The Kerch Bridge has been heavily damaged by a large explosion. One of the two road bridge spans is in the water, the second road lane has blast damage and a cistern train of fuel was set on fire in the same blast in multiple places.
Implications 🧵
1/
Implications 🧵
1/
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/15786065378029117441/
The first and most glaringly obvious implication:
In terms of strategic effect, this was a small 🇺🇦covert operation with gigantic systemic effects.
2/
In terms of strategic effect, this was a small 🇺🇦covert operation with gigantic systemic effects.
2/
2nd implication.
Such an operation could not originate inside Russian territory.
Crimea isn't Russian territory.
It is occupied Ukrainian territory that has a 🇺🇦friendly population as a base for such a covert operation.
3/
Such an operation could not originate inside Russian territory.
Crimea isn't Russian territory.
It is occupied Ukrainian territory that has a 🇺🇦friendly population as a base for such a covert operation.
3/
The 3rd implication is cultural, based on the most likely cause of the Kerch bridge means of destruction.
Some are arguing based on this photo that the bridge was taken out by emplaced charges, because two sets of cistern cars burned.
Just...no.
4/
Some are arguing based on this photo that the bridge was taken out by emplaced charges, because two sets of cistern cars burned.
Just...no.
4/
The additional cistern car burning is possible evidence of more than one bomb, but the stills from the clearest Russian video are not showing multiple detonation points.
5/
5/
https://twitter.com/FranciscoT_/status/1578648746086510592
What we are looking at here is a 40 ton vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED).
In other words, it was either a remotely driven, or more likely, a suicide truck bomb whose target was the cistern train which was stopped on the Kerch bridge.
6/
In other words, it was either a remotely driven, or more likely, a suicide truck bomb whose target was the cistern train which was stopped on the Kerch bridge.
6/
https://twitter.com/FranciscoT_/status/1578636325716373504
Occam's razor argues that the VBIED driver was looking over his left shoulder at the train when he toggled his load.
40 tons of explosive generates enough overpressure in a pulse to shear a span. The rebound then pulled the adjacent span off its pillar.
7/
40 tons of explosive generates enough overpressure in a pulse to shear a span. The rebound then pulled the adjacent span off its pillar.
7/
I'd bet the refraction of the detonation pulse throwing hot debris is what caused the addition cistern.
The reason I think a Ukrainian suicide driver was the cause is AFU sapper named Vitaly Skakun Volodymyrovych and how he died.
8/
The reason I think a Ukrainian suicide driver was the cause is AFU sapper named Vitaly Skakun Volodymyrovych and how he died.
8/
https://twitter.com/_Imaqib_/status/1497461726102446081
The destruction of the Kerch Bridge is a classic case of "F--k Around and Find Out."
Invade and ethnically cleanse a Viking vendetta culture for the crime of not being Russian.
And you are going to generate Berserkergang men willing to ride 40 tons of explosive to Valhalla.
9/
Invade and ethnically cleanse a Viking vendetta culture for the crime of not being Russian.
And you are going to generate Berserkergang men willing to ride 40 tons of explosive to Valhalla.
9/
The 4th implication extends from the 3rd.
There is no possibility whatsoever of a negotiated settlement between Putin's Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine will keep fighting to completely expel Russia from all Ukrainian territory, no matter what outsiders say or do, w/just rocks.
10/
There is no possibility whatsoever of a negotiated settlement between Putin's Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine will keep fighting to completely expel Russia from all Ukrainian territory, no matter what outsiders say or do, w/just rocks.
10/
5th implication:
Ukraine is using suicide truck bombers as a matter of state policy because the US Deescalation faction inside the Biden Administration didn't provide ATACMS.
And this was only the 1st.
If ATACMS are not provided, it won't be the last.
That's destabilizing
11/
Ukraine is using suicide truck bombers as a matter of state policy because the US Deescalation faction inside the Biden Administration didn't provide ATACMS.
And this was only the 1st.
If ATACMS are not provided, it won't be the last.
That's destabilizing
11/
This Ukrainian attack shows why the USA providing ATACMS to Ukraine is a move to _DEESCALATE_ the conflict.
The USA can get Ukraine to promise not to use ATACMS inside Russian pre-2014 borders.
The same is not true of Ukrainian VBIED's.
12/
The USA can get Ukraine to promise not to use ATACMS inside Russian pre-2014 borders.
The same is not true of Ukrainian VBIED's.
12/
6th implication:
The Knock-on effects of the security measures Russians will take after this suicide VBIED attack will do as much or more damage to their economy, & war efforts, as this VBIED did.
Inspection of everything in semi tractor trailer rigs is impossible to
12/
The Knock-on effects of the security measures Russians will take after this suicide VBIED attack will do as much or more damage to their economy, & war efforts, as this VBIED did.
Inspection of everything in semi tractor trailer rigs is impossible to
12/
...maintain for anything more than a few weeks.
Even for the remaining lane of the Kerch bridge.
Not if you want a modern economy.
The USA went through this realization after 9/11/2001 at the borders with Mexico and Canada.
13/
Even for the remaining lane of the Kerch bridge.
Not if you want a modern economy.
The USA went through this realization after 9/11/2001 at the borders with Mexico and Canada.
13/
7th Implication
There is no way to fix Kerch bridge quickly.
I did a thread earlier in the war on the lack of large prefab concrete structures in the Russian economy outside of prestige protects like the Kerch bridge.
14/
There is no way to fix Kerch bridge quickly.
I did a thread earlier in the war on the lack of large prefab concrete structures in the Russian economy outside of prestige protects like the Kerch bridge.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1512795379334631440
14/
There are simply no immediately available prefab concrete structures like road bridge beams in Russia to try and start repairs.
Nor are there beam launchers.
And there won't be for weeks.
15/
Nor are there beam launchers.
And there won't be for weeks.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1512810076771426304
15/
Russia has to restart a prestige project from scratch after the railroad bridge burns out.
And the heat affected zone on the railroad bridge simply has to be torn down and replaced.
One burned out semi tanker truck does that with US interstate bridges. A fuel cistern train
16/
And the heat affected zone on the railroad bridge simply has to be torn down and replaced.
One burned out semi tanker truck does that with US interstate bridges. A fuel cistern train
16/
...is orders of magnitude worse.
8th Implication
Russia is logistically screwed, blued and tattooed.
17/
8th Implication
Russia is logistically screwed, blued and tattooed.
17/
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1578701684166959104
While most people would have put this as the 1st implication. All the previous implications were required to give it context with this map.
That entire route is "Indian Country" for the Russian Army filled with Ukrainian partisans and special forces
18/
That entire route is "Indian Country" for the Russian Army filled with Ukrainian partisans and special forces
18/
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1578700700959506432
GMLRS has routinely been fired by the AFU beyond its stated 85 km range.
One US Army officer popped up in one of my Twitter threads claiming he took a 100km shot with GMLRS in Afghanistan.
If Ukraine would fight with rocks & VBIED's
19/
One US Army officer popped up in one of my Twitter threads claiming he took a 100km shot with GMLRS in Afghanistan.
If Ukraine would fight with rocks & VBIED's
19/
...what is it gonna do to that route with GMLRS?
Final Implication:
Russia has lost any logistical chance of the winning the Russo-Ukrainian War.
It's now all about how many Russians have to die in addition to Putin...
20/
Final Implication:
Russia has lost any logistical chance of the winning the Russo-Ukrainian War.
It's now all about how many Russians have to die in addition to Putin...
20/
... before the successor to Putin Russian government accepts that fact.
21/21 End
21/21 End
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