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Dwarkesh Patel

@dwarkesh_sp

Oct 10, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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@AlvaroDeMenard

.@AlvaroDeMenard is one of my best bloggers out there.

Here are excerpts from my favorite posts:

"Are Experts Real?"

"Having Had No Predecessor to Imitate, He Had No Successor Capable of Imitating Him"

"On the Pension Apocalypse"

"Princeton Cemetery"

"Book Review: The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire"

"Two Paths to the Future"

Are Experts Real: fantasticanachronism.com/2021/01/11/are…
Having Had No Predecessor: fantasticanachronism.com/2020/01/17/hav…
Pension Apocalypse: fantasticanachronism.com/2021/06/14/on-…
Princeton Cemetery: fantasticanachronism.com/2021/03/22/pri…
Decline & Fall of Roman Empire: fantasticanachronism.com/2021/04/28/boo…
Two Path to Future: fantasticanachronism.com/2021/03/23/two…

mean to say "the best"*

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More from @dwarkesh_sp

Dwarkesh Patel

@dwarkesh_sp

Jun 2

https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1925673798277243279

New blog post where I explain why I disagree with this, and why I have slightly longer timelines to AGI than many of my guests.

I think continual learning is a huge bottleneck to the usefulness of these models, and extended computer use may take years to sort out.

L-nk below.

https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1925673798277243279

When we do solve human like continual learning, however, we might see a broadly deployed intelligence explosion *even if there's no more algorithmic progress*.

Simply from the AI amalgamating the on-the-job experience of all the copies broadly deployed through the economy.

I'd bet 2028 for computer use agents that can do taxes end-to-end for my small business as well as a competent general manager could in a week: including chasing down all the receipts on different websites, emailing back and forth for invoices, and filing to the IRS

Read 4 tweets

Dwarkesh Patel

@dwarkesh_sp

Apr 21

New blog post: Questions about the future of AI

A 6,000-word clusterfuck of considerations about economics, history, training, investment, and more.

Thread of select questions below:

Why don't we spend more on RL?

What happens in the panspermia timeline?

Read 13 tweets

Dwarkesh Patel

@dwarkesh_sp

Jan 31

New post

Everyone is sleeping on the *collective* advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ - they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled, and evolved in ways humans simply can't.

I talk about how a firm of AGIs might work.

1. Copy

2. Merge

3. Scale

Read 6 tweets

Dwarkesh Patel

@dwarkesh_sp

Mar 4, 2024

Some notes I wrote while reading Part 1 of Daniel Yergin’s The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power.

If you know Yergin, tell him I'd love to have him on my podcast!

The scaling laws paper moment in oil:

"Fascinating that the only people Rockefeller thought talented, hard-nosed, and pragmatic enough to manage his oil empire were the people who dared to compete against him."

Read 11 tweets

Dwarkesh Patel

@dwarkesh_sp

Nov 21, 2023

I still haven't heard a good answer to this question, on or off the podcast.

AI researchers often tell me, "Don't worry bout it, scale solves this."

But what is the rebuttal to someone who argues that this indicates a fundamental limitation?

https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1688916080700555264

Full episode, for those interested:

https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1688916080700555264

examples of what I mean

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

Read 4 tweets

Dwarkesh Patel

@dwarkesh_sp

Oct 30, 2022

I read a lot of books for my podcast & blog.

But often I can't finding the particular passage I'm looking for.

Ctrl-F doesn't work unless you know the exact phrase.

So I built search for ebooks using OpenAI's embeddings API.

Link below to use.

Works surprisingly well!