Thread by @mortymer001

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg About the missing clear motive for blowing NS pipeline and low effect attack on Crimean bridge.

Both sabotages have similar fingerprints.

Both sabotages have low real impact on the event.

Both have HUGE policies change implications (!)

Explanation follows...

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg The Prime suspect in both is UK.

- UK very anti Russian
- US hesitant to escalate
- EU compromising

The #NS - signal to allies: "We can not trade with Russia, pay them to wage war, we must Unite against them! Pipes sanctioned, unused anyway, cost small compared to our case"

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg Note how Stoltenberg met with Ursula just hours before the blow happened. Next day new round of sanctioned happened.

0The RESPONSE to the Crimean bridge was expected to be brutal retaliation. Public is kept in anti Russian mood.

Summarize:

Both mission objectives succeeded.

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg Both sabotages had minimal impact on the conflict itself yet both were able to direct the response of actors in predetermined expected directions.

While the NordStream sabotage brought Allies TOGETHER the following sabotage brought them further AGAINST Russia.

Risks are great.

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg So the case must be of high criticality.

“When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

SUSPECTS and the elimination process:

There is just a bunch of them, many reasons why some have aliby.

Let's look at it..

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg 1. st division:
- Russian
- NATO members
- Non-NATO members

Baltic sea is highly guarded EU water business artery. Non-NATO members would have hard time to get in and out.
This excludes Israel, India, China, Japan, etc...

The only Russian motive I could think of is to being...

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg bring havoc in between NATO members, sealed EU. But would they blow the pipe deliberately in place where investigation is hardest so they are excluded? It was very hard to get EIA (environmental impact analysis from DK, so blowing it close makes it impossible to rebuild). The ...

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg profit is too huge for both RU, and GER. Russian gas fields are operational, there is no infrastructure in place for other possible customers, outlook to reconnect is uncertain, no closed deals, sanctioned tech makes it harder. EU is largest energy importer. Would Russia really..

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg destroy ties with best customers (49% shareholders are GER, NED, FRA) even a possibility of closing shipping for them via Denmark for long time?

What is left is NATO:
(USA, UK, NOR, FRA, GER, PL, EST, LAT, LIT). Let's eliminate!

No state with ports in Baltic sea would risk...

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg the huge political and economical disaster if others find out! This excludes SWE, FIN, EST, LAT, LIT, PL, GER, NED. Supportive arguments... Would it be Baltic state trio Russia could respond without triggering NATO article 5 (attacked first). Poland could be also pointed in this.

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg despite their rhetoric, they are weak and they would be crashed by a joint anger of Germany and Russia.

Next supportive argument - NordStream shareholder states want to protect their investment, not destroy it. It was snowballed but not financially written off as dead asset yet.

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg These are FRA, NED and Germany. I do exclude the German's sabotage. The prospect of political leverage they would get if reopening is too tempting. As entry for RU gas to EU they could leverage their position.

Who is left? USA, UK and NOR !

Norway it is not. At the moment they

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg enjoy greatest best times, largest profits, all they exports is bid up oversold. No need to be too greedy and Russia could knock them out easy. No self defence. Only nukes guarantee that, right???

So USA and UK.... and Ukraine!

Ukraine we can safely exclude. Best alibi of all !

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg If Ukraine destroyed the Notdstream Europe would immediately it all support. France, Germany and Netherland would be furious. & Russia would leverage that "Hey! look, we told ya they r terrorists!"

So again, we are left with 2 nuclear powers. Only nukes guarantee there is not..

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg gonna to be a response. Would Russia counter with Nuke? No. But it can not strike conventionally as then it is unpredictable if UK/USA would be sane and not to strike. Escalation risk is too strong. Russian response space is limited.

Why not USA? At the navy exercise it was ...

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg disclosed to public that US helicopters (with submarine detection capabilities) were tracking some sub. It is unknown whose. Shortly after US informs Germany that there is a possibility of sabotage against Notdstream.

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg Would we know the window of opportunity we could guess if this was a mapping/feasibility study mission or if it was a first attempt.

This action showcases that IS originally did not know but learned. Perhaps they were able to detect exact acoustic print of a UK sub and match it?

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg Interestingly. Next we know that 3, 4 days before the Monday's night the Denmark was on alert. Their listening station at Bornholn seen/heard something. Due to joint protection with SWE a surface vessel was sent to investigate. We see the path here, it was 2d, on Thu and on Fra..

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg Between 3---4 and 6---7 transponders were off. I assume SWE boat entered DK territorial waters without complicated permission and could do some recognizable anti-submarine moves.

It is visible how the sub operated in deeper waters NW, N and NE. The boat protects the deeper

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg Bornholm-SWE passage used for most maritime shipping.

The area SE is very shallow.

There is lots of ways how a sub could pass through the detection...

For example under own merchant boat or even under the navy vessel during the marine exercise...

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg There is another puzzle piece in this. The SWE boat supposedly went in direction of Kaliningrad.

It is unclear how many SWE, DK boats operated at this point there. Did they close off the area? Was the sub able to escape? Was it Russian returning to Kaliningrad? Or perhaps UK sub

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg which was passing by to hide in some deeper port of a friendly port of UK friendly country (Pl, LAT LIT).

Would Russia, knowing their sub was tracked on Thu-Fri proceed, be so stupid and then proceed on Monday with the sabotage?

Was the USA awac cycling the area around Kalin..

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg but also areas on shore Polish territorial waters. Note it is possible to track subs via magnetic changes from days. The US HAS evidence. Who else has evidence?

Denmark of course! Just 5 days after the Monday night blow the DK PM flies unexpectedly to London to meet Liz Truss.

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg This is also public info as seen on official statement here. There are two videos of the event, before and after. On both the body language is odd, perhaps I am reading in it too much?

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg here is the translation, not that she also meets with NATO Stoltenberg and EU commissioner president.

(btw, I find very interesting Stoltenberg meets Ursula the day of the blast, coincidence? warning? information how to handle? damage ctrl?)

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg So is UK the suspect?

Who would benefit and why?

Is the motive the physical destruction of NS or is the motive rose ere ties between continental Europe and Russia?

When did US learned about it?
How much they approved, could they stop or did they decide to go ahead?

Questions

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg Was the Polish "Thank you USA" for them green lighting the operation?
Was Poland co-conspirator and his the sub?

Who knows. Perhaps.
Perhaps this "working suspect" is totally off, perhaps we get bullet-proof evidence which frames some state actor.

Perhaps it is too political.

@bidetmarxman @KitKlarenberg What I personally think is that this "possible" scenario has its merits. Right now with No Evidence Available - educated guess/indirect evidence is the only thing we have...

We shall see look at actions of victims and possible suspects.