Thread by @althecat

[#HurricaneJulia remnants #extremeweather update - ongoing story.]

As expected #TSKarl #Invest93L is being torn apart wind shear over the gulf of Mexico and the Pacific (southern) part of this storm complex is moving rapidly away to the east.

The diurnal (night and day) solar energy cycle is playing a big part here so we will need to see what happens whe the sun comes up - a fight back is possible.

However model guidance is consistent that TS #Karl will be blown apart by shear and high pressure moving south.

This morning's latest GFS PWAT run shows how this is expected to unfold.

Rain forecast plot solutions for 72/144/201 & 384 hours. Most of the forecast rain over already saturated Central America will fall over the next six days.

All that being said, the diurnal (night and day) cycle is playing a big part here so we will need to see what happens whe the sun comes up - already the North Western quadrant of #Karl is working hard to restore the circulation.

(continuing thread - update on sunrise)

Here's a IR image of #KARL from CMISS with shear overlay.

Here's the official @NHC_Atlantic track and intensity guidance for KARL from @TropicalTidbits. The SHIP intensity model remains a consistent outlier.

Here's the RAMMB presentation of #Invest99e which is appears to be decaying after showing an indication of life - it is also moving into a higher shear area.

You can see the shear environment the storm is moving into in this image from CMISS [tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#]