Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 10, 2022 26 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Update for October 7-9 ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update…
Here is my update for October 7th through October 9th. #ukrdailyupdate

Not much happened on the 7th, and on the 8th and 9th, I was sick, so it was published today, on the 10th.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com Image
In the Kharkiv area, Russia launched several minor attacks on the border region (1,2), which accomplished nothing. Russia launched airstrikes from Russian airspace and fired missiles into Kharkiv city. Image
In the general Kupyansk area, Ukraine liberated a line of towns moving in a northeasterly direction toward Stelmakhivka (3). On the other hand, Russia is hurriedly digging defenders in the village of Kolomyichkha (4) to defend Svatove, which is dangerously close to the front line Image
Near Lyman, Russia pushed a minor attack west toward Terny (5), achieving nothing. They also build defenses in Pshenychne (6) and within the forests north of Rubizhne (7). Image
North of Bakhmut, Russia is desperately trying to attack but suffering very high casualties. There are attacks near Vyimka (8), Bilohorivka (9), Soledar (10), Bakhmutske (11), Krasna Hora (12), and Bakhmut (13) itself. Image
Russia is trying to maneuver around Soledar because the defenses are too strong to break through, but moving through the fields around the town leaves their forces exposed to artillery fire and heavy machine guns.
South of Bakhmut, the situation is a little different. Russia advanced to the garbage dump (14), and they attacked Ivanhrad and Opytne through the newly captured Vesela Dolyna (15) and Zaitseve (16). Image
They are also attacking the tiny hamlet of Andriivka (17) and the general Kurdyumivka/Ozarianivka area (18). Image
These events threaten the southern flank of Bakhmut, and I have heard many differing accounts about the city’s status, but I do not feel the city is in any real danger at this point.
Ukraine is suffering many casualties in this area, but by all reports, Russia’s losses are significant. I don’t understand how they can continue these attacks with this level of failure, and at some point, I imagine they have to stop.
Near New York, Russia is attacking the fortified train station of Mayorsk (19) and New York itself (20). This area is more or less the same as the pre-February 24th borders. Image
Near Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Vesele (21), Kamyanka (22), Pervomaiske (2), and Neveske (25). Russians claim Ukraine is attacking “Pisky,” an ambiguous statement because many things could be “Pisky.” Is Republica Mist Pisky? Is the Anthill Pisky? ImageImage
Speaking of which, the Anthill (A) is in the gray area right now. Russia doesn’t control it, but Ukraine’s control is fleeting and situational. Russia took Republica Mist near the beginning of the month, although the exact date is unknown. Image
There are videos of Russians attacking Pervomaiske and penetrating a few blocks into the town. These videos depict reconnaissance forces, not proper areas of control.
Often, the videos cut off abruptly at the end, likely because Ukraine identified and drove the recon back out of Pervomaiske. The defenders claim they have not lost any of their positions.
As such, it would seem logical that an attack on “Pisky” could be a Ukrainian attempt to take back Republica Mist (24), which is technically inside of Pisky and forms the outermost defense of Pervomaiske. However, it could also be a Ukrainian attempt to retake Anthill.
Furthermore, recently there were reports of Russia shelling “Pisky.” I believe these reports refer to the Anthill with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Oh, and in the recent past, there were Russian attacks on “Opytne and Vodyane,” which I interpreted as an attack on Anthill. Not quite. The easternmost portion of Vodyane touches the westernmost portion of Opytne, so this meant Russia was attacking the western part of Opytne.
A few kilometers south of Pisky, Russia continuously attacks Krasnohorivka (26) and Novo Mykhailivka (28). There are also minor attacks toward Pobjeda (27). In addition, Russians claim to have entered the town of Novomykhailivka this weekend, I do not have any confirmation. Image
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine is attacking south from Hulyaipole toward Polohy (29). They expanded the gray area south toward Polohy, but I do not believe they have liberated any towns or significant defensive positions. Image
I am focusing this update on military activity, but I will state that Russia is launching nightly terrorist attacks on Zaporizhzhia, which have destroyed hundreds of homes and murdered dozens of civilians. Image
Russia appears to have stabilized the Kherson front. Russia seems to have forces near Davydiv Brid (B), and I believe Bezimenne is contested (C ). Ukraine Liberated the towns of Nova Kamyanka (D) and Tryfonivka (E), but I do not know how far south Ukraine has gone from Dudchany. ImageImage
Closer to Mykolaiv, Russia attacked Liubomyrivka (30) and Ternovi Pody (31). However, they seem to have succeeded in Ternovi Pody and may have actually captured it. ImageImage
Finally, I am sure everyone knows about a piece of news already: the Kerch Bridge suffered severe damage on October 8th. The cause of the damage is unproven, but it is likely the result of a truck bomb, also called a VBIED (by insufferable nerds).
The damage destroyed several sections of one-half of the bridge and caused severe damage to one of the two train tracks.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Andrew Perpetua

Andrew Perpetua Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AndrewPerpetua

Oct 28
The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.

Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.

To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.

Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 27
Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.
In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.
There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 22
Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6
Russia attacked a bus in Sumy with a drone.

"According to the investigation, on October 5, 2024, at around 3:30 p.m., using methods of warfare prohibited by international law, the enemy drone attacked a bus traveling through the territory of the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district.

As a result of the attack of the occupiers, three passengers were injured - a 65-year-old man and 54-year-old and 63-year-old women."Image
Image
Image
"‼️Today, the enemy once again committed a war crime against the civilian population of Sumy Oblast.

⚫️ In the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district, Russians dropped an explosive device from a UAV on the Sumy-Richki shuttle bus.

✔️As a result of the explosion, three civilians were injured and a shuttle bus was damaged.

☝️ We ask the residents of the Sumy region to be as attentive and careful as possible, to observe air warning signals and safety rules.

📍The security and defense forces of Ukraine will not forgive these crimes and all war criminals of the terrorist country will be punished."Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 6
I am not convinced Russians actually control the area west of the canal in Chasiv Yar. We’ve been geolocating Russians there for a while, if you scroll back through our map you can see the geolocations and you can see the videos. You can see what the area looks like.
That area is not conducive to being controlled by anyone, Ukraine has thick drone coverage, and anyone who passes through the area has a very high chance of dying. Furthermore, the structures are completely destroyed and there arent many suitable places for defense.
I doubt anyone controls this area. I doubt anyone could control the area no matter how much they wanted to or how many resources they put into it.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 1
Russia is currently bombing Kurakhove into nothingness. They are systematically bombing the entire place into dust. Dropping every weapon they have on it. Glide bombs, tactical cruise missiles, artillery, rockets. They are trying to turn it to dust, to completely erase it.
Kurakhove is the anchor to the Ukrainian defensive strategy, it links their eastern line to their southern line. You can think of two concentric circles. There is the outer circle, that is Kurakhove. And the inner circle, that is Kurakhivka. Together they form this anchor.
Between the two is a giant reservoir. Russia is attacking Kurakhivka from the north. They are moving closer and closer to it. And now they are turning Kurakhove to dust.
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(