JWeiland Profile picture
Oct 9 5 tweets 2 min read
Austria is the first European country where Pentagon / #Hexagon may already be dominant

Hospitalizations are rising faster than any of their Delta or Omicron waves. I don't know what to make of it at this point, but needs to be watched in case there has been a change to severity
I don't want to read too much into this yet, but it seems unusual so far.

Any information from boots on the ground doctors or nurses in Austria? Has there been a change to patient presentation in the past few weeks? increased O2 needed or chest Xray abnormalities?
The current bundle of Pentaton / Hexagon Variants in Austria are:

BN.1 (50%)
BQ.1.1 (16%)
BY.1 (13%)
XBB (10%)
@JosetteSchoenma @EllingUlrich and @RajlabN pointed out that Austria has a selection bias on sampling for genetic sequencing, so BN.1, BY.1, and XBB are likely overrepresented, but not BQ.1.1.
To me, BA.5 alone does not seem like it can explain the spike in hospitalizations, since it has been dominant there for months, and caused a relatively small wave of hospitalizations in July. What has changed? Is hosp data accurate?

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More from @JPWeiland

Jul 1
I am happy to be quoted in this Newsweek article surrounding the case trajectory of Monkeypox! I do have a few claims made in the article that I would like to address. 1/

newsweek.com/monkeypox-case…
2) There is a claim made in the article that data from OurWorldInData tells a different story with flattening out of cases on a log chart. This is incorrect. The first weeks of this outbreak were filled with quick discovery of existing cases once we learned of the outbreak.
3) This early case discovery early was clearly exaggerated, and is exactly why I waited until the exponential spread steadied before modeling. The data since then has been steady exponential spread, and these data are what are being used to project forward.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 29
Monkeypox projections

Now we probably have enough data to model MPX cases forwards in the short term.

*IF* the current trend continues, we would expect to see 100k worldwide by August, and the first million in September.
We are definitely in the unmitigated spread phase of this outbreak which should follow consistent exponential spread Rt=R0 for some time. It will be interesting to see if Rt slows down once it spreads beyond high risk demographics
We do seem to be falling into the same familiar traps of Feb 2020, using only narrow case definitions for testing. Patients who present with telltale symptoms should always be tested, regardless of their sexual status or regardless of recent visits to Wuhan.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 16
Modeling forward at the present moment is a bit tricky, but I will share a range, and explain why. What we do know:

70% weekly advantage of BA.5 over BA.2.12.1

BA.5 will become dominant on ~June 26

First, what I think is worst case scenario:
2) Worst case is a slow rise of cases up to 170-200k per day before declining.

Best case scenario below: a steady slog of cases until a rapid decline starts in mid July
3) Why so much uncertainty? It's mostly about trying to estimate the level of herd resistance. Cases are FAR higher than what are being reported, mainly due to the prevalence of at home tests. This means our 100k/day is probably a million or more per day.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 19
New Subvariant B.2.12.1:

68% week/week advantage over BA.2

Significant growth of total numbers, doubling each week. 2.5x doubling speed compared to BA.2

New US projections model: Image
2) Zooming in on just BA.2.12.1 (new designation please, BA.6??) we see case estimates doubling each week (CDC data) up to current. This has a more significant chance to break through the shift in seasons to create a real wave than BA.2 could muster. Image
4) Because there is not a lot of anticipated immune escape with B.2.12.1, the wave should be inherently limited in size.

We won't see close to the 1M cases/day in January, but we could see 200k. Hard to tell for sure.

BA.5 may have more potential with F486V.
Read 6 tweets

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