#ClimateChangeNOW#ExtremeWeather#HurricaneJulia update thread 8-10-22 (late evening CEST)
The possibility Julia may never become a hurricane is clearly on the cards. Her continued divergence (southwards) from the offical track also has signifcant implications r.e. impact.
This is illustrated in the latest GFS model run. The full 16 day run is a little implausible but this 165 hours is at least credible.
As you can see here the remnants of Julia cross the isthmus (as discussed in the last update) and then moves deeper into the Pacific.
The first image here is the rain solution for that first 165 hours.
The second is a rainfall solution through to 300 hours. Whilst still alarming to say the least, it is different from earlier runs wrt more rain over the southern coasts than the northern coasts.
Here is a portion of the latest NHC advisory that mentions this more southerly trajectory and its impact. However as of right now the storm appears to be continuing to diverge to the south of the track forecast, potentially amplifying this change over the next 72 hours.
Here is the latest GFS PWAT (Water Vapour) forecast from the same model - again over the next 165 hours till Oct 15th. The change trend is continuing to bring more water into the gulf. But the arctic air blast which is defending the US has the upper hand in this run.
This is the full 16 day IWVT (integrated Water Vapour Transport) plot from the same run. And I have some issues with it, specifically the three small hurricanes it is predicting. This seems implausible to me intuitively.
Also the hurricane (TR at the end) heading SW is odd.
The following 12-08Z GFS run has a more credible outcome - a single hurricane forming over the Pacific, meandering about for a few days and then heading out into the Pacific.
Tropical Storms/Cyclones rarely travel northwards over the isthmus.
This is the rainfall solution at 354 hours for the 12-08Z model it is a small improvement on the 6-08Z model in terms of impact with the main difference being more rain concentrations on the Pacific coast.
However a more southerly path across Nicaragua of #TSJulia rather than #HurricaneJulia (and there are increasing signs this is possible) would significantly improve the situation for the Central American countries in Julia's path.
To be clear though, this remains an extremely hazardous storm and the impacts across all Central American states - increasingly including southern Mexico are still likely to be very severe - particularly from flooding and mudslides.
The other aspect of changes in the model outcomes is relevant to possible threats to the US, which remain low thanks to a series of arctic blasts of dry air which are effectively protecting the southern coast.
Some recent runs had indicated the gulf threat might be increasing.
But not any more. In the latest GFS run this dry air mass, which is now forecast to be cover nearly all the United States seems to be increasing.
Interestingly this air coming in from the north is also very warm and appears to originate in the far North Pacific.
This is a 16 day temperature anomaly graph. The arctic Alaska and Canada are much warmer than normal.
Here we see the origins of this hot air south west of Alaska. This animation from 5th Oct. shows atmospheric height anomaly - which is indicative of high pressure areas (usually clear from cloud - and therefore likely to get hot).
This anumation picks up the story three days later.
The hot air continues to travel east, and it appears to be the explanation for why the (highly speculative) hurricane - we can see at the end of the modeling window - is heading South West towards Florida.
In this view of Atlantic temperature anomaly you can see the hurricane at the end.
Cat 1 #HurricaneJulia is now making landfall over Nicaragua, its core covers 3/4 of the Eastern Seaboard and will extreme rainfall is underway over more than 50% of the country already. The scale of the storm is comparable to #HurricaneIAN was at Cat 5 on approach to Florida.
#HurricaneJulia's IR presentation on landfall. The colour gradation represents cloud top temperature with yellow representing the coldest and highest parts of the cyclones structure.
Here is the current HRWF hurricane model foreast for Monday evening. A "Wind Gap Event" associated with the narrow isthmus between the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean in southern Mexico is currently forecast to dissipate the storm shortly after this moment.
The latest article from @declanwalsh is a curious affair. His sources are un-named "Western and Tigrayan" officials and Cameron Hudson (whose affiliation had to be correctd after publication).
The result is a garbled TPLF interpretation of recent events. nytimes.com/2022/10/08/wor…
It looks like a rushed job at the request of a @nytimes foreign desk editor who is even less familiar with the facts of the conflict than Declan Walsh appears to be. Declan's last story on the war was about the questionable kindergarten attack on 26th Aug. nytimes.com/2022/08/26/wor…
For a publication of the statureof the @nytimes - perhaps undeserved now - to publish just two stories in nearly two months about the largest, and 2nd most politically sensitive and controversial war on the planet is journalistic malpractice.
#TSJulia's wind and convection area now covers 2.4 million km, draging moisture off the Pacific Ocean over Panama & Costa Rica. Her outer rain bands extend from Colombia to Honduras - and she is not yet a hurricane.
While #TSJulia or #HurricaneJulia is not expected to last much longer, the #ExtremeWeather event associated with the storm is forecast to bring extreme/catastrophic weather across the entire region over the coming fortnight.
Accumulating rainfall forecast - 16 days. GFS Model
Exactly what will happen is far from clear as the forecasts keep changing but the combination of very high atmospheric water, and a massive arctic blast coming south (even pushing a small hurricane backwards down Mexico's Pacific Coast as you see here is not good.
A quick update on the wider #HurricaneJulia long term rainfall prognosis for Central America. Which unfortunately is deteriorating significantly in the latest runs.
The first week (Hurricane Julia) is bad, but the rains continue for another full week till the end of the forecast period. The next few tweets show how the model picture has evolved.
The full runs are not yet available but we have the first 120 hours - till 13th Oct.
Here's the IWVT (Atmospheric Water Transport/Energy) view - which shows #TSJulia crossing into the Pacific and taking a portion of the saturated atmosphere with her north west up the coast.
A lot has changed in the last 12 hours - not so much in the short term but in the longer term model track predictions - and therefore in the outcomes which can be expected for the wider region.
Specifically fromthe latest GFS run (and its predecessors) the degree of uncertainty with respect to impacts is increasing. At present Julia is not officially a hurricane and the extent of structure in the 300km wide central area of convection is not known.
Latest GFS Run.
The GFS data has changed the official forecast in line with what we see inthe last model and instead of taking a more northerly path through central America the storm is now expected to cross the Isthmus into the Pacific relatively swiftly.
I get that the TPLF do not want to attend peace AU talks, ever, anywhere.
But I am amazed at the lengths they seem to be prepared to go to in order make sure they do not discuss peace so they can continue a completely pointless war that is killing 1000s of their children.
Enlisting the @WHO, @JosepBorrellF, a majority of the European Parliament and the UNHRC and the former President of Kenya in this project is a master work, especially whilst keeping them all in the dark about the master plan.
But to what end?
Do the TPLF love war so much that they seek to never stop? Even if it means living in caves and hiding from drones and seeing their families and friends die?
It really is a tragedy. The peace talks ought to be on tomorrow in South Africa.