Ragnar Gudmundsson ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ragnarbjartur@masto.ai Profile picture
Political scientist & economist obsessed with data and on a mission to turn it into actionable information. Add me also here: ragnarbjartur@masto.ai
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Aug 21, 2023 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 21

โ–  Strikes & engagements below average
โ–  Troop losses <500, equipment below average
โ–  Double-digit artillery, APV, vehicle & tank losses
โ–  โ‰ˆ150 tanks this month so far
โ–  Oryx: 65:23 ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ/๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, 30-day ratio rises to 1.7x

๐Ÿ“ˆ lookerstudio.google.com/s/iX1JwpmEdXw
Image โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 21

Seven 7-day averages holding, four go down between days

CHANGES:
2x daily changes over 7-day average
No 7-day average increases

๐Ÿ“ˆ lookerstudio.google.com/s/o7BY6Np-cJk
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Aug 16, 2023 โ€ข 5 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 16

โ–  40+ missile strikes, engagements at 7-day average
โ–  600+ troop losses, double-digit vehicle, artillery, missile, tank & APV losses
โ–  Also notable: Three air defence systems
โ–  Biggest monetary losses since Jul 27

https://t.co/Rq5aIMDSfclookerstudio.google.com/s/ih6xppqiFjc
Image โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 16

7-day average of tanks, artillery, vehicles & missiles increases between days

CHANGES:
6x daily changes over 7-day average
4x 7-day average increases

+ 7-day average of landbased equipment up as well

๐Ÿ“ˆ https://t.co/Es67Nmnq1elookerstudio.google.com/s/rXwv5pSEJhM
Image
Apr 24, 2023 โ€ข 5 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 24

7-day troop losses keep rising, most landbased equipment losses in 2 weeks

REPORTED:
660 troop losses โฌ†
7-day troop average: 631 โฌ†
Equipment losses: $31M โฌ†
51 landbased losses โฌ†
7-day average: 31 โฌ†

๐Ÿ“ˆ lookerstudio.google.com/s/uv5oHRGKXvc Image โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 24

7-day average of troops & vehicles increases between days

CHANGES:
x6 daily changes over 7-day average
x2 7-day average increases

+ 7-day average of landbased equipment up as well

๐Ÿ“ˆ lookerstudio.google.com/s/pyEbm0cwTGI Image
Apr 23, 2023 โ€ข 4 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 23

Highest 7-day average of troop losses in April so far, Mi-24 helicopter destroyed

REPORTED:
690 troop losses โฌ†
7-day troop average: 621 โฌ†
Equipment losses: $22M โฌ‡
23 landbased losses โฌ‡
7-day average: 28 โฌ‡

๐Ÿ“ˆ lookerstudio.google.com/s/jH_6dSYCJZA Image โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 23

7-day average of troops & drones increases between days

CHANGES:
x3 daily changes over 7-day average
x2 7-day average increases

๐Ÿ“ˆ lookerstudio.google.com/s/i5gyh-GYpqc Image
Apr 22, 2023 โ€ข 5 tweets โ€ข 5 min read
โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 22

2nd highest troop losses & 3rd highest value of equipment losses in April so far

REPORTED:
680 troop losses โฌ†
7-day troop average: 597 โฌ†
Equipment losses: $42M โฌ†
25 landbased losses โฌ†
7-day average: 31 โฌ†

๐Ÿ“ˆ lookerstudio.google.com/s/iNthtz2K9Jc Image โšก๏ธ WAR IN #UKRAINE - APR 22

7-day average of troops, artillery & anti-aircraft systems increases between days

CHANGES:
x3 daily change over 7-day average
x3 7-day average increases

+ 7-day average of landbased equipment up as well

๐Ÿ“ˆ lookerstudio.google.com/s/kqTmoyS-gHs Image
Oct 8, 2022 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (1 of 6)

While it may be tempting to assume that ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ field reports are on par with ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ propaganda, they have actually become better over time and correlate pretty well with OSINT data in the last few weeks. My first real ๐Ÿงต. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ FIELD REPORTS VS OSINT DATA (2 of 6)

Nobody assumes that field reports are fully accurate. Some may be overly optimistic as officers want to impress their superiors. There will also be losses that field officers aren't aware of.