How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App
https://twitter.com/JPWeiland/status/1946993576014922010
Not keeping score on Weiland vs CDC for variants and forecasting, but if I were, it'd be "A lot to a little".
All other telescopes observe the EM spectrum (different wavelengths of light, from gamma ray to radio waves.) This is different, as if detects the rumbles of space time when big collisions happen. Neutron stars on collision course disturb space time to such an extent that it..
I focused on New York state because XFG* is far ahead there relative to anywhere else, and they still have a lot of sequencing. It will take some time to evaluate it in other places to confirm the growth rates.
Even without a strongly growing variant, I'm still confident we will have a decently sized summer wave. Parts of the south and west basically had no wave at all in the winter, thus the susceptibility is slowly increasing.
Both Alpha and Delta had only moderate divergence from their predecessors, but they increased transmission in a time with a mountain of people with no immunity to severe disease. Their waves of cases were moderate, but the waves of death and hospitalization were huge.
It currently lacks both 455 and 456 mutations that have been critical for immune escape in the last 16 months. If it is able to find those before its candle runs out, I think it has a chance to outcompete the current variants. 2/
This is unfortunately about as good of validation as we can have since we don't measure prevalence directly in the US. UK and US are obviously not the same entity, but they do tend to spike together in December each year. Their data was not used to feed my calibration, so it..
Link to the CDC update: cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotl…
https://twitter.com/CovidDataReport/status/1870158477332496828

@WastewaterSCAN is a fantastic resource, but it has an averaging issue in the latest few data points, as they dont have samples from all of their sites yet, so it's not comparing apples to apples. They should consider averaging to tmax-4 days in their algorithm.
Emergency department data is currently 5 more days up to date than WW, and the trend looks quite different. Slow, steady increases. The reality may lie somewhere between them. I didn't post a WW update last week because I thought the decrease was a mirage.
A comparison of Holiday surge estimates from 2020 to 2024 shows just how unusual this prediction is.
https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1857817755199877451⚠️The right mutations at these sites can, on paper, significantly increase h-h transmission. That's why there needs to be immediate focus on this sample. It's somewhat unclear if the mutations occurred in this patient or prior to their infection.

This is not a knock for dentist speaking about covid. This is not my day job either. Sci/docs have made important contributions studying this virus even though it's outside their field. The issue:
The winter wave would be lead by the Northeast followed by the Midwest in terms of prevalence.
Prevalence by region:
Ratio of people currently infected by region:
Viewed from a different lens of total AA spike divergence from the current lineages, JN.1 takes the top spot. This is branch to branch distance. Also note BA.2 divergence from BA.1.
H5N1 positive cows and mammals on or near outbreak farms
The two mutations are like makeup and lipstick to disguise the virus a bit more to sneak past some of your antibodies from prior infection and vaccination. And she wears it well.
https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1752996491948327126
It's apparently been 4 months since the first sample collection date, and it still hasnt been detected in any other country that does sequencing.