Political scientist & economist obsessed with data and on a mission to turn it into actionable information. Add me also here: ragnarbjartur@masto.ai
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Aug 21, 2023 โข 6 tweets โข 4 min read
โก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 21
โ Strikes & engagements below average
โ Troop losses <500, equipment below average
โ Double-digit artillery, APV, vehicle & tank losses
โ โ150 tanks this month so far
โ Oryx: 65:23 ๐ท๐บ/๐บ๐ฆ, 30-day ratio rises to 1.7x
โ 40+ missile strikes, engagements at 7-day average
โ 600+ troop losses, double-digit vehicle, artillery, missile, tank & APV losses
โ Also notable: Three air defence systems
โ Biggest monetary losses since Jul 27
While it may be tempting to assume that ๐บ๐ฆ field reports are on par with ๐ท๐บ propaganda, they have actually become better over time and correlate pretty well with OSINT data in the last few weeks. My first real ๐งต.
๐บ๐ฆ FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (2 of 6)
Nobody assumes that field reports are fully accurate. Some may be overly optimistic as officers want to impress their superiors. There will also be losses that field officers aren't aware of.