En 1991, Stephan Eicher chantait: "J'abandonne sur une chaise le journal du matin.
Les nouvelles sont mauvaises d'où qu'elles viennent"...
Cela pourrait constituer un bon résumé de l'outlook du #FMI publié aujourd'hui...
Les nouvelles sont mauvaises d'où qu'elles viennent"...
Cela pourrait constituer un bon résumé de l'outlook du #FMI publié aujourd'hui...
Extraits:
"Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 % in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. THIS IS THE WEAKEST GROWTH PROFILE SINCE 2001 EXCEPT FOR THE GFC AND THE ACUTE PHASE OF THE COVID 19 PANDEMIC..."
"Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 % in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. THIS IS THE WEAKEST GROWTH PROFILE SINCE 2001 EXCEPT FOR THE GFC AND THE ACUTE PHASE OF THE COVID 19 PANDEMIC..."
"And reflects significativement slowdown for the largest economies: a US GDP contraction in the H1 2022, à Euro area contraction in the H2 2022, and prolonged COVID 19 outbreaks and lockdowns in China with a growing property sector crisis"
..."Risks to the Outlook remain unusually large and to the downside.
-Monetary policy could miscalculate the right stance to reduce inflation.
-Policy paths in the largest economies could continue to diverge, leading to further US$ appreciation and cross border tensions..."
-Monetary policy could miscalculate the right stance to reduce inflation.
-Policy paths in the largest economies could continue to diverge, leading to further US$ appreciation and cross border tensions..."
"-More energy and food prices schocks might cause inflation to persist for longer.
-Global tightening in financing conditions could trigger widespread emerging market debt distress.
-Halting gas supplies by Russia could depress output in Europe..."
-Global tightening in financing conditions could trigger widespread emerging market debt distress.
-Halting gas supplies by Russia could depress output in Europe..."
"-A resurgence in COVID 19 or new global health scares mighr further stunt growth.
- A worsening of China's property sector crisis could spill over to the domestic banking sector and weigh heavily on the country's growth, with negative cross border effects..."
- A worsening of China's property sector crisis could spill over to the domestic banking sector and weigh heavily on the country's growth, with negative cross border effects..."
"-And geopolitical fragmentation could impede trade and capital flows, further hindering climate policy cooperation..."
"THE BALANCE OF RISKS IS TILTED FIRMLY TO THE DOWNSIDE, WITH A 25% CHANCE OF ONE YEAR AHEAD GLOBAL GROWTH FALLING BELOW 2% - IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF GLOBAL GROWTH OUTRUNS SINCE 1970"!!!
L'avant propos résume :"In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession."
On ne pourra pas dire qu'on ne nous a pas prévenus!
On ne pourra pas dire qu'on ne nous a pas prévenus!
@UnrollHelper pls unroll
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
