Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 10, 2022 26 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Update for October 7-9 ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update…
Here is my update for October 7th through October 9th. #ukrdailyupdate

Not much happened on the 7th, and on the 8th and 9th, I was sick, so it was published today, on the 10th.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com Image
In the Kharkiv area, Russia launched several minor attacks on the border region (1,2), which accomplished nothing. Russia launched airstrikes from Russian airspace and fired missiles into Kharkiv city. Image
In the general Kupyansk area, Ukraine liberated a line of towns moving in a northeasterly direction toward Stelmakhivka (3). On the other hand, Russia is hurriedly digging defenders in the village of Kolomyichkha (4) to defend Svatove, which is dangerously close to the front line Image
Near Lyman, Russia pushed a minor attack west toward Terny (5), achieving nothing. They also build defenses in Pshenychne (6) and within the forests north of Rubizhne (7). Image
North of Bakhmut, Russia is desperately trying to attack but suffering very high casualties. There are attacks near Vyimka (8), Bilohorivka (9), Soledar (10), Bakhmutske (11), Krasna Hora (12), and Bakhmut (13) itself. Image
Russia is trying to maneuver around Soledar because the defenses are too strong to break through, but moving through the fields around the town leaves their forces exposed to artillery fire and heavy machine guns.
South of Bakhmut, the situation is a little different. Russia advanced to the garbage dump (14), and they attacked Ivanhrad and Opytne through the newly captured Vesela Dolyna (15) and Zaitseve (16). Image
They are also attacking the tiny hamlet of Andriivka (17) and the general Kurdyumivka/Ozarianivka area (18). Image
These events threaten the southern flank of Bakhmut, and I have heard many differing accounts about the city’s status, but I do not feel the city is in any real danger at this point.
Ukraine is suffering many casualties in this area, but by all reports, Russia’s losses are significant. I don’t understand how they can continue these attacks with this level of failure, and at some point, I imagine they have to stop.
Near New York, Russia is attacking the fortified train station of Mayorsk (19) and New York itself (20). This area is more or less the same as the pre-February 24th borders. Image
Near Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Vesele (21), Kamyanka (22), Pervomaiske (2), and Neveske (25). Russians claim Ukraine is attacking “Pisky,” an ambiguous statement because many things could be “Pisky.” Is Republica Mist Pisky? Is the Anthill Pisky? ImageImage
Speaking of which, the Anthill (A) is in the gray area right now. Russia doesn’t control it, but Ukraine’s control is fleeting and situational. Russia took Republica Mist near the beginning of the month, although the exact date is unknown. Image
There are videos of Russians attacking Pervomaiske and penetrating a few blocks into the town. These videos depict reconnaissance forces, not proper areas of control.
Often, the videos cut off abruptly at the end, likely because Ukraine identified and drove the recon back out of Pervomaiske. The defenders claim they have not lost any of their positions.
As such, it would seem logical that an attack on “Pisky” could be a Ukrainian attempt to take back Republica Mist (24), which is technically inside of Pisky and forms the outermost defense of Pervomaiske. However, it could also be a Ukrainian attempt to retake Anthill.
Furthermore, recently there were reports of Russia shelling “Pisky.” I believe these reports refer to the Anthill with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Oh, and in the recent past, there were Russian attacks on “Opytne and Vodyane,” which I interpreted as an attack on Anthill. Not quite. The easternmost portion of Vodyane touches the westernmost portion of Opytne, so this meant Russia was attacking the western part of Opytne.
A few kilometers south of Pisky, Russia continuously attacks Krasnohorivka (26) and Novo Mykhailivka (28). There are also minor attacks toward Pobjeda (27). In addition, Russians claim to have entered the town of Novomykhailivka this weekend, I do not have any confirmation. Image
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine is attacking south from Hulyaipole toward Polohy (29). They expanded the gray area south toward Polohy, but I do not believe they have liberated any towns or significant defensive positions. Image
I am focusing this update on military activity, but I will state that Russia is launching nightly terrorist attacks on Zaporizhzhia, which have destroyed hundreds of homes and murdered dozens of civilians. Image
Russia appears to have stabilized the Kherson front. Russia seems to have forces near Davydiv Brid (B), and I believe Bezimenne is contested (C ). Ukraine Liberated the towns of Nova Kamyanka (D) and Tryfonivka (E), but I do not know how far south Ukraine has gone from Dudchany. ImageImage
Closer to Mykolaiv, Russia attacked Liubomyrivka (30) and Ternovi Pody (31). However, they seem to have succeeded in Ternovi Pody and may have actually captured it. ImageImage
Finally, I am sure everyone knows about a piece of news already: the Kerch Bridge suffered severe damage on October 8th. The cause of the damage is unproven, but it is likely the result of a truck bomb, also called a VBIED (by insufferable nerds).
The damage destroyed several sections of one-half of the bridge and caused severe damage to one of the two train tracks.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jun 9
Seeing Russia use BM-35 to attack the front line is funny. These drones were supposed to take out Ukrainian logistics, the way ukrainian drones are destroying Russian logistics, but elon musk snapped his fingers and poof. Without America, Russian "technology" is garbage.
They use these things like molniya now. A mockery of their original purpose.
Whats funny is that Ukraine has taken their own Darts and Blyskavka and turned them into long range logistics hunters while Russia has them tied to the front line to blow up random houses.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 6
Russian telegram channels are going through their old videos editing out war crimes. Things they were once proud to show are being secretly removed. They apparently don’t realize their videos and messages are archived.
Example: here is a video uploaded April 10th, at 1:20 in the video you see of the deadliest terrorist attacks on Ukraine this year (filmed from far away, don't worry about gore or anything)
(i sincerely didn't think it would take telegram 1 metric eternity to download this video)

and here is the edited reupload, removing the terrorist attack
Read 7 tweets
May 23
For the past two years, we have discussed how Ukraine is building drones that can hit targets 100 to 150 kilometers away. These drones are being produced in enough numbers to disrupt Russian logistics. During this time, some people doubted this was possible, calling it too optimistic or asking, "Why can't Russians do the same thing?"

To me, the answers were clear. Ukraine has better technology across various forms of communication, either on its own or with allies' help. Starlink is one example, but it is not the only or even the most important one.

Ukraine also has more experience and stronger command-and-control systems for drones. While these systems are not perfect, they are better than what Russia has, especially at the scale needed for this kind of operation.

Ukraine developed many different technologies and weapons in parallel, and for a good deal of time, none of these projects had much, if any, impact on the war itself. So, for a long time, it seemed nothing was happening, and this, along with Russia's media narrative (and the profound willingness of people to fall for Russian propaganda), led many to believe Russia was inevitably winning, which was never true, and is certainly untrue now.

Now, these technologies and weapons have reached the front line at about the same time, within a few weeks or months of each other. Some are better or more specialized than others, and some will be countered or may fail. Still, the fact that they all appeared together makes it very hard for Russia to adapt and stop them.

Ukraine will be able to send very cheap drones with a range of over 100 kilometers into Russia's rear areas. These drones can be guided by many different methods to hit every important target at first, and probably, in time, every target.

Russia has already had to close some roads and routes because of the threat. This is just the start. The danger will only grow as Ukraine increases production over time. These drones are cheap and easy to make, and Ukraine will produce them in large numbers. Russia does not have any technology that can handle this threat right now.

SHORAD can create small protected areas, but if it is used often, it will eventually be destroyed.

Electronic warfare probably will not solve the problem, but it might help a little.

Nets along highways will help, but only slightly. And nets can pose risks and hazards of their own. When they collapse, they can close roads, forcing vehicles through chokepoints that can be mined and attacked.

Interceptor drones can work, but they need a lot of resources that would otherwise go to offensive operations.

The Russian military is dealing with a problem no army has faced before, and there is no clear solution. Their best option is to spread supplies across many vehicles and use every possible road and path to move them forward. However, this is very inefficient and only helps as much as Ukraine's drone production allows.
The "russia will figure it out" crowd should sit down and give me your list of excuses for how Russia still doesn't have heavy bombers after more than 4 years of trying to replicate them.
Russia doesn't have an answer to bombers or their own bomber. They have nothing. And you think they can solve strike drones? Something an order of magnitude harder to develop and harder to stop? On what basis do you think this? It is just cope.
Read 5 tweets
May 22
Russians waving flags in Verkhnia Tersa, a lesser known highly pro-Ukrainian town in Zaporizhzhia. I remember reading the news story about the first civilian KIA in this town, and how shocking it was to them, in 2023 I think. Seeing the place like this now is sad.

47.695845, 36.086336Image
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47.692360, 36.081397 Image
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47.692939, 36.084317 Image
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Read 8 tweets
Apr 29
Here is translated text from Al Ta about the situation in Ukraine. He is a Russian propagandist, a soviet anti-Putinist who views reviving the full Soviet Union (including Poland) as the primary number one goal of this war. He's also pretty honest about the situation. Its long. (racial slurs and whatnot are removed btw)
Preservation of one’s own forces and resources (including manpower).

On paper, everything looks neat and classical: we strike the enemy at its foundations and core, while we ourselves conserve strength and wait for the right moment for a decisive blow. But in reality, everything is both simpler and more complicated at the same time.

If you think through the basic principles of a classical war of attrition, then at the initial stage, when the enemy’s potential is being destroyed, when strikes are delivered against its economy, communications, and supply routes for raw materials and weapons, the side that holds the initiative should remain on the defensive, abandoning unimportant territories and максимально protecting its soldiers. This attrition is carried out through the remote destruction of the enemy’s potential.
Strictly speaking, the correct strategy in such a war should include:

1. Readiness for total and continuous mobilization.
We remember that this kind of war is one of mobilizing all the strength of the people. Total mobilization is necessary to achieve a manpower advantage, which should allow final military actions to be carried out quickly once the enemy’s ability to resist is completely broken. In addition, prolonged combat, even in a well-organized defense, still leads to losses, which are unavoidable. Therefore, there is a constant need to replenish the front with personnel.

2. Readiness for total destruction and the deaths of the enemy’s civilian population (and your own, if the enemy is not weaker than you).
It is extremely difficult, more likely impossible, to “delicately” destroy a country’s economic foundation. Therefore, a country that begins such a war must be prepared to act decisively and harshly. This is the price of survival.

3. Defense as the foundation of the first phase of such a war.
Preserving soldiers’ lives is the key to a future victorious offensive. It is physically impossible to conserve personnel while conducting offensive operations. Many are familiar with the standard ratios required for an attacking force to outnumber a defending one. Even taking into account more advanced and destructive weapons, the need for such a ratio remains, it will never be 1:1. In essence, the main function of troops (infantry supported by tanks, artillery, and aviation) in such a war is to occupy territories where the enemy can no longer resist. Frontal or stubborn assaults are not characteristic of a war of attrition.

4. Seizing territory in the initial and main stages of such a war is not the primary objective.
Territory should be taken either after the course of the war has been turned and the enemy’s ability to resist has been broken, or through the imposition of postwar conditions.

5. Emphasis on firepower.
The enemy should be subjected to an overwhelming barrage of destructive force using every possible means. Everything available should be directed at the target. Naturally, this places emphasis on highly destructive weapons: artillery and aviation. The nature of the current war has also added UAVs (unmanned systems). We already see strike systems in the air and at sea, and soon ground systems will be added.
The goal is to inflict unacceptable losses on the enemy before you yourself suffer unacceptable losses. If you like, it resembles a boxing match: both sides exchange blows, but in the end the stronger one wins. At the same time, for every artillery shot fired at you, ten should be fired in return; for every drone launched, ten drones should respond. Only this way.
Yet, for example, by the results of March 2026, “so-called Ukraine” surpassed us in the number of drones launched at our territory.
Each of you can compare these principles with what is actually happening at the front. After all, “we haven’t even started yet,” if some leaders are to be believed.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 30
I want to start by saying I don’t have access to official documents or meetings, so I’m piecing together their motivations based on what I observe and logical reasoning. Keep that in mind as you read on.

This year, Russia's goals are threefold. First, to capture the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Second, to capture Kostyantynivka. Third, to capture Slovyansk.

Each of these goals has necessary steps. To capture the bank in Zaporizhzhia, you must first capture Orikhiv. To capture Slovyansk, you must first capture Lyman. You could argue that to capture Kostyantynivka, you must first capture Chasiv Yar.

These goals are very ambitious and, honestly, impossible to fully achieve. So let’s think of them as aspirations and focus instead on how close Russia might get to reaching them.Image
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Ukraine launched several counterattacks in the Verbove and Ternove areas of Zaporizhzhia. They were quite successful, pushing Russia out of several settlements and possibly capturing some. This also threatened Russia’s main supply route to the west. Because of this, Russia has to do two things: divert resources from their main attack to stabilize the area and try to recapture this ground to keep pushing west toward Orikhiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine gains time to strengthen defenses, plan their strategy, and prepare for more counterattacks, something Russia worries about given their timeline.

This has already delayed Russia’s offensive by months, and it will take many more weeks for them to regain their previous position.Image
Recently, Russia tried an armored assault on Orikhiv, which failed badly (A). They also tried to advance through Mala Tokmachka (B) before, but that failed too. A direct attack on Orikhiv is unlikely to succeed without heavy losses, so Russia wants to avoid it unless they have no choice. Still, based on past experience, they might end up having to take the town this way.Image
Read 10 tweets

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