Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 10, 2022 26 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Update for October 7-9 ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update…
Here is my update for October 7th through October 9th. #ukrdailyupdate

Not much happened on the 7th, and on the 8th and 9th, I was sick, so it was published today, on the 10th.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com Image
In the Kharkiv area, Russia launched several minor attacks on the border region (1,2), which accomplished nothing. Russia launched airstrikes from Russian airspace and fired missiles into Kharkiv city. Image
In the general Kupyansk area, Ukraine liberated a line of towns moving in a northeasterly direction toward Stelmakhivka (3). On the other hand, Russia is hurriedly digging defenders in the village of Kolomyichkha (4) to defend Svatove, which is dangerously close to the front line Image
Near Lyman, Russia pushed a minor attack west toward Terny (5), achieving nothing. They also build defenses in Pshenychne (6) and within the forests north of Rubizhne (7). Image
North of Bakhmut, Russia is desperately trying to attack but suffering very high casualties. There are attacks near Vyimka (8), Bilohorivka (9), Soledar (10), Bakhmutske (11), Krasna Hora (12), and Bakhmut (13) itself. Image
Russia is trying to maneuver around Soledar because the defenses are too strong to break through, but moving through the fields around the town leaves their forces exposed to artillery fire and heavy machine guns.
South of Bakhmut, the situation is a little different. Russia advanced to the garbage dump (14), and they attacked Ivanhrad and Opytne through the newly captured Vesela Dolyna (15) and Zaitseve (16). Image
They are also attacking the tiny hamlet of Andriivka (17) and the general Kurdyumivka/Ozarianivka area (18). Image
These events threaten the southern flank of Bakhmut, and I have heard many differing accounts about the city’s status, but I do not feel the city is in any real danger at this point.
Ukraine is suffering many casualties in this area, but by all reports, Russia’s losses are significant. I don’t understand how they can continue these attacks with this level of failure, and at some point, I imagine they have to stop.
Near New York, Russia is attacking the fortified train station of Mayorsk (19) and New York itself (20). This area is more or less the same as the pre-February 24th borders. Image
Near Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Vesele (21), Kamyanka (22), Pervomaiske (2), and Neveske (25). Russians claim Ukraine is attacking “Pisky,” an ambiguous statement because many things could be “Pisky.” Is Republica Mist Pisky? Is the Anthill Pisky? ImageImage
Speaking of which, the Anthill (A) is in the gray area right now. Russia doesn’t control it, but Ukraine’s control is fleeting and situational. Russia took Republica Mist near the beginning of the month, although the exact date is unknown. Image
There are videos of Russians attacking Pervomaiske and penetrating a few blocks into the town. These videos depict reconnaissance forces, not proper areas of control.
Often, the videos cut off abruptly at the end, likely because Ukraine identified and drove the recon back out of Pervomaiske. The defenders claim they have not lost any of their positions.
As such, it would seem logical that an attack on “Pisky” could be a Ukrainian attempt to take back Republica Mist (24), which is technically inside of Pisky and forms the outermost defense of Pervomaiske. However, it could also be a Ukrainian attempt to retake Anthill.
Furthermore, recently there were reports of Russia shelling “Pisky.” I believe these reports refer to the Anthill with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Oh, and in the recent past, there were Russian attacks on “Opytne and Vodyane,” which I interpreted as an attack on Anthill. Not quite. The easternmost portion of Vodyane touches the westernmost portion of Opytne, so this meant Russia was attacking the western part of Opytne.
A few kilometers south of Pisky, Russia continuously attacks Krasnohorivka (26) and Novo Mykhailivka (28). There are also minor attacks toward Pobjeda (27). In addition, Russians claim to have entered the town of Novomykhailivka this weekend, I do not have any confirmation. Image
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine is attacking south from Hulyaipole toward Polohy (29). They expanded the gray area south toward Polohy, but I do not believe they have liberated any towns or significant defensive positions. Image
I am focusing this update on military activity, but I will state that Russia is launching nightly terrorist attacks on Zaporizhzhia, which have destroyed hundreds of homes and murdered dozens of civilians. Image
Russia appears to have stabilized the Kherson front. Russia seems to have forces near Davydiv Brid (B), and I believe Bezimenne is contested (C ). Ukraine Liberated the towns of Nova Kamyanka (D) and Tryfonivka (E), but I do not know how far south Ukraine has gone from Dudchany. ImageImage
Closer to Mykolaiv, Russia attacked Liubomyrivka (30) and Ternovi Pody (31). However, they seem to have succeeded in Ternovi Pody and may have actually captured it. ImageImage
Finally, I am sure everyone knows about a piece of news already: the Kerch Bridge suffered severe damage on October 8th. The cause of the damage is unproven, but it is likely the result of a truck bomb, also called a VBIED (by insufferable nerds).
The damage destroyed several sections of one-half of the bridge and caused severe damage to one of the two train tracks.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Mar 6
While Trump’s team spreads defeatism and tries to blackmail Ukraine into surrender, Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield remain unimpressed by the proclamations coming out of Washington Oblast.

Their actions speak louder than words.
In recent days, Ukraine has:

Recaptured Kotlyne
Liberated Pischane
Pushed into Shevchenko

These gains prove two critical points.
🔹 First: Ukraine still has the ability to seize the initiative.

Despite immense challenges, its military can concentrate forces, execute counterattacks, and maintain operational momentum—suggesting it retains significant reserves.

If the West falters, Ukraine can continue fighting until Russia collapses. Slowly trading land against Russian offensive potentials.

If the West finds its backbone, Ukraine can decisively defeat Russia and end the war on just terms.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 13
Europe could have invested 1-2 hundred billion dollars over the past 3 years, but instead they will have to invest 3-5 trillion over the next 20. I’ve talked about this many times in the past. The politicians made very unwise decisions because they were afraid.
Should have gone 100% all in on making Ukraine win from day 1. Full on everything. It would have fixed every problem. Countries still aren’t even doing this. Every single day you delay will cost you 100 or 1000 times more over the next few years.
You thought it cost too much to squeeze 20-30 billion dollars into your budget for 5 years. Imagine having to fit in 500 billion.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
There is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, at all, for any reason, in the year 2025. Any negotiations should start in mid 2026, when the Russian economy has imploded, their deficits are blasting off to the moon, and Russia can no longer fight.
Every country should be looking at the situation like this: we only have to get ukraine through the next 12-18 months. We need to throw in the money, weapons, and ammo available now to make this happen. This is not a forever war. There is 1 year left. We are 75% done.
Russia will have absolutely no ability to wage war in the year 2027. Zero ability. Bringing the war into 2027 should be the threat to Russia. If we supply Ukraine through to that time period, Russia risks absolute implosion.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 5
This little bulldozer effectively negated the impact of the russian airforce on the Ukrainian supply lines south of Kostyantynopil. Russians were dropping tremendous numbers of bombs in an attempt to destroy the bridges, and this little guy is out here rebuilding them and getting rid of craters. It took a solid hit from a FPV Drone, but the driver wasn't there when it happened. Little guy denied the impact of the airforce for a few thousand dollars. This is why Engineering fundraisers are vital.Image
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Here you can see some of the airstrikes.
Also, it takes a significant amount of bravery to go out there on a bulldozer and fix these damaged bridges. You are very exposed. And, hopefully, the bulldozer is reliable because you don't want to be messing around out there.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1
Russians will tell you they want peace.

They do not.

The Russian government believes peace is submitting to their will and becoming a slave. And any slave who disobeys must be destroyed.

Russians do not want peace. They want to rule.

The Russian government must be destroyed Image
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this is what their so called peace looks like Image
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Read 7 tweets
Jan 28
The American people said “we don’t like inflation!” and had a choice between two presidents.

Option A said their goal was to attack the source of inflation so the economic conditions that lead to rapid rise in costs wont happen again.

Option B said their plan was to increase inflation by at least 50%.

And America voted for option B.
You have to understand the consequences of your actions here. You had one political movement that wanted to shift focus away from corporations and onto the people. You may not have liked everything about the current state of that movement, but the movement existed.
And while it existed, you could have used your votes to influence it, and push it into the direction you liked. Maybe you like x and y but not z. You could influence that.

But instead, you voted for oligarchy.
Read 4 tweets

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