Thread by @ragnarbjartur

🇺🇦 FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (1 of 6)

While it may be tempting to assume that 🇺🇦 field reports are on par with 🇷🇺 propaganda, they have actually become better over time and correlate pretty well with OSINT data in the last few weeks. My first real 🧵.

🇺🇦 FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (2 of 6)

Nobody assumes that field reports are fully accurate. Some may be overly optimistic as officers want to impress their superiors. There will also be losses that field officers aren't aware of.

🇺🇦 FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (3 of 6)

There are certainly indications that the 🇺🇦 field reports may have been overly optimistic in the first months of the war, mostly in categories where it can be challenging to confirm the losses. But they have improved.

🇺🇦 FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (4 of 6)

Using tanks as an example, the field reports are a pretty good predictor of how the OSINT data is likely to develop in the coming days.

🇺🇦 FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (5 of 6)

The fact that the field report are higher than the visually confirmed data doesn't mean that they are without merit. OSINT specialists will freely admit that it is not feasible to visually confirm all equipment losses.

🇺🇦 FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (6 of 6)

Low correlation between field reports & OSINT data would hint at propaganda. But that is not the case when it comes to tanks and doesn't seem to be the case for equipment in total either (w/5 day delay).
📈 datastudio.google.com/s/g4t6UyreY4U