After the strike on the Kerch Bridge, it was expected Putin would respond.
He did so by launching 84+ missiles & dozens of drones against Ukrainian civilian targets (an initial assessment) and making more threatening speeches.
A 🧵on that & thoughts on air defense. 1/
He did so by launching 84+ missiles & dozens of drones against Ukrainian civilian targets (an initial assessment) and making more threatening speeches.
A 🧵on that & thoughts on air defense. 1/
As I said in a weekend tweet, the operational strike on the Kerch Bridge resulted in strategic implications.
-Militarily, it affects RU's belief they have a secure line of communication for logistics in a safe area.
-It also negatively affects RU ability to move forces. 2/
-Militarily, it affects RU's belief they have a secure line of communication for logistics in a safe area.
-It also negatively affects RU ability to move forces. 2/
RU is now constrained in using the bridge for transport & resupply, and now must use either ship transport to Berydansk or the M4 road from Rostov.
Informationally the RU's - & RU's in Crimea - know about the strike. They can't understand how this "defended" asset was hit. 3/
Informationally the RU's - & RU's in Crimea - know about the strike. They can't understand how this "defended" asset was hit. 3/
And Putin is - what's the psychiatric term? - pissed!
Reacting w/ missiles/drones costing millions against civilian targets w/ no affect on UKR military capability shows remains a one-trick pony: commit war crimes w/o attaining any strategic objective.4/
washingtonpost.com/business/putin…
Reacting w/ missiles/drones costing millions against civilian targets w/ no affect on UKR military capability shows remains a one-trick pony: commit war crimes w/o attaining any strategic objective.4/
washingtonpost.com/business/putin…
Those on twitter reacted as we would expect experts on twitter to react: CLOSE THE SKY...PROVIDE MORE AIR DEFENSE!
An understandable reaction, but it may be good to analyze how those recommended actions are extremely difficult to achieve in the short (or even long) term. 5/
An understandable reaction, but it may be good to analyze how those recommended actions are extremely difficult to achieve in the short (or even long) term. 5/
I'll start by saying "defend the air from missiles & rocket attacks" sounds easy, but it's extremely - EXTREMELY - difficult.
As a proud 1983 graduate of the US Army Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Captain's Course (don't ask, it's a long story), I learned just how difficult. 6/
As a proud 1983 graduate of the US Army Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Captain's Course (don't ask, it's a long story), I learned just how difficult. 6/
It's impossible to replicate the "Missile Command" video game...that isn't real life (I know, I'm dating myself).
That's because modern ADA:
-has limited range
-are extremely complex
-are very expensive
-mostly defend prioritized & "fixed targets." 7/
science.howstuffworks.com/patriot-missil…
That's because modern ADA:
-has limited range
-are extremely complex
-are very expensive
-mostly defend prioritized & "fixed targets." 7/
science.howstuffworks.com/patriot-missil…
Many believe emplacing ADA systems (like the Patriot) will results in an inpenetrable curtain against enemy missiles.
Nothing is further from the truth.
To work, military planners must consider a few things before emplacing different types of air defense systems: 8/
Nothing is further from the truth.
To work, military planners must consider a few things before emplacing different types of air defense systems: 8/
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