Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 10, 2022 26 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Update for October 7-9 ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update…
Here is my update for October 7th through October 9th. #ukrdailyupdate

Not much happened on the 7th, and on the 8th and 9th, I was sick, so it was published today, on the 10th.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com Image
In the Kharkiv area, Russia launched several minor attacks on the border region (1,2), which accomplished nothing. Russia launched airstrikes from Russian airspace and fired missiles into Kharkiv city. Image
In the general Kupyansk area, Ukraine liberated a line of towns moving in a northeasterly direction toward Stelmakhivka (3). On the other hand, Russia is hurriedly digging defenders in the village of Kolomyichkha (4) to defend Svatove, which is dangerously close to the front line Image
Near Lyman, Russia pushed a minor attack west toward Terny (5), achieving nothing. They also build defenses in Pshenychne (6) and within the forests north of Rubizhne (7). Image
North of Bakhmut, Russia is desperately trying to attack but suffering very high casualties. There are attacks near Vyimka (8), Bilohorivka (9), Soledar (10), Bakhmutske (11), Krasna Hora (12), and Bakhmut (13) itself. Image
Russia is trying to maneuver around Soledar because the defenses are too strong to break through, but moving through the fields around the town leaves their forces exposed to artillery fire and heavy machine guns.
South of Bakhmut, the situation is a little different. Russia advanced to the garbage dump (14), and they attacked Ivanhrad and Opytne through the newly captured Vesela Dolyna (15) and Zaitseve (16). Image
They are also attacking the tiny hamlet of Andriivka (17) and the general Kurdyumivka/Ozarianivka area (18). Image
These events threaten the southern flank of Bakhmut, and I have heard many differing accounts about the city’s status, but I do not feel the city is in any real danger at this point.
Ukraine is suffering many casualties in this area, but by all reports, Russia’s losses are significant. I don’t understand how they can continue these attacks with this level of failure, and at some point, I imagine they have to stop.
Near New York, Russia is attacking the fortified train station of Mayorsk (19) and New York itself (20). This area is more or less the same as the pre-February 24th borders. Image
Near Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Vesele (21), Kamyanka (22), Pervomaiske (2), and Neveske (25). Russians claim Ukraine is attacking “Pisky,” an ambiguous statement because many things could be “Pisky.” Is Republica Mist Pisky? Is the Anthill Pisky? ImageImage
Speaking of which, the Anthill (A) is in the gray area right now. Russia doesn’t control it, but Ukraine’s control is fleeting and situational. Russia took Republica Mist near the beginning of the month, although the exact date is unknown. Image
There are videos of Russians attacking Pervomaiske and penetrating a few blocks into the town. These videos depict reconnaissance forces, not proper areas of control.
Often, the videos cut off abruptly at the end, likely because Ukraine identified and drove the recon back out of Pervomaiske. The defenders claim they have not lost any of their positions.
As such, it would seem logical that an attack on “Pisky” could be a Ukrainian attempt to take back Republica Mist (24), which is technically inside of Pisky and forms the outermost defense of Pervomaiske. However, it could also be a Ukrainian attempt to retake Anthill.
Furthermore, recently there were reports of Russia shelling “Pisky.” I believe these reports refer to the Anthill with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Oh, and in the recent past, there were Russian attacks on “Opytne and Vodyane,” which I interpreted as an attack on Anthill. Not quite. The easternmost portion of Vodyane touches the westernmost portion of Opytne, so this meant Russia was attacking the western part of Opytne.
A few kilometers south of Pisky, Russia continuously attacks Krasnohorivka (26) and Novo Mykhailivka (28). There are also minor attacks toward Pobjeda (27). In addition, Russians claim to have entered the town of Novomykhailivka this weekend, I do not have any confirmation. Image
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine is attacking south from Hulyaipole toward Polohy (29). They expanded the gray area south toward Polohy, but I do not believe they have liberated any towns or significant defensive positions. Image
I am focusing this update on military activity, but I will state that Russia is launching nightly terrorist attacks on Zaporizhzhia, which have destroyed hundreds of homes and murdered dozens of civilians. Image
Russia appears to have stabilized the Kherson front. Russia seems to have forces near Davydiv Brid (B), and I believe Bezimenne is contested (C ). Ukraine Liberated the towns of Nova Kamyanka (D) and Tryfonivka (E), but I do not know how far south Ukraine has gone from Dudchany. ImageImage
Closer to Mykolaiv, Russia attacked Liubomyrivka (30) and Ternovi Pody (31). However, they seem to have succeeded in Ternovi Pody and may have actually captured it. ImageImage
Finally, I am sure everyone knows about a piece of news already: the Kerch Bridge suffered severe damage on October 8th. The cause of the damage is unproven, but it is likely the result of a truck bomb, also called a VBIED (by insufferable nerds).
The damage destroyed several sections of one-half of the bridge and caused severe damage to one of the two train tracks.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 15
I started the weekend with like 40 days of backlog. Ugh. I did 19 days. Meh. Here are the days. Image
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Read 19 tweets
Mar 19
Here are losses for February.

First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses. Image
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs. Image
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Read 7 tweets

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