Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Oct 8 2 tweets 1 min read
We got our first photo from under the bridge, where I said earlier that we will find the answer:

1) boat - no.
2) truck - very unlucky driver, but very advantageous for Ukraine and russia, as it allows both to deny the use of
3) ATACMS, which punched that hole in the bridge
1/2 Image
when it came vertically down, smashed into the bridge as the fuze was set to delay, then broke the bridge apart and pushed it outwards away, which lifted the span to the West off its pylon.

We can now put all other theories to rest. Ukraine received a second batch of ATACMS.
2/2

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Thomas C. Theiner

Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @noclador

Oct 8
A video of a Ukrainian M777 crew firing Excalibur rounds from the same spot for hours without any fear of russian counter battery fire.

That is very interesting as it tells us a lot about the artillery battle. A short thread 🧵:

1/n
First, if you fire M982A1 Excalibur rounds (range 40+ km) you're outside the range of all russian tube artillery, Grad, and Uragan. You can hit them, but they can't hit you.

Secondly, M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS have destroyed massive amounts of russian
2/n
artillery ammo. And thanks to the range and precision of GMLRS rockets Ukraine can hit and destroy all russian artillery it discovers.

russia has now less artillery systems and less ammo, and russian gunners have learned by now that if they fire a few rounds, then
3/n ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Oct 7
Ukrainian artillery gunners released a video with around two dozens M777 fire missions.

Ten of these were M982 Excalibur. One of them gave away how the Ukrainians program their Excaliburs.

The video of that one Excalibur mission is here below.
1/7
In this screenshot we can see three of the components the Ukrainians use:

1) a tablet to receive fire missions and GPS coordinates over mobile internet
2) an M1155 Enhanced Portable Inductive Artillery Fuze Setter (EPIAFS) to enter GPS coordinates into Excalibur fuzes.
2/7
US troops can plug their EPIAFS into their M777A2 or M109A6 Paladins, which receive GPS coordinates from the Army's Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data System (AFATDS) through their SINCGARS radios.

As the US removed SINCGARS components from the M777 sent to Ukraine
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Oct 4
As things are moving fast on the Kherson front I drew up a few maps to explain the situation.

A short thread🧵:

In Kherson the russians hold a sizeable bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro river (shaded red), which could only be supplied by two bridges, one
1/n Image
just a bit North of Kherson and the other over the dam at Nova Kakhovka (purple pentagons).
Since the arrival of M142 HIMARS both crossing have been pounded heavily by Ukrainian forces.
Since August the Antonovsky bridge near Kherson is impassable for vehicles (photo), while
2/n Image
the dam at Nova Kakhovka is still passable for trucks, but not heavy vehicles (photo).

Over the last month Ukraine has been wearing the russian forces in Kherson down: through artillery fire, constant probing attacks, drone attacks, and by destroying their ammo and supplies.
3/n Image
Read 17 tweets
Sep 27
Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.

Let's dive in - a thread 🧵:
1/n
These Pentagon papers include all items the Pentagon ordered to replace equipment sent to Ukraine up to 12 August 2022.

I.e the Pentagon ordered:
• $1,381,308,000 of Javelins and $73,123,000 of Javelin Command Launch Units (CLU) to replace the Javs sent to Ukraine.
2/n
• $808,811,000 of Stingers. Interestingly $505,054,000 worth of the Stingers are for the Marine Corps, which hasn't ordered Stingers since 2005.
• $31,136,000 M777 howitzer spare parts have been ordered to replace the spares sent by the Marines to Ukraine
3/n
Read 21 tweets
Sep 25
A military needs to have the right mix between equipment (capability), numbers (capacity), and readiness (i.e. training) to achieve battlefield success.

Ukraine's military has the numbers and readiness - but it still lacks equipment. It is extremely defeatist and dangerous
1/4
that Western nations won't deliver all the requested kit to Ukraine: air defense, fighter jets, main battle tanks, self-propelled artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, Patriot, etc.

The longer the West dithers, the more putin is encouraged to prolong this war by throwing
2/4
the maximum numbers of bodies at Ukraine, even though his forces have neither the kit nor training to win against the Ukrainian troops.

Sending Ukraine every piece of kit they asked for, even if that means a reduction in capability and readiness of Western militaries is the
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21
Why are russian propagandists and the Kremlin so afraid of ATACMS missiles... is it a fear of striking deep into russia? is it a fear of striking symbolic targets?

No, it's all about logistics. A thread 🧵:

1/n
russian military logistics are a disaster: no forklifts, no pallets, too few trucks, bad maintenance, corruption, incompetence, no movement control units - without access to a railroad russia can't supply its troops.

For more about this topic - see:


2/n
The only way for russia to somehow keep its logistics alive are railroads. For russia no access to a railroad equals failure of an operation:

attack towards Kyiv from the East - no railroad = no supplies, troops starving, tanks without fuel, no ammo - disaster, then retreat.
3/n
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(