Thread by @deltaxbt

I wanted to write another thread about $BTC and my HTF view, but there's really not much to write about as things are just ranging.
Will just write a quick one about why I allocated 25% of my cash to $BTC and ramble a bit.

From the ATH of 69k we are now down about 70%.
Other alts are down way more.
I believe most of the down move that is worth chasing is over, unless we get another leg up that will be a clear short.
The "easy & big" part of shorting in the bear market is over.

Just like In the bull market, where longs are relatively obvious and easy to take, and all you need is patience for AAA setups, same is with bear, just inverse.

And to be frank, I think this whole leg down was one of the easiest trading environments for me personally, I would argue it was even easier mentally than the bull market. (less profitable tho)

I keep repeating "The "easy&big" part of shorting in the bear market is over." simply because I honestly just want to make sure you guys won't short the bottom lol.

It's just natural that now, after a 70% aggressive move down, while ranging, is where so many will flip mega bear.

Does that mean I think it's the bottom? Nah.

Macro still sucks and crypto is still only a volatility proxi.

I have spot from a 18.4k and I think is worth for a long punt, aiming to sell it around 25-30k if market gives

https://twitter.com/deltaxbt/status/1571858700398116864

We are still ranging, like it or not.

We have price compressing and when this thing goes above 21k or below 18k I think we get a strong move to either direction, don't be too early to fade it.

I'm bidding from the green zone on the monthly chart all the way to zero, just in case (ahm ahm Kraken plz)

Daily chart still chopping
It really is just a scalpers paradise if you're on a tick chart

But for swings with conviction, I'd say wait to lose 19-18k or reclaim 20-21k

I think there are good arguments atm for both sides.

The bullish argument is mainly, bear absorption imo.
We have had several attempts to breakdown and they all failed.

Reclaim 20-21k and a swing long can look something like this

The bearish argument is much stronger still, simply don't fight the FED and the world looks like shit, so no mentally healthy people will bid risk assets like crypto.

That's why I allocated only small capital.

Lose 19-18k and a swing short can look can look something like this

I don't think I'll be taking this swing short though.

By my system at this stage, it's much better to just wait for a swing long, and scalp both sides intraday.

Might take this short in a few parts by scalping it etc.

I just don't feel comfy being short anymore, gut feeling.

So.. All this being said, why did I buy some Bitcoin?
Few reasons;

1. We are down enough from the ATH coming into HTF support levels that make me comfy to switch my trading account capital from USD to BTC and trade inverse futures. This allows me to hedge my spot if anything.

2. I have a gut feeling we go up, it also aligns with the chart in terms of another bearish leg up.

3. I like the coin.

I won't ever larp saying I took positions I didn't
I'm as clear as I can with you guys
After I took all those shorts shown in the chart they paid me well
I don't mind risking 25% of my crypto capital only for this reason

Gonna go start my day, just some morning writing from me

My writing is horrible
I feel I repeat things too much
Feel I write alot of words which transmit too little info lol
Hope you find this post somehow useful

I hate the fact I have such smart friends on this platform, really makes me realise every single time how dumb I am lmao

I wish I could share macro thoughts with you guys but I really don't know nor want to know anything about that

But all I can is share my gut feelings and charts, both of them served me well past few years

before anyone comes with "bro posts hindsight shorts"
ive had these levels there for months and months
took almost all of these shorts and posted about them here
so pls