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Oct 9, 2022 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/ I'm not going to try to suggest definitively what caused the explosion on the Crimea/Kerch Bridge, but I thought I'd suggest a useful way of thinking about it. A short 🧵 on the subject.
2/ Lots of theories have been suggested – a long-range missile strike, a truck bomb (the preferred Russian explanation), a boat bomb under the bridge, some kind of sabotage. It was clearly a very big explosion, in any case.
3/ The UK has unfortunately seen a lot of explosions of this kind due to the Northern Ireland conflict. This video is a police helicopter's view of the IRA bombing of Manchester city centre on 15 June 1996. It provides an interesting point of comparison.
4/ The explosion caused the equivalent of $1.5 billion in property damage and made a crater 15m (45 ft) wide, but didn't kill anyone. The bomb weighed 1,500–1,600 kg (3,300–3,500 lb) and was made from a mixture of the plastic explosive Semtex and ammonium nitrate fertiliser.
5/ The vehicle carrying the 1996 Manchester bomb was a 7.5 ton Ford Cargo van. The truck implicated by the Russians appears to be an International ProStar, weighing between 14.5-27.2 tons (32,000-60,000 lb). If a bomb was aboard, it could have been far bigger than in Manchester. Image
6/ The suspect truck was given a brief and apparently only cursory inspection by bridge security guards at 05:52 before it was allowed to pass. It reportedly exploded around 06:05, shortly before dawn.
7/ I wouldn't be surprised if the truck's arrival took place just before a shift change by the bridge security guards. At that time the night shift were likely hungry, tired, and cold, and would have been focusing mainly on going home to get warm and rested.
8/ In considering which of the possibilities I mentioned above are the more likely, it's worth bearing the principle of Occam's Razor in mind.
9/ This says (per Merriam-Webster) "that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex or that explanations of unknown phenomena be sought first in terms of known quantities."

So how does this inform views of the competing possibilities? It's quite useful.
10/ Long-range missile: an unknown quantity. There's no clear indication that Ukraine has anything like this, whether the US ATACMS or a home-grown alternative.

Explosive boat: also an unknown quantity, same reasoning. Image
11/ Sabotage: Ukraine has certainly been able to strike behind enemy lines, as various places in Crimea have discovered. So this is a known(ish) quantity.
12/ Vehicle bomb: As with sabotage, car bombs have certainly been used, as this assassination of a collaborator in occupied Starobilsk in August shows. A truck bomb is just scaling up. Another known quantity.
13/ Let's eliminate the two unknown quantities, leaving us with sabotage and a truck bomb. Comparing the Manchester and Crimea Bridge explosions, it's clear that the bridge explosion was much bigger. More explosives or more powerful explosives, but likely several tons' worth.
14/ Video footage from the rail bridge shows that there were cameras mounted underneath it to monitor possible intrusions (no boats were supposed to be under there, they go under the main span).
15/ Common sense suggests that any attempt to plant several tons of explosives on the bridge would have been easily spotted. Which likely rules out the possibilty of sabotage.
16/ So, thanks to Occam's Razor, it's fairly safe to say that the Russian theory of a truck bomb is the most probable. That's not to say it's correct – but it's the least complicated explanation and is most within the area of known quantities. /end
Some views linked below from a Finnish explosive ordnance disposal expert:
Further commentary and observations on Tyry's interview here.

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Oct 24
1/ THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION, DAY 2

69 years ago today, Hungary's revolution was entering its second day as the population revolted against the Communist government. This thread continues the day-by-day story of the revolution, as the Soviets became involved for the first time. Image
2/ (For day 1, see the thread below).
3/ In the early hours of 24 October 1956, Hungarian Communist leader Ernő Gerő appeals to Moscow to help suppress the "counter-revolutionary" uprising. At 02:00, Soviet defence minister Georgy Zhukov authorises the deployment of Red Army troops. Image
Image
Read 15 tweets
Oct 23
1/ THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION, DAY 1:

69 years ago today, Hungary rose up against a tyrannical Communist government backed by the Soviet Union. With Hungary currently under another pro-Russian leader, the story of the Hungarian Revolution is still strongly relevant. Image
2/ Immediately prior to the revolution, Hungary's Stalinist regime was deeply unpopular. Hungary's economy was struggling, Communist leader Mátyás Rákosi had been deposed by the Soviets over destalinisation, and the many past abuses of the regime were becoming public knowledge. Image
3/ A student protest sparked the revolution, followed by the Hungarian Writers' Union declaring its support for anti-communist reformers in Poland and laying a symbolic wreath at the statue of General Józef Zachariasz Bem, a hero of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 23
1/ A Russian soldier says that every man in his unit has been ordered to shoot his comrades if they try to flee, or face being shot themselves as a punishment. He describes an atmosphere of paranoia amidst huge losses, which he puts at 95% of men going into assaults. ⬇️
2/ The man says that he is from Altai Krai, where he was made to sign a contract to avoid going to trial for an unspecified offence for which he faced eight years' imprisonment. He has been serving in the army for six months and is currently a stormtrooper.
3/ He says that "every second person here drinks, to gain courage, to go somewhere [on a mission]." The reason why is understandable: "A hundred people would join a group [for a mission], take a position, and only five would come out."
Read 6 tweets
Oct 23
1/ A Russian city is literally drowning in human waste due to the failure of its sewage system. It's worn out but hasn't been replaced or repaired due to a lack of funding. It's a vivid illustration of the costs imposed by Russia's money being redirected to the war in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Balakhna is an historic city of around 51,000 people, founded in 1474 on the banks of the Volga River about 32 kilometers (20 mi) north of Nizhny Novgorod. However, its underfunded sewage system has collapsed, with the result that "the city is literally flooded with shit". Image
Image
3/ Balakhna native Alexander Kartavykh – a Russian warblogger – has been highlighting the city's problems in a series of posts on Telegram. He says that "the pumps aren't working, everything's broken, it's a complete and utter disaster."
Read 13 tweets
Oct 23
1/ Russian forces are making extensive use of infiltration tactics in place of the notorious 'meat assaults', according to a new report by @jack_watling. However, a Russian warblogger says that this is costing 2 or 3 times as many cumulative casualties as massed assaults. ⬇️
2/ The DShRG Rusich Telegram channel has published a video taken by a Russian soldier on an infiltration mission. He follows a path along a treeline which was used by many other Russian soldiers on similar missions – dozens of whom can be seen lying dead along the way.
3/ The channel's author writes:

"The tactic of infiltrating small groups (2-3 people), unfortunately, often results in greater losses than a single massive assault. Yes, on video, it looks tragic from the enemy side, with several units of equipment being destroyed."
Read 23 tweets
Oct 22
1/ A Russian colonel reportedly died of cardiac arrest after it was discovered during a rotation that he had been lying to his superiors about his division's control of territory in the Kherson region. ⬇️ Image
2/ Colonel Alexey Vladlenovich Plisov, callsign 'Ryazan', was the commander of the Russian 70th Motor Rifle Division of the 18th Combined Arms Army. The division was located on the left bank of the Dnipro river.
3/ Plisov is said to have repeatedly reported to his superiors that most of the islands in the Kherson region were under Russian control. However, Ukrainian reports and independent assessments have consistently assigned the islands to the 'grey zone' controlled by neither side. Image
Read 13 tweets

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