Thread by @TrentTelenko

The logistical crisis the loss of the Kerch Bridge represents for the Russian military, in the map below, is fuel.

Fuel is heavy & bulky, while jets & tanks gulp it by the ton.

The Russians no longer have a railway distribution system to deliver it to jets, tanks & trucks.
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https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1579049707128913920

The most efficient stop gap would be to use rail ferry's to deliver cistern cars to Crimea.

There are two problem with this.

The first is the queueing up of cistern cars onto a ferry is simply much lower volume compared to the Kerch bridge.

2/

The second is Russian rail ferry service stopped in 2020 & the status of the rail ferries is uncertain.

There are tweets claiming the ferries "were disposed" of since then.

So, getting those ferries back will take time.
3/

The Sevastopol Marine Trade Port (SMTP) Transloading complex #1 (PK-1) has the ability to load and unload complete rail cars.

So coastal tanker bulk transfer to cistern rail cars there is also a possibility, with some engineering effort & tankers.

4/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_S…

Another short term option is simply to lay a Russian Army tactical pipeline across the remains of the Kerch Bridge to patch a fuel connect between the two rail networks.

See this Nov 2021 article which addresses Russian Army logistics w/pipelines.

5/
warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin…

The tactical pipeline will be faster than the rail ferry/tanker options, but simply won't deliver the same tonnage of fuel into the now isolated Crimea rail network distribution system

A commercial semi tractor trailer fuel truck shuttle is not an option as the remaining
6/

...two lanes of the Kerch bridge has a serious amount of blast damage.

Plus those lanes will be needed at some point to stage heavy cranes to repair the rail bridge.

7/

The idea that the Russian Army has the tactical fuel trucks to patch the railway fuel distribution gap across the Kerch road bridge lanes is risible.

The "Feeding the Bear" article up thread makes that clear.

8/

The two major problems with these patchwork repairs is time and fuel volume.

Taken together all of these patchworks together don't provide enough fuel and they won't all be quick.
9/

Russia's current Tsar seems to have chosen the FAFO** option of minor surface repairs and pushing fully laden trains over the heavily fire damaged Kerch bridge until it collapses under the strain, reasons.

** (F--k Around & Find Out)
10/

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1579070996862349312

Now let's explain the reasons.

Fully laden semi tanker truck fires in the USA cause result in interstate highway bridges being condemned, demolished & replaced because the released heat load anneals the steel rebar and causes spalling of the concrete
11/
nbcdfw.com/news/local/dal…

This is something that happened on a pretty regular basis in the USA and there are now multiple construction firms that specialize in good, quick but very expensive repairs of such structures using the US free market of precast concrete structures.

12/
cbsnews.com/losangeles/new…

The Pine Island to Cape Coral temporary bridge that was built in a week after Hurricane Ian by Honc Marine is an example of these firms in action.

This is the classic industrial quality trade off triangle of "Good, fast, cheap, pick two."

13/
rumble.com/v1mt88g-desant…

The toxic waste dump of an economy under Putin's government of thieves simply cannot support such construction firms.

There is no free market of precast concrete structures in the Russian economy because the risk of government theft of said structures is too high.

14/

I've detailed this 'corruption-construction problem' with the Russian economy back in early April 2022 in a couple of threads.

This is one:

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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1512795379334631440

And this is the other:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1512810076771426304

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So Putin is going the FAFO route with the Kerch railway bridge to restore the fuel flow ASAP because he has no other realistic political choice.

The problem for Tsar Putin is politics can't cheat either structural physics or wartime military logistics.

17/

Russia's air bases in Crimea are going to run out of fuel at current sortie rates or simply fly less.

The Russian fuel supplies past the Donbass border are slowly drying up, immobilizing Russian military vehicle traffic in Ukraine's south.

18/

And we are all going to be treated to the spectacle of the Kerch railway bridge collapse in the near future with a loaded train falling into the strait.

I've reserved some popcorn, waiting to be popped, just for that event.

19/19 End