In the Kharkiv area, Russia launched several minor attacks on the border region (1,2), which accomplished nothing. Russia launched airstrikes from Russian airspace and fired missiles into Kharkiv city.
In the general Kupyansk area, Ukraine liberated a line of towns moving in a northeasterly direction toward Stelmakhivka (3). On the other hand, Russia is hurriedly digging defenders in the village of Kolomyichkha (4) to defend Svatove, which is dangerously close to the front line
Near Lyman, Russia pushed a minor attack west toward Terny (5), achieving nothing. They also build defenses in Pshenychne (6) and within the forests north of Rubizhne (7).
North of Bakhmut, Russia is desperately trying to attack but suffering very high casualties. There are attacks near Vyimka (8), Bilohorivka (9), Soledar (10), Bakhmutske (11), Krasna Hora (12), and Bakhmut (13) itself.
Russia is trying to maneuver around Soledar because the defenses are too strong to break through, but moving through the fields around the town leaves their forces exposed to artillery fire and heavy machine guns.
South of Bakhmut, the situation is a little different. Russia advanced to the garbage dump (14), and they attacked Ivanhrad and Opytne through the newly captured Vesela Dolyna (15) and Zaitseve (16).
They are also attacking the tiny hamlet of Andriivka (17) and the general Kurdyumivka/Ozarianivka area (18).
These events threaten the southern flank of Bakhmut, and I have heard many differing accounts about the city’s status, but I do not feel the city is in any real danger at this point.
Ukraine is suffering many casualties in this area, but by all reports, Russia’s losses are significant. I don’t understand how they can continue these attacks with this level of failure, and at some point, I imagine they have to stop.
Near New York, Russia is attacking the fortified train station of Mayorsk (19) and New York itself (20). This area is more or less the same as the pre-February 24th borders.
Near Avdiivka, Russia is attacking Vesele (21), Kamyanka (22), Pervomaiske (2), and Neveske (25). Russians claim Ukraine is attacking “Pisky,” an ambiguous statement because many things could be “Pisky.” Is Republica Mist Pisky? Is the Anthill Pisky?
Speaking of which, the Anthill (A) is in the gray area right now. Russia doesn’t control it, but Ukraine’s control is fleeting and situational. Russia took Republica Mist near the beginning of the month, although the exact date is unknown.
There are videos of Russians attacking Pervomaiske and penetrating a few blocks into the town. These videos depict reconnaissance forces, not proper areas of control.
Often, the videos cut off abruptly at the end, likely because Ukraine identified and drove the recon back out of Pervomaiske. The defenders claim they have not lost any of their positions.
As such, it would seem logical that an attack on “Pisky” could be a Ukrainian attempt to take back Republica Mist (24), which is technically inside of Pisky and forms the outermost defense of Pervomaiske. However, it could also be a Ukrainian attempt to retake Anthill.
Furthermore, recently there were reports of Russia shelling “Pisky.” I believe these reports refer to the Anthill with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Oh, and in the recent past, there were Russian attacks on “Opytne and Vodyane,” which I interpreted as an attack on Anthill. Not quite. The easternmost portion of Vodyane touches the westernmost portion of Opytne, so this meant Russia was attacking the western part of Opytne.
A few kilometers south of Pisky, Russia continuously attacks Krasnohorivka (26) and Novo Mykhailivka (28). There are also minor attacks toward Pobjeda (27). In addition, Russians claim to have entered the town of Novomykhailivka this weekend, I do not have any confirmation.
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Ukraine is attacking south from Hulyaipole toward Polohy (29). They expanded the gray area south toward Polohy, but I do not believe they have liberated any towns or significant defensive positions.
I am focusing this update on military activity, but I will state that Russia is launching nightly terrorist attacks on Zaporizhzhia, which have destroyed hundreds of homes and murdered dozens of civilians.
Russia appears to have stabilized the Kherson front. Russia seems to have forces near Davydiv Brid (B), and I believe Bezimenne is contested (C ). Ukraine Liberated the towns of Nova Kamyanka (D) and Tryfonivka (E), but I do not know how far south Ukraine has gone from Dudchany.
Closer to Mykolaiv, Russia attacked Liubomyrivka (30) and Ternovi Pody (31). However, they seem to have succeeded in Ternovi Pody and may have actually captured it.
Finally, I am sure everyone knows about a piece of news already: the Kerch Bridge suffered severe damage on October 8th. The cause of the damage is unproven, but it is likely the result of a truck bomb, also called a VBIED (by insufferable nerds).
The damage destroyed several sections of one-half of the bridge and caused severe damage to one of the two train tracks.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.
I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.