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Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Oct 10

I see a bunch of people say "Crimea Bridge was a fertilizer bomb!"

Fertilizer doesn't explode.

They actually mean ammonium nitrate, which is used in some fertilizers.

Ammonium nitrate doesn't explode either.

You need to mix ammonium nitrate with an explosive or a fuel to
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turn it into an explosive.

Probably these people think about ANFO - a mix of 94% ammonium nitrate and 6% of a fuel oil (most often diesel).

But ANFO is insensitive; it doesn't explode without a booster explosive like i.e. Tovex.

And Tovex doesn't explode on its own either.
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You need a detonator to get the Tovex to explode.

And a detonator doesn't go off on its own. As you don't know when the truck will be in the right spot you can't use a time fuze, you need to use a wirelessly controlled fuze.

This is a complex setup and it reeks of fuel oil.
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Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Oct 8

A video of a Ukrainian M777 crew firing Excalibur rounds from the same spot for hours without any fear of russian counter battery fire.

That is very interesting as it tells us a lot about the artillery battle. A short thread 🧵:

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First, if you fire M982A1 Excalibur rounds (range 40+ km) you're outside the range of all russian tube artillery, Grad, and Uragan. You can hit them, but they can't hit you.

Secondly, M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS have destroyed massive amounts of russian
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artillery ammo. And thanks to the range and precision of GMLRS rockets Ukraine can hit and destroy all russian artillery it discovers.

russia has now less artillery systems and less ammo, and russian gunners have learned by now that if they fire a few rounds, then
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Read 8 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Oct 7

Ukrainian artillery gunners released a video with around two dozens M777 fire missions.

Ten of these were M982 Excalibur. One of them gave away how the Ukrainians program their Excaliburs.

The video of that one Excalibur mission is here below.
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In this screenshot we can see three of the components the Ukrainians use:

1) a tablet to receive fire missions and GPS coordinates over mobile internet
2) an M1155 Enhanced Portable Inductive Artillery Fuze Setter (EPIAFS) to enter GPS coordinates into Excalibur fuzes.
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US troops can plug their EPIAFS into their M777A2 or M109A6 Paladins, which receive GPS coordinates from the Army's Advanced Field Artillery Tactical Data System (AFATDS) through their SINCGARS radios.

As the US removed SINCGARS components from the M777 sent to Ukraine
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Read 7 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Oct 4

As things are moving fast on the Kherson front I drew up a few maps to explain the situation.

A short thread🧵:

In Kherson the russians hold a sizeable bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro river (shaded red), which could only be supplied by two bridges, one
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just a bit North of Kherson and the other over the dam at Nova Kakhovka (purple pentagons).
Since the arrival of M142 HIMARS both crossing have been pounded heavily by Ukrainian forces.
Since August the Antonovsky bridge near Kherson is impassable for vehicles (photo), while
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the dam at Nova Kakhovka is still passable for trucks, but not heavy vehicles (photo).

Over the last month Ukraine has been wearing the russian forces in Kherson down: through artillery fire, constant probing attacks, drone attacks, and by destroying their ammo and supplies.
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Read 17 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 27

Pentagon budget realignment files are a magnificent source of info about what the US military is up to, what classified programs US Special Operations Command runs in Ukraine, and what equipment has been sent to Ukraine.

Let's dive in - a thread 🧵:
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These Pentagon papers include all items the Pentagon ordered to replace equipment sent to Ukraine up to 12 August 2022.

I.e the Pentagon ordered:
• $1,381,308,000 of Javelins and $73,123,000 of Javelin Command Launch Units (CLU) to replace the Javs sent to Ukraine.
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• $808,811,000 of Stingers. Interestingly $505,054,000 worth of the Stingers are for the Marine Corps, which hasn't ordered Stingers since 2005.
• $31,136,000 M777 howitzer spare parts have been ordered to replace the spares sent by the Marines to Ukraine
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Read 21 tweets

Thomas C. Theiner

@noclador

Sep 25

A military needs to have the right mix between equipment (capability), numbers (capacity), and readiness (i.e. training) to achieve battlefield success.

Ukraine's military has the numbers and readiness - but it still lacks equipment. It is extremely defeatist and dangerous
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that Western nations won't deliver all the requested kit to Ukraine: air defense, fighter jets, main battle tanks, self-propelled artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, Patriot, etc.

The longer the West dithers, the more putin is encouraged to prolong this war by throwing
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the maximum numbers of bodies at Ukraine, even though his forces have neither the kit nor training to win against the Ukrainian troops.

Sending Ukraine every piece of kit they asked for, even if that means a reduction in capability and readiness of Western militaries is the
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