ChrisO Profile picture
Oct 9 11 tweets 3 min read
1/ A few months back, @TrentTelenko posted a great question (see below). The possible answer is somewhat unexpected – according to an L/DNR Telegram blogger, civilian vehicles are being used because all the military tires have been stolen and sold. A 🧵.
2/ The pseudonymous Telegram blogger "We hear from Yanina" (Нам пишут из Янины) writes:

"[The] Donetsk People's Republic 1st Army Corps and Lugansk People's Republic 2nd Army Corps have been stealing tires for Ural and Kamaz all-terrain army trucks for years".
3/ Until the recent annexation, the supply of parts for military vehicles was formally prohibited due to Russian restrictions on 'dual-use products':

"Parts, especially small ones, could somehow be brought. Large ones – cannibalize from broken vehicles. But what about rubber?"
4/ "In the spring and summer of this year, and even now, in the 'Zone of the Special Military Operation' it was easy to find out whose convoy stopped along the road, Russians or Donbass, without even talking to the drivers ...
5/ ... and without looking at the tactical signs on the doors of the trucks. Just by looking at the tires of the nearest Ural truck. If the tire is as bald as a knee – it's ours, if the pattern is still preserved – then there is a 90% chance that it belongs to the Russians.
6/ For seven years, cargo tires have been stolen from the People's Militia Corps, which is in high demand on the civilian market in Russia.
7/ And the few crumbs of this deficit that passed from the Russian Federation were not issued to the army units, but were sold to those who would give a bigger bribe ...
8/ The first solution was, of course, to replace the heavy vehicles used for 80% of the tasks with smaller ones – all kinds of civilian models of minibuses and vans for driving on asphalt, and UAZ-Bukhankas and Golovastiks for driving on unpaved roads.
9/ Moreover, civilian diesel vans [were adopted], because gasoline transport was a real ruin for any vehicle being driven constantly, except perhaps for artillery battalions with gasoline Urals in the role of BM-21 and support vehicles.
10/ What is the name of the gasoline Ural in our army? That's right - "Breadwinner" . If you have a gasoline Ural, put it on jacks in a box and write vouchers, and with gasoline from these vouchers fill up vans and cars that will actually carry people and goods." /end
(Source linked below.)
t.me/wehearfromyani…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Oct 10
1/ With hundreds of thousands of Russian men having fled the country to avoid mobilisation, a law may be introduced to ban those registered for military service from leaving the country. Translation follows of a report from the independent Russian media collective ASTRA. ⬇️
2/ "The chairman of the Crimean State Council, Vladimir Konstantinov, has said that the Crimean parliament will propose to introduce relevant amendments to federal laws.
3/ He proposed that a clear prohibition be imposed on a citizen of the Russian Federation who is or is obliged to be on the military register to leave the country during a general or partial mobilization,…
Read 7 tweets
Oct 10
1/ The independent Russian media outlet Sota is reporting that 100 newly mobilised Russian troops are refusing orders to mount an attack on the recently liberated town of Lyman, after only one out of a previous group of 100 men returned from Ukraine. Translation below. ⬇️
2/ "More than 100 mobilised men from the Bryansk region, who are now in the village of Soloti in the Belgorod region, have refused to go to war with Ukraine.
3/ The mobilized men themselves told Sota that they are meant to go to recapture Lyman, although according to their information, only one of the previous Bryansk group of about 100 men returned and is now in hospital.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 10
1/ Did the Crimea bridge explosion happen in the wrong place, and what does this suggest about how it might have been triggered? A 🧵 collecting some thoughts and observations that have been gathering in my mind over the last couple of days.
2/ When I first heard about the bridge explosion, my first thought was that it was in an odd place. This aerial photo shows what I mean. The arrow shows the approximate point of the detonation (which the Russians blame on a truck bomb) and the fuel train that also caught fire. Image
3/ This photo from before the rail bridge was completed is taken from almost the exact spot where the explosion apparently happened – just before the road slopes up to the twin arches over the shipping lane. Image
Read 29 tweets
Oct 10
1/ Finland's national broadcaster Yle has published an interesting interview with an explosive ordnance disposal expert, retired Major Myka Tyry of the Finnish Defence Forces, on the Crimea Bridge blast. He makes a number of points I've not seen elsewhere. Image
2/ Tyry estimates that the explosives used "may have weighed between one and two thousand kilograms" (2,200-4,400 lb) but was "not a conventional mixture of fuel oil and ammonium nitrate, but something of much higher quality".
3/ He also points out that it wasn't just a big fireball, but was followed by "flaming torches in the air ... This suggests the use of combustible metals such as aluminium, magnesium or thermite to amplify the explosion."
Read 12 tweets
Oct 10
1/ It's not clear yet what's been hit in this morning's attacks on Kyiv, but two points are apparent. Russia has clearly used Kalibrs, its most advanced cruise missiles and its most accurate, with a claimed accuracy of within 30m.
2/ And at least one cultural site appears to have been targeted, the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. It's a big site so was quite likely chosen as the aiming point for that particular missile.
3/ This makes me wonder about a rant on Vladimir Solovyov's TV show that @JuliaDavisNews posted last night.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 9
1/ I'm not going to try to suggest definitively what caused the explosion on the Crimea/Kerch Bridge, but I thought I'd suggest a useful way of thinking about it. A short 🧵 on the subject.
2/ Lots of theories have been suggested – a long-range missile strike, a truck bomb (the preferred Russian explanation), a boat bomb under the bridge, some kind of sabotage. It was clearly a very big explosion, in any case.
3/ The UK has unfortunately seen a lot of explosions of this kind due to the Northern Ireland conflict. This video is a police helicopter's view of the IRA bombing of Manchester city centre on 15 June 1996. It provides an interesting point of comparison.
Read 18 tweets

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