these 4 periods.

From 1916 to 1970, if you exclude WW2, home price and rent growth moved in near lockstep with each other.

Since 1970 - home price growth and rent growth have decoupled, with home prices becoming much more volatile.

However, since 1970, home price growth tends to reverts back to rent growth. Suggesting that we will see the rental market outperform the for-sale housing market in coming years.

To access housing market data like this for your city, go to reventure.app and type in your ZIP code. 1) The housing market is actually fairly simple when you adopt a longer term outlook:

It's a function of inflation (measured by rent growth), demographics, and government intervention.