New homes for sale by region in America.

Clear where the housing bubble is: the South.

65% of all builder homes for sale are in the South, with a huge swath located in Texas/Florida.

This isn't exactly like the mid-2000s bubble. But in the South the similarities are becoming more and more striking. 1) Meanwhile - builder inventory in Northeast/Midwest is lagging far behind the previous mid-2000s peak.

Here's the comparison between regions in homes for sale v 2006.

South: +1% higher than 2006 bubble
West: -18% lower
Midwest: -62% lower
Northeast: -51% lower

Home builders now have 102,000 completed, unsold homes sitting on their builder lots.

This is the highest level since 2009.

Indicating a huge ramp up in supply that is likely to get worse in the second half of 2024 as buyer demand remains subdued.

Watch the builders. They are flashing lots of warnings right now about economy/housing market. 1) We know that this builder unsold supply will increase because the amount of homes they have UNDER CONSTRUCTION is still near the highest level in decades.

These under construction for sale homes are going to continue to convert to completed ones over the next 6-12 months.

Nashville just set a record for price cuts.

With 35.2% of sellers cutting the price in June 2024.

That's the highest level for June going back 7 years. And well above the long-term average of 24%.

Suggesting that Nashville's housing market has entered a downturn.

Don't be surprised if prices drop there in H2 2024. 1) The price cut rate is one of the most important metrics you can look at as a homebuyer or real estate investor.

It tells you the percentage of sellers reducing the price in a given month.

And when 1,000s of sellers across an entire market begin to reduce the price - it's generally a leading indicator that aggregate price levels will drop in the next 6 months.

Housing inventory in Orlando is now spiking like it's 2007.

With active listings skyrocketing 82% over the last year. To 10,759 homes on the market.

That's the highest level of supply since at least 2017.

Suggesting: home prices will be going down in Orlando. And potentially by a lot.

Access the inventory data for yourself here: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=… 1) This Florida housing downturn keeps getting more intense by the day. With a combination of investors, builders, and inflation-burdened homeowners off-loading houses at a historically fast clip.

This increase in listings is now corresponding with a slowdown in demand, which is pushing inventory levels through the roof.

Mortgage applications to buy a house remain at their lowest level since 1995.

Down 14% from last year's already low levels.

Homebuyers remain on strike, even with mortgage rates declining over the last two months.

Will be very interesting to see what happens in September when Fed cuts.

Thus far - buyers are indicating they need to see a lot more than 50bps reductions in mortgage rates to come back into market. 1) The reality that many housing analysts miss is that homebuyers don't really care about mortgage rates.

Rather - most prospective buyers look on Zillow at a house that costs $500k. And they think "no way is that house worth more than $400k".

And they stop looking.

So incremental drops in mortgage rates aren't moving the needle much for affordability-constrained house hunters.

Price cuts are getting ugly in certain housing markets.

Take Denver. Where the price cut rate just hit 42% of all listings in June 2024.

That's the 2nd highest price cut rate on record. And indicates that nearly half of sellers are feeling pressure to reduce the price.

A clear indication of a declining market. Expect prices in Denver to drop in H2 2024.

Head to to track the price cut rate in your city and ZIP code.reventure.app 1) Price cuts are one of the most useful indicators of the direction of a housing market.

The more that sellers are cutting list prices, the more likely the market is to decline into the future.

Price Cut % is data point available on Reventure App that takes the number of listings with a price cut in a given month and divides it by total listings.

Another market that is getting slammed with inventory: San Antonio, TX.

This is a more affordable market that benefited from Austin getting really expensive. Lots of people moved down to San Antonio.

However, the dynamics are now shifting. With 11,370 homes on the market in June 2024.

That's 53% more inventory than the long-run average for June. Indicating a glut of listings. 1) San Antonio ranks as having the 4th largest inventory surplus in America right now.

Behind Lakeland, Austin, and Palm Bay.

You can see - the markets with the biggest glut of listings are almost universally concentrated in Florida and Texas.

The inventory spike in Texas/Florida right now is breathtaking.

Active listings in these two states up to 249,000.

The highest level in the last 7 years. And they continue to go up like a hockey stick.

Don't be surprised if values in Texas/Florida are down by at least 10% by year end.

Meanwhile - Northeast US is still in massive inventory shortage. 1) The graph above points to how bifurcated the US Housing Market is right now.

Texas and Florida literally have 276% more inventory than the entire Northeast US, which comprises 9 states.

Prior to the pandemic these regions had the same amount of inventory.

Price cuts on the US Housing Market just hit their highest level in six years.

With 24.3% of sellers reducing the price of their house in June 2024.

That's the highest rate since 2018.

A signal that there will be downward pressure on home prices in the 2nd half of 2024. 1) Of course - how much downward pressure depends on where you live.

Housing Markets in Texas, Florida, and Arizona are experiencing skyrocketing inventory. With lots of price cuts.

These markets are a good bet to decline in H2 2024.

However, many Northeast and Midwest markets still have low price cut and inventory levels. And will likely remain more stable.

A massive housing bubble has developed, and is about to pop, in the South.

The number of new homes for sale in the Southern Region (FL, GA, TN, TX, etc.) has spiked up to nearly 300,000.

This is the highest level of all-time. Even higher than the previous bubble peak in August 2006.

Before the massive crash.

Many people want you think "this time is different" in the housing market.

It isn't. 1) For a visual representation of what we mean by "South", check this map. This comes from the US Census Bureau regional delineations.

South includes basically everything south of DC, extending west to Texas.

Includes most of the big homebuilding states like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee.

Home prices in Manhattan have dropped by 22% from their peak in mid-2022.

And could have further to fall.

There's now 10 months of supply on the Manhattan condo/co-op market. Suggesting more price drops coming.

Interestingly - values in Manhattan are the most affordable they have been in 20 years relative to income. In nominal terms, today's prices are almost back to 2006 levels.

Time to buy? 1) You can access the home value chart for Manhattan for free here:

Values in Manhattan, of course, are still expensive. With a typical condo/co-op value of $1.1 Million. So most people are still priced out.

However, over 60% of Manhattan sales are in cash. So the buyer pool is very different from a normal housing market.map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=…

The downturn in Austin, TXs housing market is remarkable.

Inventory has now spiked to the highest level on record.

More than 25% higher than the previous, pre-pandemic high.

And the listings just keep coming.

Values down nearly 20% already and could have another 15% decline to go. 1) Austin is remarkable because only 2 years ago, most housing analysts believed this market wouldn't crash.

They believed the Kool-Aid of "everyone is moving to Austin". It's becoming the Silicon Valley, etc.

But it was always obvious that this market would crash.

Top 10 Housing Markets with the highest price cut rate in May 2024.

More price cuts mean more seller desperation. And a greater likelihood that prices drop in the future.

1. Tampa - 37% price cut rate 📉
2. Austin - 36%
3. Colorado Springs - 36%
4. Denver - 36%
5. Jacksonville - 35%

In these markets - over 1/3 of sellers are reducing the price in a given month. That's a lot.

Head to Reventure App to see what the price cuts look like in your city and ZIP code under a premium plan: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=… 1) Now here's the crazy thing: price cuts in many of these markets aren't just high.

They're approaching the highest level in the last decade.

For instance, in Tampa, today's 36.9% price cut rate is the 2nd highest level going back to 2017.

Pretty wild. Look out below if your housing market looks like this.

Access the data on Reventure App: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=…

The Austin, TX housing downturn keeps getting worse.

Inventory of homes for sale just surged +442% over the last two years. Up to almost 9,000 houses on the market.

That's the highest inventory level on record for April going back 7 years.

Prepare for more price declines in H2 2024.

Values already down close to 20%.

Access home price and inventory data in Austin on Reventure App: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=… 1) Austin's housing market is a cautionary tale about what can happen in "boomtowns".

Everyone moves in. The prices surge. Builders start pulling too many permits.

And then, sooner than you know, the market flips. And inventory gets dumped onto the market as demand and prices drop.

What's happening in Florida's housing market is wild.

You have ZIP codes where inventory has literally increased 1,000% over the last three years.

And is now sitting 2-3x higher than the long-term average.

Suggesting a major market downturn is coming in cities like Cape Coral.

Look out below.

Access data on Reventure App: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=… 1) Interestingly - home prices haven't declined by much yet in Cape Coral. Only dropping by a couple % points from peak, despite this inventory surge.

Leaving the market in a record bubble at a time when supply is gushing onto the market.

Prices are about 25% overvalued in this ZIP code. And have a long way to fall before local demand can step into absorb supply.

Access overvaluation metrics under a premium plan on Reventure App: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=…

Home builder sentiment collapsed in May.

Down 12% month over month. To an index level of 45.

This level of sentiment is well below the long-term norm and suggests sluggish housing market conditions in H2 2024.

Watch out for more aggressive builder price cuts as year goes on to clear excess inventory. 1) Builder sentiment is declining because of subdued buyer demand conditions to go along with rising inventory levels.

For example - the supply of completed, unsold homes on builder lots is now at the highest level in 13 years.

Source: US Census Bureau

American homebuyers can now expect to pay 41% of their gross income on mortgage costs.

This is the highest rate of mortgage burden since the early 1980s when rates were 18%.

No historical precedent for this lack of affordability lasting.

Note that in mid-2000s bubble the mortgage burden peaked at 39%. Less than it is today. Before collapsing.

What this suggests is that today's historical lack of affordability won't last. Something will eventually give. Lower prices, lower rates, and/or higher incomes. 1) Here's the math in the graph above, for those who are curious:

Monthly Payment: $2,754 (inclusive of taxes, insurance)
Annual Payment: $33,048

2024 Median Income: $79,790

=41% mortgage burden ratio.

Housing inventory in Nashville, TN has skyrocketed.

Surging by an insane +385% over the last two years. Inventory is now at its highest level in 5 years.

Suggesting a sharp slowdown in the market. Fewer buyers, more sellers.

Nashville could be another market where prices drop in 2024.

Access this graph here: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=… 1) What's interesting is that this inventory surge in Nashville is happening amidst a wave of positive press about how many people are moving to the city.

WSJ just ran a piece about Nashville booming.

But that doesn't seem to be backed up by the data anymore...

Stock Market as a % of GDP.

And they say it's not a bubble... Housing Market as a % of GDP.

Definitely a bubble.

Housing inventory in Orlando, FL is skyrocketing.

With the active listings on the market up an amazing +362% over the last two years.

This now brings the total inventory in Orlando back to pre-pandemic levels.

Inventory is rising because there are fewer buyers and more sellers. Making it more and more likely that prices will drop in 2024.

Access the graph here: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=… 1) What's alarming about this inventory rise in Orlando is how fast it's occurring.

We basically have back to back years where inventory has doubled.

Suggesting that we're going to see even more listings in future months/years.

The US Mortgage Market is crashing. Hard.

With Mortgage Applications to buy a house plummeting -14% from last year.

And now languishing at their lowest level since 1995.

The housing market is frozen. And buyers aren't coming back until prices/rates drop. 1) Collapsing mortgage demand is a huge problem for the Housing Market.

Because roughly 70% of home sales in America require a mortgage to complete the transaction (Source: NAR).

So if mortgage demand is at the lowest level in 28 years...well do the math on housing demand overall.