Biggest inventory growth markets YoY.

Listings up 40-60%.

5 of the top 11 are California. 1) Overall inventory levels in California's housing market are still fairly low.

With only 0.6% of all the houses across the state listed for sale.

People are fleeing Austin, TX in droves.

The city lost -13,500 people to outbound migration in 2024.

The biggest drop the city has ever experienced.

This outmigration has now caused Austin's housing market to collapse. With home prices down -19.5% over the last two+ years. 1) In Travis County, which covers Austin and some surrounding areas, domestic migration was running +14,000 per year at the pandemic peak in 2020.

And has now reversed course to -13,500 per year in 2024.

That's almost a 28,000 net downward swing in movers.

Markets in Florida with the most price cuts to start 2025:

Punta Gorda - 41% price cut rate
Cape Coral - 39
North Port - 37%
Tampa - 36%
Naples - 36%

Most of these markets are experiencing their highest price cut rate in at least a decade.

A clear signal of a market downturn. 1) Here's Punta Gorda.

Price cuts up to 41% of all listings. Long-term average: 25%.

Tampa, FL is now losing people for the first time in its history.

The city lost -11,000 people due to domestic migration outflows in 2024.

Meaning that more Americans left Tampa than moved in. This was the biggest migration loss in Tampa's history going back to the early 1990s. 1) We're specifically talking about Hillsborough County here.

You can going back to 1991 that the only other two years that were negative on migration were 2006 and 2007, at the peak of the last housing bubble.

The loss in 2024 was 3x worse in % terms.

The inventory stats in Florida are mind-boggling.

This is Lee County. Which comprises Fort Myers/Cape Coral.

Now up over 14,000 houses for sale.

Almost double the long-term average back to 2016. 1) Here's a ZIP code on the northern side of Lee County. In Cape Coral.

Over 1,000 homes for sale currently, as of Feb 2025.

Long-term average is less than 400.

Landlords are getting desperate in America's Sun Belt.

2 months, even 3 months free rent is now being offered on brand-new luxury builds.

Many of these properties were delivered during pandemic, and many are still sitting 20% empty. 1) The example above is a community in downtown Nashville, which is still offering 3 months free rent two years after completion.

Nashville is one of the worst-hit cities in this luxury rental downturn. Most properties near the center of the city are giving away these concessions, with 2-months free being standard.

Last year some were even giving 4 months free.

A concerning trend is now cropping up in Airbnb market: owners selling at huge losses.

In this case, the owner bought in Gatlinburg, TN for $980k in 2023.

But less than 2 years later is selling for $899k.

That's an $80,000 loss. 1) The result of this declining Airbnb market in East Tennessee is lots of owners selling.

For example - there are now 1,400 listings on the market in Sevierville/Gatlinburg.

That's quadruple the pandemic low. And the highest level of supply in a decade.

Washington DC housing inventory is exploding. 1) We're at the highest supply levels in DC's housing market in at least a decade. Perhaps longer.

The inventory explosion started in the spring of last year, around March 2024.

And it has intensified since.

(note that inventory drops every winter in DC. so there is nothing abnormal about the drop that occurred in January 2025. Inventory will likely pick up again on a seasonal basis in coming months)

Blackstone just sold this house in Florida at a $130k loss.

They bought it at peak of bubble in 2022 to rent it out.

But renting it was harder than expected. So they liquidated the property.

Given that Florida is in a housing correction, Blackstone had to cut the price to $360,000 from their original acquisition of $490,000 (-27% loss).

New buyers ended up getting a 4x3, 2,200 SF home built in 2020 for $360,000. In a good neighborhood.

Not bad. 1) A couple notes on this listing:

Blackstone owned it through their subsidiary entity SFR Acquisitions 2, LLC. Through a company called Home Partners of America, who Blackstone acquired in 2021.

Home Partners of America operated a "rent to own" model. And bought houses, rented them to people, with the idea that the renter could eventually buy.

I guess that business model didn't work out. So it looks like Blackstone is liquidating a large portion of the Home Partners portfolio, especially in Florida.

Home builders are signaling a recession warning for US economy.

There's only been five other times in US history where home builder inventory has been this high, relative to sales.

1974 recession (9% unemployment)
1981 recession (11% unemployment)
1991 recession (8% unemployment)
2008 recession (10% unemployment)
2022 rate hikes

4/5 times, there was a big recession, with a high unemployment rate. In 2022 it didn't happen.

What does this mean for economy heading into 2025? Are home builders signaling something regarding over supply and capacity that could flip into an economic downturn? 1) This data is pretty alarming to me. Home builder months of supply today is 8.96 months.

That's the 5th highest level ever.

This data comes from the US Census Bureau, and takes the total new homes for sale and divides by the sales pace.

It's the trailing 3-month average.

Probably my favorite housing market graph right now.

Orange line is inventory levels in Florida & Texas, combined.

Blue line is inventory level across entire Northeast US.

In Texas and Florida, there are 261,000 active listings on the market. 207% higher than the level in Northeast, which covers 9 states.

Prior to pandemic, these regions were the same.

Highlights the very bifurcated nature of this housing market. The downturn is happening in TX/FL, but we are still suffering a historic inventory shortage in the Northeast. 1) I'm shocked at how few people actually know this in real estate circles.

In my mind, it's the biggest story of the housing market.

The boomtown areas during the pandemic are falling fast. While the cold weather climates that everyone left during pandemic are still appreciating.

It's difficult to comprehend just how much homebuyer demand has fallen.

In January's MBA mortgage survey, purchase applications dropped 45% from the same week in 2020.

And they're down 53% from the same week in 2021.

Fed rate cuts and election being over have done nothing to stimulate demand. 1) This slow start to the 2025 housing market is coming off the heels of a 2024 which saw the lowest home sales volume in 30 years.

So not what you want to see as a broker, realtor, or home flipper.

Fewer Americans are moving to Southern states.

With domestic migration plunging 50% from the pandemic peak.

In 2022, 849,000 net people moved in.
In 2024, 411,000 net people moved in.

Basically back to pre-pandemic levels. If these trends hold, there will likely be continued issues in Sun Belt housing markets that relied on the big pandemic influx to fuel price growth. 1) Things look even worse when you consider the domestic migration levels relative to population size.

The 411,000 net people who moved South in 2024 were a mere 0.32% of the region's 132 million people.

Accounting for one of the lowest domestic migration growth rate in the last decade.

Home builders in America's south have a big problem.

They currently have a record number of homes for sale.

Yet domestic migration into the South has plummeted the last two years.

The result being: a huge overhang of builder inventory that is now pushing down home prices in several southern states.

Watch this story in 2025. It will likely worsen. 1) This is problematic for builders, and Southern housing markets, in general.

Because local homebuyers in states like Tennesse, Florida, and Texas were priced out of the market during the pandemic boom.

So the continued appreciation in these states is reliant on a continual influx of new homebuyers, plus the supposed "shortage" of housing.

Rising long-term bond yields are creating big issues for real estate investors.

With the 10-year US treasury now rising past the Cap Rate, or net profit %, from a rental property.

This means US government bonds now have the same return as buying a house and renting it out.

As a result - investor purchases have plummeted. And more investors are selling—especially the institutional ones. 1) To fully understand just how problematic this situation is for aspiring investors, let's do some simple math:

$2,174 is the monthly rent for a single-family home in US.

$26,088 year in gross rent.

$16,957 in net income after expenses (65% margin).

Divide that by the typical price of a single-family home - $357,000 - and you get a minuscule 4.76% cap rate or annual investor return.

That's simply not high enough to make cash-flow based real estate investment worthwhile in this interest rate environment.

Homebuyer demand has plummeted to the lowest level in 30 years.

With mortgage applications to purchase down 63% from the pandemic peak.

The last time we saw demand this low, it was 1995. 1) It's truly shocking just how much demand has dropped.

Through the first week of January 2025, mortgage apps were down:

-14% from same week last year
-19% from 2023
-54% from 2022
-59% from 2021
-52% from 2020

50 years of Home Price Growth in Florida.

Note how from 1975 to 2000, Florida home prices matched the inflation rate. Almost identically.

Then starting in 2000 something changed. Florida home prices became increasingly volatile. And haven't tracked inflation at all.

Curious why you all think this happened. I have my own thoughts shared in the comment section below. 1) My underlying theory is related to interest rates.

When interest rates were higher, in the 1970s-90s, Florida didn't receive much speculative real estate attention. And thus its home prices remained more stable.

But once interest rate suppression started in the early 2000s, Florida became the epicenter of real estate speculation.

Investors, 2nd homebuyers, 3rd homebuyers, and builders were all looking for an area to put capital. And Florida became it.

Florida has become very expensive.

With housing costs up 140% from their pre-pandemic levels.

In 2019 you could buy a house in Florida with a mortgage and only spend $1,060/month.

Fast forward to today and the monthly payment is $2,540/month. 1) Home prices in Florida are up 60% over the last five years, which is the main reason for this increase in housing costs.

The typical value of a house in Florida was $243k in Nov 2019.

By Nov 2024 it was $389k.

Rarely has buying a home been this expensive in America.

The only other two times with historical precedence are 1981 and 2006.

In 1981 mortgage rates were 18%.

In 2006 we were about to experience the biggest housing crash ever.

What will happen in 2025 and beyond? 1) I feel confident in predicting that housing will get more affordable for Americans over the next several years.

The question is: how?

Home builder spec homes for sale just hit 2nd highest level ever.

Quite the rebound from the shortage experienced from 2012-22.

Builders are doing their part to inundate the housing market with supply.

Only other time there has been more builder spec inventory was 2008 bubble. 1) A "spec" home is completed and sitting vacant for sale.

The builder built it intentionally without a buyer or wasn't able to find a buyer during construction.

So the home is just sitting vacant on the lot.

Housing inventory in Palm Beach, FL is skyrocketing. 1) Housing supply in Palm Beach County is up to 12,722 active listings in November 2024.

That's up 47% YoY. And is now near the highest level going back 7 years.

Suggesting a slowdown in the market is occurring. There's been a big drop in buyer demand, which is causing more listings to linger on the market.

Access the data here: map.reventure.app/dashboard?geo=…